rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 upton is keeping conn in a wwa? ! that stinks just read they only expect 3-5 inches in there area. I think they are going to eat crow on that forcast as we have more snow than that,by the time they decide to go warning it will be to late it will be on top of us. 4-8 or 5-10 would seem more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not buying any high amounts near the coast apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's accumulated precip, so that's for the entire storm in CT. gotcha! thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 edit-You are correct-that is updated. I'm shocked, especially for them, would have expected to see 7-8" totals in southern CT They, like BOX, have not updated their forecast yet. Their forecast totals will be up soon ( and WSW) upton is keeping conn in a wwa? ! that stinks just read they only expect 3-5 inches in there area. I think they are going to eat crow on that forcast as we have more snow than that,by the time they decide to go warning it will be to late it will be on top of us. 4-8 or 5-10 would seem more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OKX kept with 3-5" regionwide. That's gonna look ridiculous with ALB and BOX with warnings to the west and north and east and them with a 3-5 adv.. LOL.. They'll def upgrade with the evening disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think this will increase later tonight. Maybe the 9's slid back to the west somewhat. Looking at Bufkit, ratios are 15:1 to 21:1 throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The QPF loss is a little interesting...there is a fairly strange lack of QPF at 18 hours on the 18z NAM compared to 24 hours on the 12z NAM and the 12z GFS. It develops a stronger low and a stronger CCB...but since of the loss of WAA qpf in the early part of the storm...the NAM looks more in line with the GFS...but in reality it is doing something different. Much weaker with the vorticity in NE PA/SE NY on this run. It's even a little weaker/less organized than the 12z GFS which will be the "trend" or error to watch. Might just be the NAM doing it's 4 a day solution spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 upton already updated They, like BOX, have not updated their forecast yet. Their forecast totals will be up soon ( and WSW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 anyone have a link to where to access the BOX clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They, like BOX, have not updated their forecast yet. Their forecast totals will be up soon ( and WSW) I was just reading it and the time they have posted was 3:46 pm so I figured its new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 upton already updated Yup, their map is old, but won't change much based on the refreshed WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Interesting to see albany issue wsw for nw ct and western mass, okx holds firm with the advisory for southern ct, 3-5 outside chance at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it must be a mistake?! it has the same amount for conn as this morning if not less..im confused? I thought it was getting better for us.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OKX. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 339 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...MODERATE SNOWFALL FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-211000- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.110121T0400Z-110121T1500Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 339 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. A FEW ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * VISIBILITIES...AROUND 1/2 MILE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FRESH SNOW WILL BE ON THE GROUND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Winter storm warning 5-8" from BOX http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hazardsByCounty.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 box just updated to a warning!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 anyone have a link to where to access the BOX clown maps? I've never heard BOX maps referred to as clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OKX. Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Toss it I suppose I'll wait for the 4PM warning package? Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UPTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 334 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.30 AND 0.50 INCHES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 20/12Z NAM...WHICH IS GIVING THE CWA AN AVERAGE OF 0.60 INCHES. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT A DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE DURING RUSH HOUR. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE A TOTAL AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS THE SNOW ENDS...DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILLS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I suppose I'll wait for the 4PM warning package? Hmm... lol ..if they dont I feel they will bust way low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UPTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 334 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.30 AND 0.50 INCHES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 20/12Z NAM...WHICH IS GIVING THE CWA AN AVERAGE OF 0.60 INCHES. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT A DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE DURING RUSH HOUR. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE A TOTAL AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS THE SNOW ENDS...DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILLS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. The problem with that is they seem to be giving us 10:1 ratios with lower QPF than we expect it will end up as now, too. EDIT: Besides the fact they discount that NAM run which is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OKX looks ridiculous on this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 350 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...A HIGH IMPACT BUT SHORT DURATION SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON... MAZ004>007-012>020-026-RIZ001>007-210500- /O.UPG.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.110121T0500Z-110121T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0006.110121T0700Z-110121T2000Z/ NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA- EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA- SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA- NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA- SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM... LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO... NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON... PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...AYER...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT 350 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS NORTH OF THE CAPE COD CANAL...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AND 5 AM FRIDAY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 could you give me a link for that? TIA GYX accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z NAM didn't do them any favors in terms of QPF and they have lower ratios. They are playing it conservative. Interesting to see albany issue wsw for nw ct and western mass, okx holds firm with the advisory for southern ct, 3-5 outside chance at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The problem with that is they seem to be giving us 10:1 ratios with lower QPF than we expect it will end up as now, too. yep that ratio and chucking the .60 line will be a mistake on there part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z NAM didn't do them any favors in terms of QPF and they have lower ratios. They are playing it conservative. I dont think western or central ct will have lower ratios, in fact the ratios should be much better than further east, but OKX has done a fantastic job this winter, so no reason to doubt them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If I had a $1 for every inch below verification GYX forecasted for me in Franconia thus far this year, I'd be a rich man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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