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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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Well, some of us like to derive a sense of personal enrichmment by participating in and thus honing are skills in activities that interest us; funny you ski, yet you have no intetnion of entering the professional pool.

It's called a hobby, slick.

Actually, I skied professionally for many years. Take it easy there big fella, I was just ribbin' you.lol

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:raining:

HAHA, me too. Pretty good consensus we both get wet. MM5 holding the line right on my head, but unless I see it droop east in the 0z runs I know where it's going to end.

Yeah, we may see a closed 850 contour just S of CC.

Looks much better for you, it's coming more in line with consensus jackpotting the QPF into EMA. You saw the changes elsewhere but I dare not speak of them here.

Jocular humor. It's a little bit more interesting than weenie references. All in fun, you know, haha.

100% agree! BTW Sunday River is cashing in huge on these storms. 121 trails now, will likely be fully open after this even the glades!

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At hr18, looks notably deeper .. more southern stream involvement. Mid levels are closer to closing off. Notably slower.

Honestly I think it's more the NAM adjusting out its normal 6-12 hour errors than a trend or anything else. All it's done is move towards the 12z GFS. It was WAAAY too slow with the southern s/w holding it back into TN when the rest of the guidance had it shearing into VA. here's the 12z GFS and 18z NAM for the same time.

It's just fallen into the approximately line of all the other guidance with the max QPF shifted some towards all the rest.

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does the 18hr nam qpf panel seem odd that parts of CT ri and ma went from .35 or so to .05 qpf.......even thou we cashin in the next 6 hour period...it doesn't offset the previous frame's "snowhole" . what i'm asking is do the changes at 5h make the over running precip prior to the event less likely in that corridor.....it still has the .10-.25 darker green shade north of route 2 into N sne and S CNE.

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