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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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Messenger, how far north do you see the R/S line goes?

below

Hey Scott, critical thicknesses in the lower levels get right to the canal. Hopefully you can pull of some good snow.

We gotta get this to go se a bit for Phil. He needs some snow.

below

eh, i think i'm toast on this one. 1 or 2 then some short-lived downpours me thinks.

I'd agree for now even here, couple of inches based just on the NAM.

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Scott and to the others that asked, my take on the NAM is the change line makes it to about exit 4 on Rte 3 on this run. Last run it was up near the Kingston mall, so this is a decent bump south and bucks the trend of the last 3-4 runs.

I do not think what we saw just now was the NAM indicating anything other than that it was wrong with the earlier slower prog in the TN valley. In fact it actually just went from the slow side of guidance to jumping faster than the GFS. If the water vapor is a guide it might still be a little slow. That would bode well for everyone down to exit 2 on Rte 6 and maybe even Phil if it continues to run out underneath. The surface low track nudged a little e/se this run too. Again bucking the NW trend. Being the NAM I'll wait to put the umbrella away until I see other guidance.

Yeah 1000-850 CT's get to messenger, near 15z.

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Here's the old run at 12z versus the new run at 18z QPF 36 hours. The focus shifted east for sure out of CT/central MA and into EMA, NEMA and then Downeast Maine. At the same time it expanded QPF in downeast/northeast Maine.

More in line with the rest of the guidance. I don't think it's a sign of a trend or anything else, just a correction vector.

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Here's the old run at 12z versus the new run at 18z QPF 36 hours. The focus shifted east for sure out of CT/central MA and into EMA, NEMA and then Downeast Maine. At the same time it expanded QPF in downeast/northeast Maine.

More in line with the rest of the guidance. I don't think it's a sign of a trend or anything else, just a correction vector.

Which puts it kind of in line with the GGEM and UK, and others.

CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_30HR.gif

CONUS_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_36HR.gif

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nam_slp_024l.gifgfs_ten_024l.gifThe QPF loss is a little interesting...there is a fairly strange lack of QPF at 18 hours on the 18z NAM compared to 24 hours on the 12z NAM and the 12z GFS. It develops a stronger low and a stronger CCB...but since of the loss of WAA qpf in the early part of the storm...the NAM looks more in line with the GFS...but in reality it is doing something different.

nam_slp_018l.gif

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