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how cold can we expect it to get


uncle W

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The last time NYC saw single digit temperatures in December was 1988...Coldest temp. was 4 in 1962...The average min for the 20 years is just below 16...

1955, 1962, 1970, 1995, 2000 had a long period of well below normal temperatures...1950, 1955, 1988 and 2000 lowest minimum came in December...

The last 20 la nina Decembers lowest minimums...The winters minimum and month it occurred...I'll guess we see a minimum of 15 this December and below 10 for the winter...

year.....min....winter min...

1949.....21......6 in Feb...

1950.......9......9 in Dec...

1954.....16......0 in Feb...

1955.......5......5 in Dec...

1956.....16......0 in Jan...

1962.......4.....-2 in Feb...

1964.....17......9 in Jan...

1967.....20.....-1 in Jan...

1970.....17......4 in Jan...

1971.....20......5 in Jan...

1973.....17......6 in Jan...

1974.....26....15 in Jan...

1975.....16.....-1 in Jan...

1984.....25.....-2 in Jan...

1988.......5......5 in Dec...

1995.....15......5 in Feb...

1998.....17......9 in Jan...

1999.....19......3 in Jan...

2000.....14....14 in Dec...

2007.....20....10 in Feb...

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I added snowfall for these years...Totals include November...

year.....min....winter min...snow.....White Christmas?

1949.....21......6 in Feb........1.6

1950.......9......9 in Dec........3.8"....

1954.....16......0 in Feb........0.1".....

1955.......5......5 in Dec........4.3".....light snow 12/22...trace on the ground Christmas Morning...

1956.....16......0 in Jan........0.9".....

1962.......4.....-2 in Feb........4.5".....snow and rain 12/21 and light snow Christmas day...trace on the ground Christmas morning...

1964.....17......9 in Jan........3.1".....snow on 12/20 but melts before Christmas morning...

1967.....20.....-1 in Jan........8.7".....snow on 12/23 but melts before Christmas morning...

1970.....17......4 in Jan........2.4".....snow/sleet 12/22-23 with 1" on the ground Christmas morning...

1971.....20......5 in Jan.........T.....

1973.....17......6 in Jan........2.8".....

1974.....26....15 in Jan........0.2".....light sleet early Christmas morning...Trace...

1975.....16.....-1 in Jan........2.3".....snow 12/22 with a trace on the ground Christmas morning...Light snow Christmas afternoon...

1984.....25.....-2 in Jan........5.5".....

1988.......5......5 in Dec........0.3".....

1995.....15......5 in Feb......14.4".....2" of snow on the ground from storms earlier in the month...flurries Christmas day...

1998.....17......9 in Jan........2.0".....2" 12/23-24 and 1" left Christmas morning...

1999.....19......3 in Jan.........T.......

2000.....14....14 in Dec......13.4....trace on the ground from light snow a few days before Christmas...

2007.....20....10 in Feb........2.9...

The average snow for the 20 Decembers is 3.7"...below the long term and 30 year averages...

4 of 20 yrs had at least 1" on the ground Christmas Morning...1970, 1975, 1995, 1998...

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  • 1 month later...

We know La nina brings less snow on average but more so for December...The following is a list of nina or near nina years December snowfall and seasonal totals for NYC,,,

year.......Dec......Season...

1949......1.1"........13.8"

1950......3.8"........11.6"

1954......0.1"........11.5"

1955......4.3"........33.5" includes Nov...

1956......0.9"........21.9"

1961......7.7"........18.1"

1962......4.5"........16.3"

1964......3.1"........24.4"

1966......9.1"........51.5"

1967......8.5"........19.5" includes Nov.

1970......2.4"........15.5"

1971........T..........22.9"

1973......2.8"........23.5"

1974......0.2"........13.1"

1975......2.3"........17.3"

1984......5.5"........24.1"

1985......0.9"........13.0"

1988......0.3"..........8.1"

1995....13.8"........75.6" includes Nov.

1998......2.0"........12.7"

1999........T..........16.3"

2000....13.4"........35.0"

2005......9.7"........40.0"

2007......2.9"........11.9"

2008......6.0"........27.6"

1870-

2009......5.4"........28.3"

only five seasons were over the long term average...11 seasons were over 20"...

So far this December NYC has gotten 0.1"...

years when there was...

9" plus...4 of 4 above average...

8" plus...4 of 5 seasons above average...

6" plus...4 of 7 seasons above average...5 of 7 above 20"

less than 6"...1 of 18 was above average...7 of 18 above 20"

3" plus...5 of 12 above average...8 of 12 above 20"

less than 3"...0 of 13 above average... 2 of 13 above 20"

1" plus...6 of 18 above...9 of 18 above 20"

less than 1"...0 of 7...2 of 7 above 20"

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