Guess the 2011 Global Temperature Anomalies

[BethesdaWX]

For what is supposed to be such a stellar cold, AGW trend-bucking year, these seem like pretty tepid predictions.

Who said it would be any of those? Seems like high expectations.

[tacoman25]

GISS:

2008 +0.44°C

2009 +0.58°C

2010 +0.63°C

UAH:

2008 -0.04°C

2009 +0.19°C

2010 +0.41°C

Thanks, Don.

I'll go with +.48C for GISS, and -.03C for UAH.

[tacoman25]

We should probably just go with new baseline since that will probably cause less confusion in the long run (until UAH decides to play games with us and switch it again)

You trying to counterract GISS bias with UAH bias? It's blatantly obvious, dude...and completely unecessary. Makes you sound almost like Ytterbium.

You are better than that.

[BethesdaWX]

You trying to counterract GISS bias with UAH bias? It's blatantly obvious, dude...and completely unecessary. Makes you sound almost like Ytterbium.

You are better than that.

Well he's right, why did UAH change the f**king baseline? 1,000's of researchers use it, its just a waste of time IMO.

The last thing I want to see is UAH become the Anti-GISS...I don't want to see UAH take a beatdown like GISS is.

[skierinvermont]

You trying to counterract GISS bias with UAH bias? It's blatantly obvious, dude...and completely unecessary. Makes you sound almost like Ytterbium.

You are better than that.

They obviously just changed it to make the anomalies look smaller since the new baseline is a tenth higher. Not that it matters.. I'm not saying their data is wrong based on that. It's just annoying because it just complicates things even further. RSS isn't switching and neither do the others because that's what makes the most sense. Now when you go back and read any journal article written pre-2010 you'll have to convert it to the new baseline.

What are they going to do... switch the baseline every 10 years? Then if you read any journal article that uses UAH data you will have to go back and check the conversion for that particular decade to the current decade. We'll have a half dozen different UAH baselines by 2050 if they keep doing this. Hopefully they are done. I don't really care but it's annoying.

[Mallow]

With the new baseline...

UAH: +0.04

GISS: +0.44

[tacoman25]

They obviously just changed it to make the anomalies look smaller since the new baseline is a tenth higher. Not that it matters.. I'm not saying their data is wrong based on that. It's just annoying because it just complicates things even further. RSS isn't switching and neither do the others because that's what makes the most sense. Now when you go back and read any journal article written pre-2010 you'll have to convert it to the new baseline.

What are they going to do... switch the baseline every 10 years? Then if you read any journal article that uses UAH data you will have to go back and check the conversion for that particular decade to the current decade. We'll have a half dozen different UAH baselines by 2050 if they keep doing this. Hopefully they are done. I don't really care but it's annoying.

C'mon now, you sound exactly like those who claim the reason GISS uses the oldest baseline is to make the anomalies appear bigger.

NOAA changes the baseline for U.S. anomalies every ten years (1971-00 is changing to 1981-10), so I don't see how what UAH is doing is any different. But clearly, you are biased against UAH anyway. It's obvious from your comments, and really hurts your credibility as an objective poster.

[skierinvermont]

C'mon now, you sound exactly like those who claim the reason GISS uses the oldest baseline is to make the anomalies appear bigger.

NOAA changes the baseline for U.S. anomalies every ten years (1971-00 is changing to 1981-10), so I don't see how what UAH is doing is any different. But clearly, you are biased against UAH anyway. It's obvious from your comments, and really hurts your credibility as an objective poster.

No I am not biased against UAH. I accept their data as legitimate and it has been used widely in scientific studies to do good research.

I am simply saying the baseline switch is stupid and an inconvenience and obviously done for political reasons. GISS uses the baseline it does because that is the first baseline that was available when they made the index and they haven't changed it for the sake of continuity (it also happens to be approximately equal to a 100 year baseline). What UAH is doing is like if GISS decided to move their baseline back to 1900-1930 to artificially increase their anomalies. All I'm saying is: pick a baseline and stick with it. This is what I have said for years, and it would be inconsistent and hypocritical of me to abandon that principle now. Even a lot of skeptics thought the baseline switch was kind of stupid.

[tacoman25]

No I am not biased against UAH. I accept their data as legitimate and it has been used widely in scientific studies to do good research.

I am simply saying the baseline switch is stupid and an inconvenience and obviously done for political reasons. GISS uses the baseline it does because that is the first baseline that was available when they made the index and they haven't changed it for the sake of continuity (it also happens to be approximately equal to a 100 year baseline). What UAH is doing is like if GISS decided to move their baseline back to 1900-1930 to artificially increase their anomalies. All I'm saying is: pick a baseline and stick with it. Even a lot of skeptics thought the baseline switch was kind of stupid.

