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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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wederwarrior

wederwarrior

Posted
Posted

well lets divide it up right now---- those who hate NYC posters and those who hate PHL posters. thanks for making this worthwhile suggestion.

guys guys guys...there is no hate.

lets just focus on the fact that this might be our "big" one of the season. At least larger than the standard

And Grothar its really time that we talk about that cat waving its ass in my face...

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

Yeah, perspective is important. NE PA is really in a drought and we are having an average to a bit above average season.

All things considered, I would be fine if Passaic, Bergen, Essex and points east fell into the Atlantic.

LOL. Our day will come. Hey if thing gets cranking just a little faster it could be 30 miles closer to the coast. Giving us the big snow and them rain. :thumbsup: ( well we can hope)

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
Posted

ABE 1.00-1.25 on the EURO...Hazleton 0.50 :axe:

Disgusting.

I just felt like the LV and Schuylkill Cnty hit a long one going out of the park only to hit the foul line pole. This is getting totally ridiculous at this point. NYC posters are livin it up in their thread--partying until its 1999. It seems every frickin run of any model has gone their way in the past two years. They will be whining soon enuf when their basements flood.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

I just felt like the LV and Schuylkill Cnty hit a long one going out of the park only to hit the foul line pole. This is getting totally ridiculous at this point. NYC posters are livin it up in their thread--partying until its 1999. It seems every frickin run of any model has gone their way in the past two years. They will be whining soon enuf when their basements flood.

huge lol

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

I just felt like the LV and Schuylkill Cnty hit a long one going out of the park only to hit the foul line pole. This is getting totally ridiculous at this point. NYC posters are livin it up in their thread--partying until its 1999. It seems every frickin run of any model has gone their way in the past two years. They will be whining soon enuf when their basements flood.

You get 12"+ on the EURO...no reason to complain for you if you ask me.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

I just felt like the LV and Schuylkill Cnty hit a long one going out of the park only to hit the foul line pole. This is getting totally ridiculous at this point. NYC posters are livin it up in their thread--partying until its 1999. It seems every frickin run of any model has gone their way in the past two years. They will be whining soon enuf when their basements flood.

That's a pretty good assessment, but you guys look to do fairly well down there on this one. It's up here where the gradient screws with us. Not much unlike February 2006 when ABE got 15 inches and we got 2 inches. I worked in Fogelsville at the time and you could literally see the snow depth rise as you drove south on 309/100.

Yup, this was expected.

Welcome to winter 2010-2011.

Jim, do your time at WNEP and then move to NYC and get a job there. Of course then it's snow like hell back here and rain there... :P

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

Looking good from Mt Holly. This is a great write up.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WE HAVE COME TO THE TIME FOR WATCH DECISIONS...AND AFTER

CONSIDERABLE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED

THIS MORNING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF

THE UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY...LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND

NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. DETAILS ARE CONTAINED BELOW.

WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY STILL SOME DETAILS THAT NEED TO BE WORKED

OUT FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS NOW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES RUNS TO START PUTTING TOGETHER A

FRAMEWORK. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO START...THE TIMING OF THE

PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED DOWN SOME TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS

THAT SEE THE PRECIPITATION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE

ABOVE FREEZING...SO MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS

POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUT THE

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO WARRANT HITTING THIS TOO HARD.

ELSEWHERE...SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL FADE BY INCREASING

CLOUDINESS. THE CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING

IN THE EVENING...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWS BEING CLOSER TO THE

COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY...

MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED

ON THE 850 MB LOW TRACK...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN

AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WOULD BE

WARMING TO THE POINT WHERE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WOULD BECOME

DIFFICULT.

IN THESE AREAS...A MAINLY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY

WEDNESDAY. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH NEAR KACY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...

HEAVY RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT BE MENTIONED YET AS ONLY

NUISANCE FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED.

FURTHER NORTHWEST...THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ALL

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM LAYER AROUND 6000 FEET...WHICH COULD

RESULT IN SLEET AS WELL. SO...FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE

QPF NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW

AND SLEET. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WOULD LOOK

TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES THROUGH DUSK WEDNESDAY.

THE ABOVE DOES CONTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL

RUNS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARMING.

BECAUSE OF THIS...A BLENDED APPROACH WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES

WEDNESDAY.

THE EVENT STARTS TO BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...

A COUPLE OF THINGS HAPPEN. FIRST...THE COLUMN ITSELF GETS COLDER DUE

TO DYNAMIC COOLING. BASED ON A BLEND APPROACH TO THE COLUMN

TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS SEEING RAIN TO

CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

NORTHERN DELAWARE...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY,

SECOND...THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOWED

BANDED PRECIPITATION FEATURES TO DEVELOP. CLIMATOLOGICALLY

SPEAKING...THE BEST BANDS TEND TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE

LOW...AND THESE BANDS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING

ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME THE COLUMN STARTS TO

COOL...SO A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW COULD OCCUR ABRUPTLY BETWEEN

0000 UTC AND 0300 UTC THURSDAY.

THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHERE THERE BE ENOUGH TIME FOR NORTHERN

DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW

JERSEY TO SNOW TO ACCUMULATE TO WINTER STORM WATCH LEVELS? BASED ON

THE BANDING...QPF WOULD NOT BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. SO...BASED ON

THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM

WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA...GIVEN THE CHANGEOVER TIMING ISSUE.

THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM HERE...AND THESE AREAS REPRESENT THE

MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE WATCH DECISION.

FURTHER NORTHWEST...INCLUDING THE THE UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY...LEHIGH

VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...THE COLUMN

SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALLOW SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH BANDING WILL

MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. WHILE THE BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORT

WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL... THERE IS SOME WIGGLE ROOM HERE WAS WELL.

HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOW SEEM TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A WINTER

STORM WATCH...AND ONE WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY...THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR AS THE

BANDED FEATURES MOVE TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR

AS THOUGH A STRIP FROM MONMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL

DELAWARE WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME AFTER THE CHANGEOVER FOR

ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH 4 INCHES ON AVERAGE. BASED ON THIS...A WATCH

WILL NOT BE RAISED AT THIS TIME FOR THESE AREAS. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS

COME IN COLDER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...CONSIDERATIONS MAY HAVE TO BE

MADE FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND

MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH JERSEY...THE COOLING OCCURS TOO LATE FOR MUCH

IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. IN ALL AREAS...THE STEADIEST

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 1200 UTC THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND WILL BE

AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS GOING.

FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 40

MPH...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUIETER...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE

MORNING.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

so, somebody tell us why not to worry about 6z nam and gfs? I mean, the season trend has been major sharp cutuffs and these runs reinforce that idea (or virtually kill the storm all together). I don't want to hear it is the 6z. People said the same thing that last few big storms.

Snowgoose the MET said that he senses convective feedback issues on the 6z runs, and that most mets will be wary of using them. Feedback would lead to a SE track.

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
Posted

You get 12"+ on the EURO...no reason to complain for you if you ask me.

I will complain because it is my right to complain dam it -----I keep thinking I am in the NYC thread sorry- Just cannot believe we will 12 inches- like the boy who cried wolf too many times. I will wait until th 12z runs to stop my bitchin thanks

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
Posted

I will complain because it is my right to complain dam it -----I keep thinking I am in the NYC thread sorry- Just cannot believe we will 12 inches- like the boy who cried wolf too many times. I will wait until th 12z runs to stop my bitchin thanks

I think NE PA folks have the right to complain with the way this winter has gone, what makes me chuckle are those who have seen over 30"+ of snow already this winter crying over the fact that this storm may not give them 10"+. :huh:

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