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Jan 20-22 Mid-Atlantic OBS thread


Ellinwood

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Some areas got screwed with this one... point is there's too many jumpers pre-event. The band developed just after midnight (about on time), and unfortunately it was a little too warm to the south/east.

This is at least the third time this season that I've seen cries of despair before the actual snowfall is SUPPOSED to occur. A little patience (i.e. wait for it to develop and move through) before jumping) would be appreciated.

Also, why the lowering in confidence? Confidence should be judged by the uncertainties of each individual system. There was a reasonable chance of a screwjob in VA, and it happened. On to the next one.

You're right about that. In the back of my mind, as I watched that precip band to my west take on the appearance of a cold front, I knew. It's no biggie. I had made out pretty good, all things considered with the last couple of events. One thing I am learning is that it doesn't take much to put the Shenandoah Valley in a dry pattern. But, like you said, on to the next one. This time, I'm going with hope for precip. Type, I'll worry about that later.

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I'm in Frederick Co also..... didn't see a flake last night, although right now in Middletown we're getting a few flurries. I literally watched the radar returns evaporate as they moved in from the west last night. It's an all to common occurrence here.

It's been so dry in so. Fred Co since last Feb that I'll gladly take a rainstorm next week, just give us some precip for once.

You're right about that. In the back of my mind, as I watched that precip band to my west take on the appearance of a cold front, I knew. It's no biggie. I had made out pretty good, all things considered with the last couple of events. One thing I am learning is that it doesn't take much to put the Shenandoah Valley in a dry pattern. But, like you said, on to the next one. This time, I'm going with hope for precip. Type, I'll worry about that later.

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