Your opinions and assumptions here show that you are biased. You don't know that the baseline update was done for political reasons, and for you to assume that UAH is guilty of that and comparing it to as if GISS moved back their baseline (which would obviously be a lot different) is not a balanced viewpoint.

How is it different than the NOAA moving the U.S. anomaly baseline forward?

[skierinvermont]

Your opinions and assumptions here show that you are biased. You don't know that the baseline update was done for political reasons, and for you to assume that UAH is guilty of that and comparing it to as if GISS moved back their baseline (which would obviously be a lot different) is not a balanced viewpoint.

How is it different than the NOAA moving the U.S. anomaly baseline forward?

I responded to you in the other 2011 temp thread so as to not derail this one which is solely for guessing/verification of 2011 temps.

[skierinvermont]

So far

UAH:

0.00 vs -.3

-.01 vs -.25

-.10 vs -.07

GISS:

.46 vs .17

.44 vs .26

Shaping up to be a lot warmer than 2008 so far which ended at -.04 and .44 for UAH GISS respectively. I'd pretty much stick with my .03 and .48.

[donsutherland1]

2011 Global Temperature Anomalies through October:

GISS: +0.517°C

UAH: +0.159°C

Data Sources:

GISS: http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C

UAH: http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt (The annual anomaly will be the average of the January-December monthly figures for "globe")

[donsutherland1]

2011 Global Temperature Anomalies through November:

GISS: +0.521°C

UAH: +0.155°C

Data Sources:

GISS: http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C

UAH: http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt (The annual anomaly will be the average of the January-December monthly figures for "globe")

The Guesses:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.46°C

Don Sutherland: +0.52°C

LakeEffectKing: +0.32°C

Mallow: +0.44°C

NZucker: +0.38°C

Skierinvermont: +0.48°C

Sunny and Warm: +0.45°C

Tacoman25: +0.48°C

WeatherRusty: +0.48°C

Mean Guess: +0.45°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: -0.01°C

Don Sutherland: +0.10°C

LakeEffectKing: -.05°C

Mallow: +0.04°C

NZucker: -0.10°C

Skierinvermont: +0.03°C

Sunny and Warm: +0.06°C

Tacoman25: -0.03°C

WeatherRusty: +0.21°C

Mean Guess: +0.03°C

[LakeEffectKing]

2011 Global Temperature Anomalies through November:

GISS: +0.521°C

UAH: +0.155°C

Data Sources:

GISS: http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C

UAH: http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt (The annual anomaly will be the average of the January-December monthly figures for "globe")

The Guesses:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.46°C

Don Sutherland: +0.52°C

LakeEffectKing: +0.32°C

Mallow: +0.44°C

NZucker: +0.38°C

Skierinvermont: +0.48°C

Sunny and Warm: +0.45°C

Tacoman25: +0.48°C

WeatherRusty: +0.48°C

Mean Guess: +0.45°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: -0.01°C

Don Sutherland: +0.10°C

LakeEffectKing: -.05°C

Mallow: +0.04°C

NZucker: -0.10°C

Skierinvermont: +0.03°C

Sunny and Warm: +0.06°C

Tacoman25: -0.03°C

WeatherRusty: +0.21°C

Mean Guess: +0.03°C

Cheater!!

Very nice call.

[donsutherland1]

Cheater!!

Very nice call.

Lucky guesses, LEK. 2012 could be interesting, especially as the ENSO situation could be less clear-cut than this year (at least to me).

[BethesdaWX]

UAH is likely to be adjusted down post-2008 sometime soon due to spurious warming resulting from a deteriorating radiometer, so the current value for UAH is unlikely to stand.

[donsutherland1]

UAH is likely to be adjusted down post-2008 sometime soon due to spurious warming resulting from a deteriorating radiometer, so the current value for UAH is unlikely to stand.

Guesses were for the UAH as it is currently constructed. The 2011 data will probably be in before the figures are somewhat revised. As with the last adjustment, one cannot rule out both positive and negative adjustments, especially if the review is broader than dealing with an aging radiometer. It will be interesting to see how the revised UAH figures compare to the ones currently available.

[BethesdaWX]

Guesses were for the UAH as it is currently constructed. The 2011 data will probably be in before the figures are somewhat revised. As with the last adjustment, one cannot rule out both positive and negative adjustments, especially if the review is broader than dealing with an aging radiometer. It will be interesting to see how the revised UAH figures compare to the ones currently available.

