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Jan 20-22 Mid-Atlantic OBS thread


Ellinwood

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36 degrees in N VA at 7pm.

This time the precip will reach us.

It'll start out as rain, then transition over to some light snow by the predawn hours.

I'll take my coating of snow, and I will like it.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Look out in Maryland - Again. You're gonna get 5 inches of snow.

The BULK of the snow always finding a way to miss DCA - Sure last winter was epic - But this nonsense this winter - every storm slides by us - IS JUST PLAIN cruel.

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36 degrees in N VA at 7pm.

This time the precip will reach us.

It'll start out as rain, then transition over to some light snow by the predawn hours.

I'll take my coating of snow, and I will like it.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Look out in Maryland - Again. You're gonna get 5 inches of snow.

The BULK of the snow always finding a way to miss DCA - Sure last winter was epic - But this nonsense this winter - every storm slides by us - IS JUST PLAIN cruel.

Maybe in Garret County MD

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I found this on my facebook page - they seem bullish...

Anne Arundel County Breaking News and Events Winter Weather Update Mid-Atlantic 6:10 pm Thursday 1/20/2011 - A weak to moderate winter storm is bisecting the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys having delivered a general swath of 3-6" in locations where Winter Storm Warnings are posted. For those looking for a brief and picturesque snowfall, the 2-4" expected across West ...Virginia, Central / Eastern Maryla...nd, Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey will provide powderounds an excellent kodak moment for some nice facebook avatars. Winter Weather Advisories currently blanket most of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for tonight into tomorrow.

AMOUNTS: Our team's 2-4" call is based on the hypotheses that 1) Long- and medium range scale models may be underestimating liquid available; 2) A surface southeast wind may help "moisten" the air prior to snow arriving east of the Blue Ridge; 3) Short-range models (featured below) show liquid amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" for Maryland, and 0.25" to 0.50" for PA into NJ; 4) The North Atlantic Oscillation, a large scale air mass movement/climate indicator, is continuing to decline toward neutral. This may provide an additional press of cold air whic keeps the storm track from shifting any farther north.

TIMING: We expect snow in the Blue Ridge and southern PA around 9pm - and starting by 11pm in Central MD - after 12am in Eastern MD counties & Delaware. As stated in earlier updates, the heaviest snow should fall in these areas from 1-4 am, tapering to flurries by 7am. By 9am- partial clearing and a stiff northwest wind will replace snow- with some blowing and drifting.

SCHOOLS: Our team advisors "advise" all students to complete their homework as usual, and teachers to have their lesson plans ready. For some, tomorrow is the last day of the 2nd quarter and various Maryland districts have midterm exams scheduled. However-- some school systems have a half-day scheduled due to exams. A 2-hour delay would be problematic if the school is slated to close 3 hours early anyway - so if some schools close tomorrow for what might seem a pittling amount of snow, it may have been more due to a timing issue than actual threat of hazardous road conditions.

(Team collaborators: Forecasters Greg J., Jason M., Connor M., Dakota S., Dr. Winstead, Mr. Foot)

167535_120143421391962_117582048314766_158981_2871626_s.jpg

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I found this on my facebook page - they seem bullish...

Anne Arundel County Breaking News and Events Winter Weather Update Mid-Atlantic 6:10 pm Thursday 1/20/2011 - A weak to moderate winter storm is bisecting the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys having delivered a general swath of 3-6" in locations where Winter Storm Warnings are posted. For those looking for a brief and picturesque snowfall, the 2-4" expected across West ...Virginia, Central / Eastern Maryla...nd, Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey will provide powderounds an excellent kodak moment for some nice facebook avatars. Winter Weather Advisories currently blanket most of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for tonight into tomorrow.

AMOUNTS: Our team's 2-4" call is based on the hypotheses that 1) Long- and medium range scale models may be underestimating liquid available; 2) A surface southeast wind may help "moisten" the air prior to snow arriving east of the Blue Ridge; 3) Short-range models (featured below) show liquid amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" for Maryland, and 0.25" to 0.50" for PA into NJ; 4) The North Atlantic Oscillation, a large scale air mass movement/climate indicator, is continuing to decline toward neutral. This may provide an additional press of cold air whic keeps the storm track from shifting any farther north.

Oh lord it is the guy who calls for a FOOT when it is 50 and sunny outside :arrowhead:

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just when you think it can't get any worse, all the models are still too far south with the slp for tonight

that thing is being sucked north like none of the models had

here's 7PM pressures

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

now, 3 hour pressure tendency

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

its freakin' going NNE!

the radar now looks like a cold front for us

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarse/radarloop.htm

count on 2, maybe 3 hours of falling precip and that's it, the way its looking to me at least

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just when you think it can't get any worse, all the models are still too far south with the slp for tonight

that thing is being sucked north like none of the models had

here's 7PM pressures

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

now, 3 hour pressure tendency

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

its freakin' going NNE!

the radar now looks like a cold front for us

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarse/radarloop.htm

count on 2, maybe 3 hours of falling precip and that's it, the way its looking to me at least

Tom Tasselmyer said at 6 tonight it will probably only last a few hours, he called for 1-2" but he sounded more like 1" for Baltimore.

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I found this on my facebook page - they seem bullish...

Anne Arundel County Breaking News and Events Winter Weather Update Mid-Atlantic 6:10 pm Thursday 1/20/2011 - A weak to moderate winter storm is bisecting the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys having delivered a general swath of 3-6" in locations where Winter Storm Warnings are posted. For those looking for a brief and picturesque snowfall, the 2-4" expected across West ...Virginia, Central / Eastern Maryla...nd, Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey will provide powderounds an excellent kodak moment for some nice facebook avatars. Winter Weather Advisories currently blanket most of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for tonight into tomorrow.

AMOUNTS: Our team's 2-4" call is based on the hypotheses that 1) Long- and medium range scale models may be underestimating liquid available; 2) A surface southeast wind may help "moisten" the air prior to snow arriving east of the Blue Ridge; 3) Short-range models (featured below) show liquid amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" for Maryland, and 0.25" to 0.50" for PA into NJ; 4) The North Atlantic Oscillation, a large scale air mass movement/climate indicator, is continuing to decline toward neutral. This may provide an additional press of cold air whic keeps the storm track from shifting any farther north.

TIMING: We expect snow in the Blue Ridge and southern PA around 9pm - and starting by 11pm in Central MD - after 12am in Eastern MD counties & Delaware. As stated in earlier updates, the heaviest snow should fall in these areas from 1-4 am, tapering to flurries by 7am. By 9am- partial clearing and a stiff northwest wind will replace snow- with some blowing and drifting.

SCHOOLS: Our team advisors "advise" all students to complete their homework as usual, and teachers to have their lesson plans ready. For some, tomorrow is the last day of the 2nd quarter and various Maryland districts have midterm exams scheduled. However-- some school systems have a half-day scheduled due to exams. A 2-hour delay would be problematic if the school is slated to close 3 hours early anyway - so if some schools close tomorrow for what might seem a pittling amount of snow, it may have been more due to a timing issue than actual threat of hazardous road conditions.

(Team collaborators: Forecasters Greg J., Jason M., Connor M., Dakota S., Dr. Winstead, Mr. Foot)

167535_120143421391962_117582048314766_158981_2871626_s.jpg

Thats from Foot's Forecast. I know the guy who runs the breaking news site and he doesn't forecast weather

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Nothing like a superband of rain :arrowhead: .

looking at current obs i doubt there will be rain till you're a good deal south of d.c. and there might not be any precip there anyway. tho i have not looked at soundings and i know wes was talking about a warm layer at some point.

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