donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Guess the GISS and UAH global temperature anomalies for 2011: GISS: http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C New GISS Table: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/_tabledata3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt UAH: http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt (The annual anomaly will be the average of the January-December monthly figures for "globe") This thread is for guesses and verifications, not discussion of climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 My guesses: GISS: +0.52°C UAH: +0.10°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GISS: .38C UAH: -.10C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GISS: 0.48C UAH : 0.21C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GISS: +0.45C UAH: +0.06C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UAH: .09C EDIT: .03C (I had baseline confusion) GISS: .48C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Could someone post the numbers for 2008, 2009, and 2010? I used to have them, but not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Could someone post the numbers for 2008, 2009, and 2010? I used to have them, but not anymore. GISS: 2008 +0.44°C 2009 +0.58°C 2010 +0.63°C UAH: 2008 -0.04°C 2009 +0.19°C 2010 +0.41°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GISS: +0.46C UAH: +0.09C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Interesting that everybody is guessing warmer than 2008 even though this Nina was stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Interesting that everybody is guessing warmer than 2008 even though this Nina was stronger Its not stronger. I have it a bit warmer on UAH due to the warmer AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its not stronger. I have it a bit warmer on UAH due to the warmer AMO. It is a little stronger...2008 peaked at -1.4C whereas we have already surpassed the -1.5C strong threshold this time around. I agree with you, however, that the Atlantic Ocean is still pretty warm due to the AMO/NAO pattern we've seen, and that should drive the global temperature anomaly up a bit. On the other hand, the Pacific is brutally cold and the Indian Ocean has lost a ton of heat lately, so that should drive global temperatures down somewhat. I admit to a bit of hedging since everyone's guess was higher than mine. I can easily see UAH come in negative this year, and my preliminary guess was -.1C. The fact that December 2010 still came in at .18C made me go a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I admit to a bit of hedging since everyone's guess was higher than mine. I can easily see UAH come in negative this year, and my preliminary guess was -.1C. The fact that December 2010 still came in at .18C made me go a little higher. Yeah I seem to remember you saying something along the lines of -.1C so I was surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah I seem to remember you saying something along the lines of -.1C so I was surprised I am thinking about changing my guess, don't know if that's still OK. I just glanced at SST maps and we're seeing widespread cooling around Patagonia, from the Indian Ocean into Indonesia/Australia, and just south of the ENSO regions. The cold pool in the Central Atlantic has also been expanding quite dramatically. It's really impressive how cold the oceans have become, we're going to see an incredible drop in global temperatures that will probably challenge IPCC to revise their modeling estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is a little stronger...2008 peaked at -1.4C whereas we have already surpassed the -1.5C strong threshold this time around. I agree with you, however, that the Atlantic Ocean is still pretty warm due to the AMO/NAO pattern we've seen, and that should drive the global temperature anomaly up a bit. On the other hand, the Pacific is brutally cold and the Indian Ocean has lost a ton of heat lately, so that should drive global temperatures down somewhat. I admit to a bit of hedging since everyone's guess was higher than mine. I can easily see UAH come in negative this year, and my preliminary guess was -.1C. The fact that December 2010 still came in at .18C made me go a little higher. Oh Wait... are we going by the New UAH base or the Old UAH base? I've decided to disregard the new base change & just add +0.1C to the final reading to get the old base. I'm not happy with how UAH adjusted the base, in fact, I'm quite peeved over it. All measuring models/Satellites should use the same Base IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh Wait... are we going by the New UAH base or the Old UAH base? I've decided to disregard the new base change & just add +0.1C to the final reading to get the old base. I'm not happy with how UAH adjusted the base, in fact, I'm quite peeved over it. Yes, we need to decide if we are using the 1979-2000 baseline or the new baseline. How are we going to settle this? I was thinking of the old baseline when I made my guess of zero anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I completely forgot about that... were the numbers Don posted old or new baseline? See this is what I keep telling you guys.. you DON"T change your baseline. It is confusing enough just for us.. nevermind if you have 10s of thousands of journal articles all using dozens of different incompatible baselines. This is why GISS uses its 1951-1980 baseline still. EDIT: I figured it out, they are new baseline ... I was thinking old baseline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I completely forgot about that... were the numbers Don posted old or new baseline? See this is what I keep telling you guys.. you DON"T change your baseline. It is confusing enough just for us.. nevermind if you have 10s of thousands of journal articles all using dozens of different incompatible baselines. This is why GISS uses its 1951-1980 baseline still. EDIT: I figured it out, they are new baseline ... I was thinking old baseline I think we should use the new baseline. If that is the case, I'm going to edit to -.07C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes, we need to decide if we are using the 1979-2000 baseline or the new baseline. How are we going to settle this? I was thinking of the old baseline when I made my guess of zero anomaly. We should probably just go with new baseline since that will probably cause less confusion in the long run (until UAH decides to play games with us and switch it again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think we should use the new baseline. If that is the case, I'm going to edit to -.07C. That's .13C higher than your first guess on the old baseline and .03C higher than your new guess on the old baseline just an hour ago.. why the sudden shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh Shoot, I was thinking old baseline the whole time. I guess if we're using the new base... My guess is -0.01C (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did you change your guess nzucker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's .13C higher than your first guess on the old baseline and .03C higher than your new guess on the old baseline.. why the sudden shift? Just throwing out some numbers...didn't originally realize that GISS came in negative for 2008, but I do want to go a little warmer given the massive area of above average SSTs in the North Atlantic. That doesn't seem to be eroding given the continued -NAO pattern. I'm not really sure what to expect, I think we're cooling massively but not sure if we'll get a lag since last month still came in at .18C. Have we agreed on the new baseline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did you change your guess nzucker? Yeah I am going to go with -.1C on the new baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just throwing out some numbers...didn't originally realize that GISS came in negative for 2008, but I do want to go a little warmer given the massive area of above average SSTs in the North Atlantic. That doesn't seem to be eroding given the continued -NAO pattern. I'm not really sure what to expect, I think we're cooling massively but not sure if we'll get a lag since last month still came in at .18C. Have we agreed on the new baseline? I think so... for the contest at least... in reality, I just add +0.1C to get the global temp anomaly. Yes the reason I'm warm is due to the Crazy +AMO... otherwise I'd probably be estimating -.15C if it were Neutral right now. It takes the atmosphere time to react when the oceans change, but we're beginning to see it now in the form of global synoptic changes. Thats a good sign if you want cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm personally a fan of either the 1961-1990 base, or the 1971-2000 base. We get -PDO/-AMO in the 1970's, the +PDO/-AMO in the 80's, & the +PDO/Neutral overall AMO in the 1990's. 1961-1990 is a good one too I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UAH: .09C GISS: .48C EDIT UAH to .03C .. I was looking at multiple sources of both baselines when I made that guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Scoring will be based on the data in the links to the GISS and UAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GISS: +.32 UAH: -.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For what is supposed to be such a stellar cold, AGW trend-bucking year, these seem like pretty tepid predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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