Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Since MPM is in Jamaica, I will play his role again... currently on page 5 of this thread, when I get up, hopefully we are on page 15 or so. C'mon Goofus! Change your settings to the maximum posts per page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is my range here in central CT? Would love to know how abd the commute is looking? Low end? High end? Thanks. Play the game, read along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A bit off topic, but that storm popping off the SE Coast at 72 hours continues to look more and more impressive...thats a huge plus for next week's event, that could very well prevent the high from being able to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just got a look at the soundings for me. Looks like 0.35" with surface temps in the upper 20's, 850's ~-7C, and 700mb at -10 to -12C. Good fluff there. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt Looks like when the good stuff gets in the 700mb temps are near -12C and -18C as it departs...so that interval is when the good stuff falls. That is about as good as it gets for snow growth, so hopefully the NAM is correct with the mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Change your settings to the maximum posts per page. ... black ops funnyman! Off to read Thunderstruck, same author as Isaac's Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like when the good stuff gets in the 700mb temps are near -12C and -18C as it departs...so that interval is when the good stuff falls. That is about as good as it gets for snow growth, so hopefully the NAM is correct with the mid-level temps. Yeah, verbatim, what do you think that is, 15:1, 18:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A bit off topic, but that storm popping off the SE Coast at 72 hours continues to look more and more impressive...thats a huge plus for next week's event, that could very well prevent the high from being able to exit. Flurries in jacksonville? probably not but man that is some cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes, And anything over that would be a bonus, I could use a few inches to lube up the Hyfax's..... Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is my range here in central CT? Would love to know how abd the commute is looking? Low end? High end? Thanks. I, of course, am not a met. But I can say with reasonable confidence that snow will fall in central CT which will eff up any commute there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, verbatim, what do you think that is, 15:1, 18:1? 6-7" for you? Nice. Just use a leaf blower to do your driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm is looking more and more like a 'general' snowfall for a lot of NE rather then jackpots and leaving most high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is my range here in central CT? Would love to know how abd the commute is looking? Low end? High end? Thanks. Hi Dave 5 , sit and read, tomorrow you will get an answer, the commute will suck that is a given, they always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, verbatim, what do you think that is, 15:1, 18:1? Yeah probably like 18 to 1....its always difficult to predict ratios that good until maybe the last second, but its a good sign that its showing up right now. We'd have to look at BUFKIT to be sure, but the mid-level column between 600-800mb looks very good so it probably wouldn't need to be an exact bullseye like in some other events.Its a generally good airmass for snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Brrr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah probably like 18 to 1....its always difficult to predict ratios that good until maybe the last second, but its a good sign that its showing up right now. We'd have to look at BUFKIT to be sure, but the mid-level column between 600-800mb looks very good so it probably wouldn't need to be an exact bullseye like in some other events.Its a generally good airmass for snow growth. Thanks. Time for some sleep. No use staying up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hi Dave 5 , sit and read, tomorrow you will get an answer, the commute will suck that is a given, they always do. Good advice. Even with a modest snowfall, I'm thinking the roads will be pretty bad on Friday morning. I think the cold air means business and I have a feeling the snow will get ahead of the road/highway crews on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks. Time for some sleep. No use staying up at this point. Goodnight Grandpa Bobarino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i think it was the 12z euro...but at h5 on thurs i think it showed slight ridging, to be followed by rapid height falls at h5 heading into friday...if that's the case i expected to see something bigger going on the surface...i guess it's a wait and see type game to figure out whether the euro was onto something at the upper levels and perhaps that will translate into a bigger hit at the surace in future runs...or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good advice. Even with a modest snowfall, I'm thinking the roads will be pretty bad on Friday morning. I think the cold air means business and I have a feeling the snow will get ahead of the road/highway crews on this one. Nah fluff snow, they will have little problems, now about them arseholes on the road. Hey set a record on the way to work yesterday, seven cars in the ditches, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really want to see this thing close off at 700mb. Otherwise, precip will be scooting out of the region very quickly, along with greater limitations on omega. That's been the big battle this whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I, of course, am not a met. But I can say with reasonable confidence that snow will fall in central CT which will eff up any commute there. Plus close schools............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Another one that's going to nail us ye of little faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday.... With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew.... Got it...was just saying I thought the twists and turns of the posts were great to read...Off topic I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nah fluff snow, they will have little problems, now about them arseholes on the road. Hey set a record on the way to work yesterday, seven cars in the ditches, cool. State roads, you're probably right. Local roads, they'll continue to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday.... This is much better then the roller coaster at 6 flags....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i think it was the 12z euro...but at h5 on thurs i think it showed slight ridging, to be followed by rapid height falls at h5 heading into friday...if that's the case i expected to see something bigger going on the surface...i guess it's a wait and see type game to figure out whether the euro was onto something at the upper levels and perhaps that will translate into a bigger hit at the surace in future runs...or not Here's a good map I use to gauge changes in the runs (Euro only)....24 hour height change maps....This is the 12Z Euro from today....probably doesn't apply to Friday, but has worked like a charm most of this winter (for the big storms)....I still think you get to 90'' by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew.... Scott, what do you think of that southerly inflow over that cold. Dome, almost OES like for the southern coasts wonder if we get someone enhancenent going from an odd direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 State roads, you're probably right. Local roads, they'll continue to struggle. My town has been great, except for my driveway getting plowed in so much, but I have been hearing at work lots of bitchin about towns really screwing the pooch due to lack of money and key layoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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