grinch1989 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yep that ratio and chucking the .60 line will be a mistake on there part. It is borderline and they do nicely back it up, but I'm with kev on this one...pattern recognition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Refresh the screen and it becomes new. Weird...not sure why it does that, but refreshing the screen changes it. At least for me it does. old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is borderline and they do nicely back it up, but I'm with kev on this one...pattern recognition how are models doing with the storm in the OV? under qpf...over ? also directed toward OSUMetstud (or anyone FTM).....is the nam a red flag for less WAA Snows overspreading the area from 3-5am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I dont think western or central ct will have lower ratios, in fact the ratios should be much better than further east, but OKX has done a fantastic job this winter, so no reason to doubt them now. earlier they had us at a 12:1 average with possible some areas at a 15:1 (could be wrong on the 15).....Not sure what changed with that I am just a snownut that follows this forum and just happened to see that they updated a little while ago when looking for a WW...I was expecting a bump in their forecast...They are pretty conservative, and usually wait until last minute when it comes to updating the totals, but usually they elude to that in their discussion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is borderline and they do nicely back it up, but I'm with kev on this one...pattern recognition I don't buy the fact they made the ratios exactly 10:1 (not saying we get 20 but we will do better, this has constantly been a fluff bomb) and dislike the tossing of the 12z NAM. It started the trend back to what we have seen all year, albeit late. It is not alone in the wilderness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is borderline and they do nicely back it up, but I'm with kev on this one...pattern recognition we shall see when the snow totals come in tomorrow. plus nothing changed from this morning,so what was all the excitement about the big nw shift then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I did expect OKX to go with WSW at least for New London country...even possibly Middlesex. But you people are making too big a deal out of it. OKX's forecast has no bearing on what will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is is just me or does the BOX changed disc at 4 pm not mesh with the WSW wrt expected snowfall. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 401 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OFFSHORE MIDWEEK...BUT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. -- End Changed Discussion --Yet the WSW calls for 5-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't buy the fact they made the ratios exactly 10:1 (not saying we get 20 but we will do better, this has constantly been a fluff bomb) and dislike the tossing of the 12z NAM. It started the trend back to what we have seen all year, albeit late. It is not alone in the wilderness. But the OKX totals mesh well with what BOX has along the southern and western edge of their area, and even BOX is only going with widespread 6 inch totals in CT. What's the big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The KBOX map was updated at 3:55pm but shows same totals as before its got to be a mixup cause thats not WSW critera unless we suddely got moved to Virgina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ They did post a new image, not sure why it's showing up that way. old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I did expect OKX to go with WSW at least for New London country...even possibly Middlesex. But you people are making too big a deal out of it. Just because OKX isn't calling for warning criteria doesn't mean it won't be met. Agree..I think some people care more about what warnings they have, how many people are cramming into Stop and Shop, and school closings more than the actual snow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow BTV actually posted a WWA for this area. yeah i'm at lyndon state and needless to say, we have the fluff factor up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They did post a new one, they must have pulled it down. I have it saved as a image. I'll attach it instead. The KBOX map was updated at 3:55pm but shows same totals as before its got to be a mixup cause thats not WSW critera unless we suddely got moved to Virgina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can we get some final calls on here from the the heavy hitters..Ryan, Will, Scoot, Phil etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i guess patience with the box snowfall map i hope there is no sign change to the WAA snows late nite...(ala 18z nam 18hr panel) ...ahead of the low tonite....i think that's been modeled for a couple days now. i demand WAA snows starting at latest by 300 am or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I did expect OKX to go with WSW at least for New London country...even possibly Middlesex. But you people are making too big a deal out of it. OKX's forecast has no bearing on what will actually happen. Sure who cares in the end but it is interesting to me. I just wonder why they say 10:1 if there is a reason beyond being conservative. But the OKX totals mesh well with what BOX has along the southern and western edge of their area, and even BOX is only going with widespread 6 inch totals in CT. What's the big deal? Who said it was a big deal? It's a discussion thread about a storm. Yeah. Gotta do something until 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They did post a new one, they must have pulled it down. I have it saved as a image. I'll attach it instead. Yes sir they did update now, thanks for the good news. its easy being green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can we get some final calls on here from the the heavy hitters..Ryan, Will, Scoot, Phil etc.. You know how they hate doing that. Good job asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow looks most impressive back in arkansas tenn and ky .....less so in indiana ....ohio...pa. FWIW (nothing lol?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Sure who cares in the end but it is interesting to me. I just wonder why they say 10:1 if there is a reason beyond being conservative. Who said it was a big deal? It's a discussion thread about a storm. Yeah. Gotta do something until 4:30. What's happening at 4:30? I think one of the big factors weighing on OKX is the speed of the system. Seems like they're banking on it being an 8 hour storm, and unless it's snowing moderate to heavily at an inch per hour the entire time, it'll be tough breaking 6 inches in a wide enough area to warrant the warning. Remember, even if some areas get 6 or 7 or 8 inches, as long as most of the forecast zone stays under warning criteria it's still a valid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well done saving that image dan. i'll take the JPot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Sure who cares in the end but it is interesting to me. I just wonder why they say 10:1 if there is a reason beyond being conservative. Who said it was a big deal? It's a discussion thread about a storm. Yeah. Gotta do something until 4:30. lol.. I know really just asking some questions..anyone work for upton or something? anyway its just strange that some where saying that now that it looks closer and better for us that we could have 4-8 with lollies of 10 and then ...nothhing same amount as yesterday..any answers would be nice to the reason why would be greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can we get some last calls on here from the the heavy drinkers..Ryan, Will, Scoot, Phil etc.. Guinness please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What's happening at 4:30? I think one of the big factors weighing on OKX is the speed of the system. Seems like they're banking on it being an 8 hour storm, and unless it's snowing moderate to heavily at an inch per hour the entire time, it'll be tough breaking 6 inches in a wide enough area to warrant the warning. Remember, even if some areas get 6 or 7 or 8 inches, as long as most of the forecast zone stays under warning criteria it's still a valid forecast. 18z GFS. As said, I want to know about the ratios, not in an accusatory manner...just to hear the explanation/learn. The fluffy snow we keep seeing depicted is what will get us all nice totals, and if that 12z NAM was right, the precip will be more, too. 4-8 seems totally reasonable to me, 3-5 is kinda low. But that's me and many of the others here. And obviously not them. Which is fine. It's all good and fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 always like anything out of the norman ok storm prediction center (even if its' for ohio) http://www.spc.ncep..../md/md0039.html funny how the area they were talking about for heavy bands developing........crapped out on radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What's happening at 4:30? I think one of the big factors weighing on OKX is the speed of the system. Seems like they're banking on it being an 8 hour storm, and unless it's snowing moderate to heavily at an inch per hour the entire time, it'll be tough breaking 6 inches in a wide enough area to warrant the warning. Remember, even if some areas get 6 or 7 or 8 inches, as long as most of the forecast zone stays under warning criteria it's still a valid forecast. ok..theres an answer thanks same as yesterday. The forcast was 1-3 tonight and 2-4 in the morning today it is 3-5 with maybe 6 so the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just remember...St Louis 12 inches out of .61 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4"-8" for CT. 7"-11" for N RI, ORH east to KGAY and KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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