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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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Just got a look at the soundings for me.

Looks like 0.35" with surface temps in the upper 20's, 850's ~-7C, and 700mb at -10 to -12C.

Good fluff there.

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt

Looks like when the good stuff gets in the 700mb temps are near -12C and -18C as it departs...so that interval is when the good stuff falls. That is about as good as it gets for snow growth, so hopefully the NAM is correct with the mid-level temps.

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Looks like when the good stuff gets in the 700mb temps are near -12C and -18C as it departs...so that interval is when the good stuff falls. That is about as good as it gets for snow growth, so hopefully the NAM is correct with the mid-level temps.

Yeah, verbatim, what do you think that is, 15:1, 18:1?

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A bit off topic, but that storm popping off the SE Coast at 72 hours continues to look more and more impressive...thats a huge plus for next week's event, that could very well prevent the high from being able to exit.

Flurries in jacksonville? probably not but man that is some cold air

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Yeah, verbatim, what do you think that is, 15:1, 18:1?

Yeah probably like 18 to 1....its always difficult to predict ratios that good until maybe the last second, but its a good sign that its showing up right now.

We'd have to look at BUFKIT to be sure, but the mid-level column between 600-800mb looks very good so it probably wouldn't need to be an exact bullseye like in some other events.Its a generally good airmass for snow growth.

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Yeah probably like 18 to 1....its always difficult to predict ratios that good until maybe the last second, but its a good sign that its showing up right now.

We'd have to look at BUFKIT to be sure, but the mid-level column between 600-800mb looks very good so it probably wouldn't need to be an exact bullseye like in some other events.Its a generally good airmass for snow growth.

Thanks. Time for some sleep. No use staying up at this point.

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Hi Dave 5 , sit and read, tomorrow you will get an answer, the commute will suck that is a given, they always do.

Good advice. Even with a modest snowfall, I'm thinking the roads will be pretty bad on Friday morning. I think the cold air means business and I have a feeling the snow will get ahead of the road/highway crews on this one.

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i think it was the 12z euro...but at h5 on thurs i think it showed slight ridging, to be followed by rapid height falls at h5 heading into friday...if that's the case i expected to see something bigger going on the surface...i guess it's a wait and see type game to figure out whether the euro was onto something at the upper levels and perhaps that will translate into a bigger hit at the surace in future runs...or not

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Good advice. Even with a modest snowfall, I'm thinking the roads will be pretty bad on Friday morning. I think the cold air means business and I have a feeling the snow will get ahead of the road/highway crews on this one.

Nah fluff snow, they will have little problems, now about them arseholes on the road. Hey set a record on the way to work yesterday, seven cars in the ditches, cool.

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Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday....thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday....thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew....

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With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew....

Got it...was just saying I thought the twists and turns of the posts were great to read...Off topic I know...

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Just caught up reading the 6 pages of posts and I have to say it was hilarious...thread starts of with we need some good juju and by post 20 it turns to we are screwed. Then the NAM starts rolling in and everyone is like what SFEFS...I love it! Here's to hope for a good storm on Friday....thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

This is much better then the roller coaster at 6 flags.......

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i think it was the 12z euro...but at h5 on thurs i think it showed slight ridging, to be followed by rapid height falls at h5 heading into friday...if that's the case i expected to see something bigger going on the surface...i guess it's a wait and see type game to figure out whether the euro was onto something at the upper levels and perhaps that will translate into a bigger hit at the surace in future runs...or not

Here's a good map I use to gauge changes in the runs (Euro only)....24 hour height change maps....This is the 12Z Euro from today....probably doesn't apply to Friday, but has worked like a charm most of this winter (for the big storms)....I still think you get to 90'' by the way.

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With a volatile situation the Srefs aren't that useful. If the rest of the suite is wetter we can bet the 3z Srefs follow suit which is of zero help. It's reinforcing what we already knew....

Scott, what do you think of that southerly inflow over that cold. Dome, almost OES like for the southern coasts wonder if we get someone enhancenent going from an odd direction.

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