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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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RkTec

RkTec

Posted
Posted

hope alive, nam did trend west.

still going on - hour 36

Hell of a difference from the 12Z run. Lets hope it holds or gets even better on the 0Z. Also glad to hear the Euro is still decent. :thumbsup:

Currently sitting at 34 degrees. First day some melting has occurred since last week.

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

another mt holly update

update point and click too

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Snow and sleet, mainly after 1pm. High near 31. Northeast wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. North wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

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ParanormalWx

ParanormalWx

Posted
Posted

For my area...I doubt that I see any rain or temps of 37F.

Tonight: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Rain and snow likely before 3pm, then rain. High near 37. Northeast wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 23. North wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

Wow, bummer - and just like that they decreased our totals as well:

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 23. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

My God, it is impossible to get a storm that can drop anymore than 5+" this season.

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PoconoD

PoconoD

Posted
Posted

another mt holly update

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

So the NAM has loosened up on the tight precip gradient to the north (southern Poconos) but Mt. Holly has cut the totals in half. I know they base it on more than just the NAM but up here the NAM went from

12Z = .12" to 18Z = .57". The 12Z GFS looked about .49" up here. I'll be curious to see how the 18Z GFS plays out.

D

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MonsoonMike

MonsoonMike

Posted
Posted

So the NAM has loosened up on the tight precip gradient to the north (southern Poconos) but Mt. Holly has cut the totals in half. I know they base it on more than just the NAM but up here the NAM went from

12Z = .12" to 18Z = .57". The 12Z GFS looked about .49" up here. I'll be curious to see how the 18Z GFS plays out.

D

I wouldn't get too excited about the NAM pushing precip. farther north. The NAM always tends to get a little juicy a day out, only to flip back the day of the event. Just being a realist and not getting myself excited. huh.gif

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't get too excited about the NAM pushing precip. farther north. The NAM always tends to get a little juicy a day out, only to flip back the day of the event. Just being a realist and not getting myself excited. huh.gif

This year it has seemed to be a little to far SE and a little dry (For my area) Thats why I wasnt expecting this to happen. Thought it would at 0z. Think it might be better too at 0z now.

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PoconoD

PoconoD

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't get too excited about the NAM pushing precip. farther north. The NAM always tends to get a little juicy a day out, only to flip back the day of the event. Just being a realist and not getting myself excited. huh.gif

Good point. You mentioned the NAM can sometimes be juicy the day before but I was looking at the GFS 12z @ around 1/2" and maybe the NAM trending in that direction. If the 18Z GFS comes in @ .50" or > for the southern Poconos, would you think it could be the NAM trending in that direction or are we still looking at the NAM's bias?

D

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WeatherGuide

WeatherGuide

Posted
Posted

My God, it is impossible to get a storm that can drop anymore than 5+" this season.

You do realize that this is quite normal. Large snowstorms around here are the exception and not the rule.. more common to get medium sized dumps of 4-6" a few times a year than anything more. Nothing out of the ordinary.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

You do realize that this is quite normal. Large snowstorms around here are the exception and not the rule.. more common to get medium sized dumps of 4-6" a few times a year than anything more. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Exactly. We've all been spoiled by either getting or seeing others get these big coastals the past few years.

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
Posted

Exactly. We've all been spoiled by either getting or seeing others get these big coastals the past few years.

amen. But what is unusual is the gradient of the storm events from east to west instead of north to south and the lack of mixing issues. OMG what will happen next year when the pattern returns to normal-- we will never hear the end of it from the NYC posters. I just hope the mods protect us like they are protecting them right now.

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PoconoD

PoconoD

Posted
Posted

Good point. You mentioned the NAM can sometimes be juicy the day before but I was looking at the GFS 12z @ around 1/2" and maybe the NAM trending in that direction. If the 18Z GFS comes in @ .50" or > for the southern Poconos, would you think it could be the NAM trending in that direction or are we still looking at the NAM's bias?

D

The 18Z GFS came in with about .45" of liquid here in the southern Poconos. The NAM from 12z today @ .12" to 18z @ .57 and the GFS @ .49" and .45" respectively tells me the models are coming into agreement on position of precip. I still am a little surprised how the gradient is that diverse from Southeast to Northwest. Maybe it's just me wishcasting. :huh:

D

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

The 18Z GFS came in with about .45" of liquid here in the southern Poconos. The NAM from 12z today @ .12" to 18z @ .57 and the GFS @ .49" and .45" respectively tells me the models are coming into agreement on position of precip. I still am a little surprised how the gradient is that diverse from Southeast to Northwest. Maybe it's just me wishcasting. :huh:

D

The gradient in Luzerne County alone goes from nothing to 5 inches of snow...

Nothing just n/w of me, 5 inches down at the Luzerne/Lackawanna/Carbon boarder.

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

I think the biggest frustration out of all this; given we were never meant to be in the jackpot zone, but this was going to be our storm. The models had it, everything. A good 6 - 12" for our area; also the most shown for any storm to date this season. Given within the past 24 hours nearly most models came back with the gradient lines from hell and sheared most of our area - we'll be lucky to see 2 - 4" out of this storm. And who wins in all this again - you got it, central NJ NE-ward. That is where the frustration in many lie.

EDIT: At this stage, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mt. Holly shave us down to a WWA down to about the bucks co. north / Delaware river West by 0z.

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