Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

[LVblizzard]

I think the 12z runs will trend south and east a little to continue the seasonal trend of slamming NJ/NYC.

[rygar]

I do too. It has been 2 years of this, no reason to buck the recent trend in my opinion.

[ParanormalWx]

I think the 12z runs will trend south and east a little to continue the seasonal trend of slamming NJ/NYC.

They've been doing that with every storm that past 2 seasons starting in the 18-24 hours out time frame and it continues with the NAM

[mcgin]

For the first time this season the NAM has made me mad. If the rest of the 12z suite come in like that, I'm done till next year. And I hope NYC gets buried and the plow guys slack off again. That would be funny.

[goombatommy]

Wow, I bet the NJ/NYC folk are jumping with glee right now. That gradient is tighter than anything I've seen in a while. Screws not just i80 N+W, but screws the LHV as well, big time.

[Boreal]

measured .4" light, fluffy snow this AM in Martins Creek. Just got to work in Easton where they got at most .1-.2"

Over-performing event. By the way, I want that commute.

[goombatommy]

So, now that this is looking like a deteriorating threat for even the LHV, how is everyone elses morning so far with the .2" - which was more than expected we got this morning?

[Boreal]

Wow, I bet the NJ/NYC folk are jumping with glee right now. That gradient is tighter than anything I've seen in a while. Screws not just i80 N+W, but screws the LHV as well, big time.

Considering how far SE the NAM has been the last few days (notwithstanding last nights 0z run), I think there is still room for a jog further NW. Not to mention the fact that it is just one model. But as for the bi-seasonal trend of a tight gradient--no denying that one.

[NortheastPAWx]

If the NAM verifies...wake me up in April.

[goombatommy]

Considering how far SE the NAM has been the last few days (notwithstanding last nights 0z run), I think there is still room for a jog further NW. Not to mention the fact that it is just one model. But as for the bi-seasonal trend of a tight gradient--no denying that one.

I just got ripped apart in the Disc thread when I mentioned this was only one run - supposedly, the tight western gradient has happened since 0z last night. And now it appear to be trending back to "seasonal normal" perimeters.

[Boreal]

So, now that this is looking like a deteriorating threat for even the LHV, how is everyone elses morning so far with the .2" - which was more than expected we got this morning?

With all of these small events, consistently cold temperatures, ice-covered streams, lakes and ponds, and no substantial snows from coastals, this is truly beginning to feel like the northlands. It's not bad.

[ChescoWx]

I'm telling you this will be a nice hit for Berks County...remember this is the NAM...need I say more

This will trend NW and with the 18z and get closer to reality and of course lower QPF by 0z tonight

[goombatommy]

I'm telling you this will be a nice hit for Berks County...remember this is the NAM...need I say more

This will trend NW and with the 18z and get closer to reality and of course lower QPF by 0z tonight

Yea, for BERKS county, I was referring to the LHV and points on north, i80, etc. I live in west easton. The gradient is so tight through the LHV, that if I were to drive not eve 8 minutes to Bethlehem, you can go from 4" in easton to 2" in Bethlehem.

Oh well, back to the no higher than 5" storms for us!

[goombatommy]

and btw....

PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE

SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS

MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB

WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND

NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE.

FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES.

MORE AT 1115 AM.

[RkTec]

Based on the NAM Mt. Holly may have to flip their snow total forecast map 180 degrees.

Holding out hope that the remaining 12Z guidance comes in better for us.

[goombatommy]

Based on the NAM Mt. Holly may have to flip their snow total forecast map 180 degrees.

Holding out hope that the remaining 12Z guidance comes in better for us.

Then do not look at the 12z RGEM...

[Grothar]

You get 12"+ on the EURO...no reason to complain for you if you ask me.

I have that right to complain now. I guess what else is new? Time to lock it up and start looking at models that bring us t-storms

[blinkers88]

I have that right to complain now. I guess what else is new? Time to lock it up and start looking at models that bring us t-storms

It's actually snow we're talking about here. no need to get upset

[goombatommy]

I have that right to complain now. I guess what else is new? Time to lock it up and start looking at models that bring us t-storms

I second this PSU - it is time for us to complain as well. We'll be lucky to get 1 - 3" out of this down here in the LHV when it was originally forecast we wouldn't be too far off from the jackpot zone.

[penndotguy]

Just thought Id sneek in here, we just got our 10am update still going with 5-10" FWIW we will see, better get back before they miss me

[RkTec]

Today's 12Z NAM Bufkit

ABE: 0.0"

RDG: 0.0"

MDT: 0.0"

AVP: 0.0"

EWR: 14.6"

For kicks

PHL: 22.6"

PNE: 17.4"

JFK: 19.2"

TTN: 16.5"

LGA: 17.5"

DCA: 7.8"

IAD: 5.3"

BWI: 11.4"

ACY: 12.6"

[Grothar]

Today's 12Z NAM Bufkit

ABE: 0.0"

RDG: 0.0"

MDT: 0.0"

AVP: 0.0"

EWR: 14.6"

For kicks

PHL: 22.6"

PNE: 17.4"

JFK: 19.2"

TTN: 16.5"

LGA: 17.5"

DCA: 7.8"

IAD: 5.3"

BWI: 11.4"

ACY: 12.6"

Man, kick me in the b*&*% while I still have the shovel in my hand. After seeing this- no way is the gradient that tight t--- he 12Z Nam is on dope. Lets see the GFS come in that tight

[RkTec]

12Z GFS keeps the hope alive.

[goombatommy]

12z GFS looks a little better for us up here; even gets you into the mix PSU =p

[Boreal]

Man, kick me in the b*&*% while I still have the shovel in my hand. After seeing this- no way is the gradient that tight t--- he 12Z Nam is on dope. Lets see the GFS come in that tight

GFS is similar (for most of our area) to its 0z run. .3 to .7 qpf. (est.) Looks like a 3-6 event based on GFS. I am just hoping that we are still in the game once Nowcasting commences.

[wederwarrior]

why is everyone freakin after one run?...breathe in...breathe out

oh yeah its a weather board.

[rygar]

why is everyone freakin after one run?...breathe in...breathe out

oh yeah its a weather board.

it's 4 now dude.

[wederwarrior]

it's 4 now dude.

4 what? Nam runs? 4 hours?

[goombatommy]

4 what? Nam runs? 4 hours?

he meant 4 consecutive runs.

[ParanormalWx]

Didn't the NAM do very well with the tight gradients on some of the blizzards last year? I believe it did. I'm not jumping until 12z is done and maybe not even then.