mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 There is something about the 18ZNAM precip over NH and ME that seems strange..on the bad side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You could be right at 32 for a couple of hours, but then crash after 12 or so. Scott how are we looking in Dorchester/Southie/Quincy area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey Scott, critical thicknesses in the lower levels get right to the canal. Hopefully you can pull of some good snow. We gotta get this to go se a bit for Phil. He needs some snow. eh, i think i'm toast on this one. 1 or 2 then some short-lived downpours me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey Scott, critical thicknesses in the lower levels get right to the canal. Hopefully you can pull of some good snow. We gotta get this to go se a bit for Phil. He needs some snow. Are you speaking specifically off the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 There is something about the 18ZNAM precip over NH and ME that seems strange..on the bad side. what are you talking about? make sure you look at a qpf map that goes thru 0z . i.e 7pm tommorrow ...not 18z. ....like the one bob posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Scott how are we looking in Dorchester/Southie/Quincy area? I think pretty good. We may get to freezing for an hour or two during late morning, but we should be fine as it stands right now, on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Are you speaking specifically off the 18z NAM? Yeah 1000-850 CT's get to messenger, near 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think pretty good. We may get to freezing for an hour or two during late morning, but we should be fine as it stands right now, on this run. weenies are wonderin.........we have to watch for mixin issues up the S. shore? bristol...plymouth cty's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 weenies are wonderin.........we have to watch for mixin issues up the S. shore? bristol...plymouth cty's. I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, not sure what to make of the snow hole over NH, but likely has to do with the development of the mid level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Jay my best friend played football for Bridgeton in 1997 and 1998 Good friend of mine did in the fall of '99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice signal on the euro ensembles for Wednesday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice signal on the euro ensembles for Wednesday of next week. Our snowcones runneth over, huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Messenger, how far north do you see the R/S line goes? below Hey Scott, critical thicknesses in the lower levels get right to the canal. Hopefully you can pull of some good snow. We gotta get this to go se a bit for Phil. He needs some snow. below eh, i think i'm toast on this one. 1 or 2 then some short-lived downpours me thinks. I'd agree for now even here, couple of inches based just on the NAM. --- Scott and to the others that asked, my take on the NAM is the change line makes it to about exit 4 on Rte 3 on this run. Last run it was up near the Kingston mall, so this is a decent bump south and bucks the trend of the last 3-4 runs. I do not think what we saw just now was the NAM indicating anything other than that it was wrong with the earlier slower prog in the TN valley. In fact it actually just went from the slow side of guidance to jumping faster than the GFS. If the water vapor is a guide it might still be a little slow. That would bode well for everyone down to exit 2 on Rte 6 and maybe even Phil if it continues to run out underneath. The surface low track nudged a little e/se this run too. Again bucking the NW trend. Being the NAM I'll wait to put the umbrella away until I see other guidance. Yeah 1000-850 CT's get to messenger, near 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Enjoy the 6-12" dump tomorrow morning PVD-BOS! Will make for a splendid commute. Looks like this year the weekend rule decided to lapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Jerry must be coming up with every excuse in the book to get back here ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, not sure what to make of the snow hole over NH, but likely has to do with the development of the mid level low Southern NH areas seem to have been downgraded from "Advisory" to "Hazardous". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Enjoy the 6-12" dump tomorrow morning PVD-BOS! Will make for a splendid commute. Looks like this year the weekend rule decided to lapse. Too many storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We are too low..4-8 is even low, and we weren't even that. Baby steps I guess for them.. When Kevin Mannix at 6 a.m. has a better handle on a storm than your local NWS office at noon, there's something seriously wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's the old run at 12z versus the new run at 18z QPF 36 hours. The focus shifted east for sure out of CT/central MA and into EMA, NEMA and then Downeast Maine. At the same time it expanded QPF in downeast/northeast Maine. More in line with the rest of the guidance. I don't think it's a sign of a trend or anything else, just a correction vector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's the old run at 12z versus the new run at 18z QPF 36 hours. The focus shifted east for sure out of CT/central MA and into EMA, NEMA and then Downeast Maine. At the same time it expanded QPF in downeast/northeast Maine. More in line with the rest of the guidance. I don't think it's a sign of a trend or anything else, just a correction vector. Which puts it kind of in line with the GGEM and UK, and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm reminds me of the 12/13/07 storm; only it will be occurring during the AM instead of PM commute. I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ALB upgraded to warning..so we should see BOX follow suit shortly. I think my final call will be 8-12 regionwide..with the exception of far SE New Eng.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Which puts it kind of in line with the GGEM and UK, and others. do you have the gem map before its east of boston to show whats going on down in conn area. All the maps show it after its done with conn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The QPF loss is a little interesting...there is a fairly strange lack of QPF at 18 hours on the 18z NAM compared to 24 hours on the 12z NAM and the 12z GFS. It develops a stronger low and a stronger CCB...but since of the loss of WAA qpf in the early part of the storm...the NAM looks more in line with the GFS...but in reality it is doing something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 do you have the gem map before its east of boston to show whats going on down in conn area. All the maps show it after its done with conn. That's accumulated precip, so that's for the entire storm in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And I think we will def see some 14-16 inch lollis almost certainly..Best guess as to where would be NW RI up to east of ORH to west of Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The CF will probably sneak up to my front door for an hour or so..maybe to Jerry. Exactly why I wanna see one last tug to the N; I hate those events where the cf stays in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow BTV actually posted a WWA for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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