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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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_AR_

_AR_

Posted
Posted

And for the record I will still be shocked to see anything over 4 inches out of this system Wednesday.

I'm even suspicious of a 4+ storm down here too. It's getting hairy. Don't know what to think with the GGEM moving east too now, although the GFS has been stepping back west.

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted

Unbelievable...bring on Spring. I've had it with this winter.

I-95 wins again and again and again.

You guys will be fine. You may not get as much qpf as I-95, but you'll probably be all snow.

As for my backyard down here in I-95 land, we're looking at temps in the upper 30s tomorrow and Wednesday, then rain, then a change to snow, with less than idea ratios (most likely). So the snow isn't going to accumulate right away. I think we get 1"-3" maybe 2"-4". I think at least 6" is a good bet up your way even with the lower precip amounts.

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
Posted

Looks like us here in ABE could be on the sleet/snow mix line. Here's hoping for 5"+ with this one!

It's our best chance of the season, for sure. I'd say some sleet is possible (even some freezing drizzle) in the early phase of the storm, but once the coastal gets near our latitude and really starts interacting with the upper low, you're looking at some heavy snow. Gut feel is that we see no liquid precip.

I'd really like to see the NAM come around, though. I know it's bunk after about 60 hours, usually, but seeing the NAM, of all models, so out to sea is a little disorienting and disconcerting.

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

It's our best chance of the season, for sure. I'd say some sleet is possible (even some freezing drizzle) in the early phase of the storm, but once the coastal gets near our latitude and really starts interacting with the upper low, you're looking at some heavy snow. Gut feel is that we see no liquid precip.

I'd really like to see the NAM come around, though. I know it's bunk after about 60 hours, usually, but seeing the NAM, of all models, so out to sea is a little disorienting and disconcerting.

Yea, but always think the flip-flopping has been the norm this season so far. I'm not saying we'll be in the jackpot, but we will be in a better, more comfortable spot than say Seaside Heights. I never really bought into liquid precip for our area; mainly snow to mix freez rain/sleet then back to snow again.

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

Not even an HWO update from NWS bing. But yet again State College and Mt Holly have already updated theirs. What is going on at bing? They are always the last to issue warnings/advisories/sps/hwos....gets a little frustrating. Maybe again, its because I was spoiled with the Mt Holly folks for so many years...

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

MT Holly. updated their forecast - only forecasting rain for 1 hour?

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely between 1pm and 2pm, then snow likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Northeast wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

We saw several diesel trucks stalled out on I-81 and the Cross Valley Expressway this morning on our way to a fire scene in Larksville. And for the record I will still be shocked to see anything over 4 inches out of this system Wednesday.

I never got a block away from our garage/shop. The fuel gelled as soon as I started driving...spitting, sputtering, and stalling several times, and I had to limp and coax the thing back to get it parked.

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

Tom Clark not impressed....says we will be on northern fringe of precip shield.

Folks in my area, forget about this one. It's over. Enjoy the flurries with the sun peeking through.

I am not buying Mt Holly's snow map either. They have busted high in their NW areas on the last few storms on their early call maps.

*SIGH*

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RkTec

RkTec

Posted
Posted

I am not buying Mt Holly's snow map either. They have busted high in their NW areas on the last few storms on their early call maps.

*SIGH*

Snippet from their updated discussion: :arrowhead:

"THE SNOWMAP MAY BE 3 INCHES ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT

SHOULD MORE OR LESS DEPICT WHERE THE CONCERNS FOR WINTRY WX ARE

GREATEST."

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

Tom Clark not impressed....says we will be on northern fringe of precip shield.

Folks in my area, forget about this one. It's over. Enjoy the flurries with the sun peeking through.

I am not buying Mt Holly's snow map either. They have busted high in their NW areas on the last few storms on their early call maps.

*SIGH*

Jim, where exactly is Pittston?

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

It is just north of the WIlkes-Barre proper.

Big Jim, I agree with you on the KBGM comment. it seems that we are an after thought when warnings are issues.

Try reading the AFDs from Mt Holly for YEARS then switching to the afds for luzerne county....

I miss my dream team down in South Jersey.

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Rick G

Rick G

Posted
Posted

Try reading the AFDs from Mt Holly for YEARS then switching to the afds for luzerne county....

I miss my dream team down in South Jersey.

I looked earlier. I don't want to bash the NWS, but it bugs me when BGM dropped it's wind chill advisiory right at 6:am, even though it was well below zero. IT also seems that they kill advisories or warnings a little too

quck.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

I hate having to count on a CCB with good dynamics to produce a good heavy snowfall. We're never the ones who win out with those, it's always NJ/NYC.

3-6" seems like a good call right now.

You must not remember Jan 96 then. A good chunk of that 26 inches fell after midnight in an awesome CCB. When I woke up just before sunrise, I could not see the house across the street from me.

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

You must not remember Jan 96 then. A good chunk of that 26 inches fell after midnight in an awesome CCB. When I woke up just before sunrise, I could not see the house across the street from me.

Sorry to drag this slightly O/T but can you remember forecasts as they got closer to that event? I had heard that even here they were only forecasting like 3-6" within 24 hours and we wound up with 21".

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

Sorry to drag this slightly O/T but can you remember forecasts as they got closer to that event? I had heard that even here they were only forecasting like 3-6" within 24 hours and we wound up with 21".

My memory is getting a bit vague, but I do remember forecast amounts increasing even as the snow started flying. A few days prior, if I remember correctly, most thought it would be OTS or a minor 1-3, 2-4 type of event.

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WeatherGuide

WeatherGuide

Posted
Posted

Well Jim i know for many years people complained about Mt Holly too :)

Still think one of the best teams was the old NWS ABE folks :D

Does anybody remember the name of the guy who used to do the NWS discussions on NWR Philly? .. he always started it with "Onnnn the weather map.." Guy had a voice and diction MADE for radio.

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