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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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Boreal

Boreal

Posted
Posted

Well Jim i know for many years people complained about Mt Holly too :)

Still think one of the best teams was the old NWS ABE folks :D

Mt. Holly is great. I've lived a considerable amount of time in the Boston, Philadelphia, New York, and Pittsburgh forecast areas, and no one exceeds the consistently good, sound, forecasting of Mt. Holly. Quite frankly, though I don't pay much attention to BGM (they have the added dimension of LES forecasting which is a subset of skills and knowledge all its own), the Northeast is blessed with quite a group of high quality NWS forecasting teams. I think the accuracy, timeliness, and diversity of forecast products has grown and improved incredibly since the early 80's. (I would still like to hear a "traveller's advisory" though, just for old time's sake. And isn't it nice to have a website to go to for a forecast that is both free, and free of advertisements?

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eastonwx

eastonwx

Posted
Posted

-5.1F this AM in Martins Creek

just watched Ed Hanna's report; very non-committal on Wednesday storm. Snow, sleet, freezing rain changing over to rain, then back to snow Wednesday evening. Said a 12+ event unlikely, if he had to give an amount, he would say 3-6, 4-8" type amounts. Also said storm is very "fluid", and tweaks and updates will be made.

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RkTec

RkTec

Posted
Posted

I know many on the boards have already indicated the continued cold, but Mt. Holly's long term also sounds great. Here is the last paragraph of their long term in the AFD. :thumbsup:

IF ANYONE IS LOOKING FOR MORE THAN BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE COLD
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN LOCKED IN SINCE DECEMBER STARTED, WELL WE ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO LOOK PRETTY HARD. THE LATEST NAEFS HAD A 90-100
PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE ENSUING WEEK (DAYS 8
TO 14). THE POSITIVE PNA IN ALL LIKELIHOOD TRIGGERED BY THE
CURRENT ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LEGS, MEANING
ANY CHANGE WOULD HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY AT
THE ABSOLUTE EARLIEST. THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS
EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

Was -4 here this morning. On the way to work drove thru areas where there temps were averaging around -12 according to truck readout.

Cur Temp: 13

DP 5

Not expecting much snow from weds/thur storm looks like I'm on the western fringe.

my brother informed is temp on is truck dropped to -14 on the NE extention for a time period early this morning around 6 AM south of I 80

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Since I am only 16 mi SE of RDG I thought I would post my latest Wxsim program forecast off of the 18z runs.in here..this is for NW Chester County but should be even more snow/ice up your way!

Latest Wxsim module/program based off 18z data continues the trend toward more significant snow and ice for the NW Philly burbs - total snow and sleet totals are forecasted to be in the 7" to 9" range...temps do not get above 31 degrees. Here is the breakdown

Light Sleet during the day...little accumulation by eve rush

Heavy IP toward rush hour temp 29.8

Heavy Snow by 830pm continuing through midnight

Total Snow and IP accumulation in the 7 to 9" range

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Boreal

Boreal

Posted
Posted

Since I am only 16 mi SE of RDG I thought I would post my latest Wxsim program forecast off of the 18z runs.in here..this is for NW Chester County but should be even more snow/ice up your way!

Latest Wxsim module/program based off 18z data continues the trend toward more significant snow and ice for the NW Philly burbs - total snow and sleet totals are forecasted to be in the 7" to 9" range...temps do not get above 31 degrees. Here is the breakdown

Light Sleet during the day...little accumulation by eve rush

Heavy IP toward rush hour temp 29.8

Heavy Snow by 830pm continuing through midnight

Total Snow and IP accumulation in the 7 to 9" range

Thanks for posting here.

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Boreal

Boreal

Posted
Posted

NAM is 1" QPF all snow for ABE. Please make it happen! :snowman:

It took a while to get to the overall solution of the other models, but it is odd how the SLP seems to redevelop to the SW. Still, it seems to be increasingly likely that, with this system, many of us may exceed our 3-5" averages of the last few storms.

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_AR_

_AR_

Posted
Posted

well lets divide it up right now---- those who hate NYC posters and those who hate PHL posters. thanks for making this worthwhile suggestion.

Then we need 3 sections (one for those who hate both) :lmao:

Also, as someone mentioned about ice fog, there has been some ice crystals forming on bushes and trees around the small streams in my area too. Cool stuff.

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Storm017

Storm017

Posted
Posted

my brother informed is temp on is truck dropped to -14 on the NE extention for a time period early this morning around 6 AM south of I 80

I was on 80 east early morning in that area were the temps were around -12, so some of the valleys around there could be colder. I'll tell you it is a fun drive thru that area in the winter; don't know what to except. Been doing it for years.

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
Posted

Then we need 3 sections (one for those who hate both) :lmao:

Also, as someone mentioned about ice fog, there has been some ice crystals forming on bushes and trees around the small streams in my area too. Cool stuff.

I am sorry, good suggestion. Lets make the ABE airport, the city of Allentown and Whitehall the third section. Ice fog forms along spring fed streams when the temps fall below zero. The Little Lehigh Creek experience this in below zero weather on clear nights.

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

I hate having to count on a CCB with good dynamics to produce a good heavy snowfall. We're never the ones who win out with those, it's always NJ NENJ/NYC.

3-6" seems like a good call right now.

Fixed. LOL

The NAM hates NW NJ. Again.

Yea, 0z nam is .50 here

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