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Jan 20-22 Mid-Atlantic OBS thread


Ellinwood

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Anyone see the radar... you've got to check out the snow hole in full effect:

LWX_0.png

part of it is real here but you see that usually with lighter snow as the beam picks it up at the edges first. if you look at dover you can see it's snowing almost to d.c. above the surface. radar shows *some* signs of wanting to fill east of the apps a bit.

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you guys went all ji up in here

DC has been completely out of the game for a while now, some of us up here north of Baltimore still had a slim shot at 2" and at least respectability. That seems to be slipping away pretty fast. I punted on a big storm from this from the get go, but I had held out hope for a 1-3" event up here along the PA border. That looks more like perhaps an 1" if lucky right now.

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Well I am resigned to rain showers. It's about 37-38 degrees. The south wind has destroyed our chances for cooling until well after the rain showers have passed. It'll cool down all right - but not until AFTER ALL THE PRECIP HAS PASSED US BY.

We need rain anyway - we're in a drought. I'd have been dancing in the streets over a coating.

This winter sucks. Even a reshuffle won't work.

Too bad it's not late Feb already. I am so sick at heart, so sick with disappointment over wishing for coatings and half inchings and getting nothing, or getting rain.

This place just sucks huge goat balls for getting snow.

We haven't been nickled and dimed to death this season; we've been pennied to death so much it makes me want to PUKE!!!!! I HATE living in northern virginia.

NWS just changed the weather symbol to raindrops for tonight's overnight forecast. Check and Mate.

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DC has been completely out of the game for a while now, some of us up here north of Baltimore still had a slim shot at 2" and at least respectability. That seems to be slipping away pretty fast. I punted on a big storm from this from the get go, but I had held out hope for a 1-3" event up here along the PA border. That looks more like perhaps an 1" if lucky right now.

these things almost always trend north. you guys were too close to the edge to have any confidence. you could still get 1" without trouble im sure.

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perhaps the front got further south west of Baltimore, but I know when driving from Baltimore to York up 83 today it was still 43 as I crossed the Mason Dixon line.

Max was only 35.6 here in Hagerstown today, so I was surprised to see it was so much warmer just a little south of here. The temp dropped to 31 at 7PM, but is now back up to 33. So far, only a few flurries here and watching radar trends I doubt we get more than a coating. Perhaps up to an 1", but nothing like the up to 4" they were forecasting less than 24 hours ago.

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these things almost always trend north. you guys were too close to the edge to have any confidence. you could still get 1" without trouble im sure.

Oh I had no confidence, but it seems even when I know the result is going to be bad, I still get a little let down. I guess somewhere deep inside I leave a candle lit for that small chance things surprise in a good way.

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Max was only 35.6 here in Hagerstown today, so I was surprised to see it was so much warmer just a little south of here. The temp dropped to 31 at 7PM, but is now back up to 33. So far, only a few flurries here and watching radar trends I doubt we get more than a coating. Perhaps up to an 1", but nothing like the up to 4" they were forecasting less than 24 hours ago.

We dropped to about 32.8 for a bit then steadied off at 33.4 for almost 2 hours now. Agreed the radar looks a bit bleak.

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if you look at greater elevation angles on radar you can see increasing returns to the sw of dc. some similar was showing near loudoun that looks to be making it to the base lvl. it's spotty and may be nothing but there are definitely signs it's about to try to start so it can finish a few minutes later.

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Max was only 35.6 here in Hagerstown today, so I was surprised to see it was so much warmer just a little south of here. The temp dropped to 31 at 7PM, but is now back up to 33. So far, only a few flurries here and watching radar trends I doubt we get more than a coating. Perhaps up to an 1", but nothing like the up to 4" they were forecasting less than 24 hours ago.

Yeah, it was kind of interesting here - temp jumped almost 3 degrees in the last couple of hours. Doubt we see much of anything. Kind of surprised to see the WWA hanging on at this point.

At least we can look forward to the bitter cold and northwest wind for the weekend.

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This is like a summer frontal passage around here. Nice wide band over the western counties diminishing, then dying just before it gets into the valley. Good luck to you guys east of here. In the spring and summer it usually refires once east of the Blue Ridge.

Been 30 degrees for hours. Not a flake.

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LWX doesn't like this at all

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ATTHIS TIME. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSSTHE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ANDCALLS TO SPOTTERS HAVE RESULTED IN A TRACE OF SNOW SO FAR. THESTRONGER RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THECWFA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGHEST SNOWFALLAMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING RIDGES AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXONLINE. ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA EARLIER THIS EVENINGTO REMOVE HOWARD COUNTY...AS MORE OF A RA/SN MIX IS EXPECTED SOUTHOF THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.HOURLY TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTAREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NW AND HIGHLANDS STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER30S. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING COLD FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS ANDSKIES ARE PRETTY WELL BKN/OVC...SO HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE MAXTEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

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Yeah, it was kind of interesting here - temp jumped almost 3 degrees in the last couple of hours. Doubt we see much of anything. Kind of surprised to see the WWA hanging on at this point.

At least we can look forward to the bitter cold and northwest wind for the weekend.

Yeah.. temp is now up to 35.2, nearly the high for the day! I can't complain though as I'm heading to Garrett County for the weekend - no worries about getting shafted there!

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This is just absurd. Probably won't even see a sprinkle. I'd be shocked if next week's storm doesn't slowly go downhill over the next 2 days. We'll probably be sitting around Sunday at 12Z praying we're still in the light green shade. Time to look forward to March thunderstorms I suppose.

edit: This is my one public implosion for the season. Just let me be. :angry:

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This is just absurd. Probably won't even see a sprinkle. I'd be shocked if next week's storm doesn't slowly go downhill over the next 2 days. We'll probably be sitting around Sunday at 12Z praying we're still in the light green shade. Time to look forward to March thunderstorms I suppose.

edit: This is my one public implosion for the season. Just let me be. :angry:

I agree with you. The seasonal trend is undeniable. We will be lucky to get any qpf. The models will trend things down.

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f the weather, really. This is my ji/x jebman/whoever the hell whatever rant. this is the worst winter we've had ever. i am ranting because i want to, f this winter. So i got 92.3'' last winter, who cares. All you guys that say its ok this winter sucks are bs, can't we at least get to average. Please someone, put my warn level to 100 that way if i say something stupid ill be banned, like ji. Thanks so gosh dam much.

Dude. You're 11. You don't know what a bad winter means.

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