Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

[Boreal]

4 what? Nam runs? 4 hours?

I guess part of the idea of breaking out this sub-subforum was to give the S.Poc/NWNJ/LV folks a safe place to freak out. Its all good. We'll get our 3.5 to 4.5 inches, enjoy it, and get stoked for the next one.

[Boreal]

looks like the Friday night/Sat Clipper could bring a couple inches to the area.

[Noreaster07]

The NAM has been consistently wrong, I'm not worried about it yet

[lab94]

well, i guess its good new. They reissued the wsw for us out west

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1120 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY

EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-252300-

/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1000Z-110127T1200Z/

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-

LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...

FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...

ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN

1120 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

[lab94]

The NAM has been consistently wrong, I'm not worried about it yet

It was good with the cut off here the last 2 snow storms. Inside of 48. I would love to say it wasnt but I got 12" and 5 miles tomy east got 22-24" and it showed it. Hope its wrong

[RkTec]

well, i guess its good new. They reissued the wsw for us out west

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1120 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY

EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-252300-

/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1000Z-110127T1200Z/

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-

LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...

FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...

ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN

1120 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

Yep also added this to the end of it:

* CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 6 INCHES

IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS A LITTLE LESS

THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN STORM EVOLUTION.

CONFIDENCE FROM ALLENTOWN TO TRENTON FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER

EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

[lab94]

Yep also added this to the end of it:

* CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 6 INCHES

IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS A LITTLE LESS

THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN STORM EVOLUTION.

CONFIDENCE FROM ALLENTOWN TO TRENTON FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER

EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

Saw that, but I think they need atleast 50% poss. to keep them up. I hope, or they just dont want to take them down till the next depressing run.

[LVblizzard]

12z GGEM looks like a good hit for ABE east, but amounts drop quickly once you get west of there.

[Bulldawg]

Tired of getting the big miss on the last couple of storms. One of the other threads i was on had some guys showing the sweetspot of this storm from lancaster up through the lehigh valley. 6-9 was there call.

Had a dusting here this morning and a couple of flurries since. Nothing right now, just nice and cloudy.

Bethlehem, pa

[wederwarrior]

We will be able to see this snow in the daylight...a rarity this season.

[ParanormalWx]

We will be able to see this snow in the daylight...a rarity this season.

Yeah, but most of it falls in the darkness.

[Grothar]

I guess part of the idea of breaking out this sub-subforum was to give the S.Poc/NWNJ/LV folks a safe place to freak out. Its all good. We'll get our 3.5 to 4.5 inches, enjoy it, and get stoked for the next one.

Actually, it was a good idea to do this. But ladies and gentlemen, I think we need to keep this thread alive with models runs out 360 hours with wishful thinking like they do in NYC for a MECS.

By the way, we need to have our own have our own storms named like MEAS Major East Appalachian Storm

[_AR_]

Actually, it was a good idea to do this. But ladies and gentlemen, I think we need to keep this thread alive with models runs out 360 hours with wishful thinking like they do in NYC for a MECS.

By the way, we need to have our own have our own storms named like MEAS Major East Appalachian Storm

Haha.

Well, still looks good for a several inch snowfall possibility based on the 12Z GFS. Definitely still possible.

[ParanormalWx]

2 things that screw the LV and southern Poconos:

1) Tight gradients

2) Sharp cutoffs

So far we have the GEM, (GFS 4-8")

Against us is the NAM, RGEM, MM5

[Boreal]

Actually, it was a good idea to do this. But ladies and gentlemen, I think we need to keep this thread alive with models runs out 360 hours with wishful thinking like they do in NYC for a MECS.

By the way, we need to have our own have our own storms named like MEAS Major East Appalachian Storm

I like the storm naming idea---perhaps name each event after the member who receives the least amount of frozen precip. A/k/a PSUHazeltonWx Storm I, II, III, and IV .

[_AR_]

2 things that screw the LV and southern Poconos:

1) Tight gradients

2) Sharp cutoffs

So far we have the GEM, (GFS 4-8")

Against us is the NAM, RGEM, MM5

At leas a GFS solution doesnt have a very sharp gradient and has rain to our east. So it wouldn't feel so bad.

Fingers crossed.

Also FWIW, the 00Z WRF NMM and ARW were bringing precip well west into PA.

[Grothar]

I like the storm naming idea---perhaps name each event after the member who receives the least amount of frozen precip. A/k/a PSUHazeltonWx Storm I, II, III, and IV .

the way the last 2 winters have been, that actually makes sense

[Ej257 snow lover]

GGEM track looks great for LV....i wonder what the chances are that it tracks the low that close to the coast

[RkTec]

12Z GFS BUFKIT

ABE: 7.8"

AVP: 2.4"

RDG: 7.4"

MDT: 0.0" RNSN most of the time

EWR: 3.9"

[lab94]

well, dont look at the ARW or NMM if you in NEPA or NWNJ

[ParanormalWx]

Add the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and UK Met to the little or nothing models for the the LV

[goombatommy]

This is disheartening.

[rygar]

It's over guys.

[lab94]

It's over guys.

[ParanormalWx]

It's over guys.

Not over till they all go east. Euro is huge in a few minutes.

Kpantz is lurking....any thoughts Ken?

[Noreaster07]

12z FIM comes well NW of 00z last night

[Grothar]

This is disheartening.

Those are only guidance models not operational in my opinion. The GFS is the best model and the bufkit have shown otherwise. if this GFS changed, then I will admit we are screwed but the way this storm is acting- I really do not know. A Memphis low means snow for the LV- every time. This sounds to me like a now casting event and throw out all of the models

[bates]

Those are only guidance models not operational in my opinion. The GFS is the best model and the bufkit have shown otherwise. if this GFS changed, then I will admit we are screwed but the way this storm is acting- I really do not know. A Memphis low means snow for the LV- every time. This sounds to me like a now casting event and throw out all of the models

Would tend to agree with you. However, the troubling aspect this winter is how many times we've seen this movie already. My feeling is that the precip will be further north and west than currently modeled. However, given recent history, it's more than worrisome to see modeling again go with the sharp cut-off.

[ParanormalWx]

Euro held serve. 6-10" here in the LV...could be more with ratios.

[WeatherGuide]

I'm still sticking to 4-6" for a majority of the LV