NASA released a statement stating the trend is to be adjusted down post-2008 to correct spurious warming. I based my prediction mostly off ENSO strength and I don't want to be judged on a dataset that is too warm until corrected.

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.01Dec2011

[donsutherland1]

The December UAH figure is now in. The annual UAH anomaly was +0.15°C.

Guesses ranked by error (smallest to largest) are below:

Don Sutherland: Guess: +0.10°C; Error: 0.05°C

WeatherRusty: Guess: +0.21°C; Error: 0.06°C

Sunny and Warm: Guess: +0.06°C; Error: 0.09°C

Mallow: Guess: +0.04°C; Error: 0.11°C

Skierinvermont: Guess: +0.03°C; Error: 0.12°C

BethesdaWX: Guess: -0.01°C; Error: 0.16°C

Tacoman25: Guess: -0.03°C; Error: 0.18°C

Lake Effect King: Guess: -0.05°C; Error: 0.20°C

NZucker: Guess: -0.10°C; Error: 0.25°C

Mean Guess: +0.03°C; Error: 0.12°C

[BethesdaWX]

Damn, congrats DonS.

[donsutherland1]

The December GISS figure is now in. The annual GISS anomaly was +0.52°C.

Guesses ranked by error (smallest to largest) are below, and in cases of ties, names are listed alphabetically:

Don Sutherland: Guess: +0.52°C; Error: None

Skierinvermont: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

Tacoman25: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

WeatherRusty: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

BethesdaWX: Guess: +0.46°C; Error: 0.06°C

Sunny and Warm: Guess: +0.45°C; Error: 0.07°C

Mallow: Guess: +0.44°C; Error: 0.08°C

NZucker: Guess: +0.38°C; Error: 0.14°C

Lake Effect King: Guess: +0.32°C; Error: 0.20°C

Mean Guess: +0.45°C; Error: 0.07°C

[PhillipS]

The December GISS figure is now in. The annual GISS anomaly was +0.52°C.

Guesses ranked by error (smallest to largest) are below, and in cases of ties, names are listed alphabetically:

Don Sutherland: Guess: +0.52°C; Error: None

Skierinvermont: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

Tacoman25: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

WeatherRusty: Guess: +0.48°C; Error: 0.04°C

BethesdaWX: Guess: +0.46°C; Error: 0.06°C

Sunny and Warm: Guess: +0.45°C; Error: 0.07°C

Mallow: Guess: +0.44°C; Error: 0.08°C

NZucker: Guess: +0.38°C; Error: 0.14°C

Lake Effect King: Guess: +0.32°C; Error: 0.20°C

Mean Guess: +0.45°C; Error: 0.07°C

Wow, Don - you were closest on both UAH and GISS - congrats!

[WeatherRusty]

Combined second place

[donsutherland1]

Combined Standardized Scores (GISS and UAH are weighted equally) in standard deviations from the mean error:

Don Sutherland: -1.253

WeatherRusty: -0.849

Skierinvermont: -0.400

Sunny and Warm: -0.377

Mallow: -0.145

Tacoman25: +0.048

BethesdaWX: +0.064

NZucker: +1.396

Lake Effect King: +1.517

[LakeEffectKing]

Combined Standardized Scores (GISS and UAH are weighted equally) in standard deviations from the mean error:

Don Sutherland: -1.253

WeatherRusty: -0.849

Skierinvermont: -0.400

Sunny and Warm: -0.377

Mallow: -0.145

Tacoman25: +0.048

BethesdaWX: +0.064

NZucker: +1.396

Lake Effect King: +1.517

[donsutherland1]

No insult of any kind was intended. I merely wanted to quantify the point WeatherRusty made.

[LakeEffectKing]

No insult of any kind was intended. I merely wanted to quantify the point WeatherRusty made.

Lol Don! It's all good! My guesses at the global temps are all in good fun! If I put the effort into it I'm sure I'd get all the way up to second place.

[WeatherRusty]

Lol Don! It's all good! My guesses at the global temps are all in good fun! If I put the effort into it I'm sure I'd get all the way up to second place.

Sounds like a threat to me!

Oh, and LEK....Thanks for responding to my posts and moving the discussions in interesting directions....and Happy New Year.

[donsutherland1]

Lol Don! It's all good! My guesses at the global temps are all in good fun! If I put the effort into it I'm sure I'd get all the way up to second place.

Thanks LEK. Sometimes it's difficult to know how the intent of a posted message might come across on a messageboard.

Have a great weekend.

[LakeEffectKing]

Sounds like a threat to me!

Oh, and LEK....Thanks for responding to my posts and moving the discussions in interesting directions....and Happy New Year.

Likewise, my sparring partner!