dendrite Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1-2" up here on top of the 2-3" tonight to welcome in the arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow, that's so close to a 12+ snow bomb it's scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This run has certainly left the door open for possible warning criteria snowfalls, at least for eastern sections. Definite improvements on this run, would like to see the rest of the 0z guidance follow. Still thinking the same as earlier, widespread 3-6'' with 4-8'' for eastern MA and maybe a few lollipop higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 SREFs? What SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It actually narrowly misses as a pretty decent storm...still a 2-5" fluff storm though as is...maybe 4-7" on the Cape this run. I think our hope is to really get that northern stream vortmax more potent as we get closer and it just might be enough to tug the sfc reflection closer and enhance the snowfall over our region. Its at least attempting to get a TROWAL going on this run near the Cape...whereas the 18z run was basically an isentropic upglide event until it was past us. Yeah it tries to hang some snow back for a few hours down there. It really hits them hard from 12z to 15z. I agree with what you said. Phasing is likely not an option, so hope that nrn stream s/w can dig and tug that low closer to the coast. That band of snow that precedes the main stuff, reminds me of the band that Sam was running naked through on 12/31/08. He got smoked from that mid level fronto band for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's making more sense now though relative to everything else. It's pretty much what I got from wills description of the 12z euro. .35" ish in se areas dropping off to the nw. Gfs will be interesting to see tonight. To be realistic the best dynamics are still missing even the cape by a decent margin for 36 hours lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Phil deserves a nice storm, so hopefully this one gets his area pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 So can we basically toss the 21z SREF's at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 keep the trend going and by 12z well be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah it tries to hang some snow back for a few hours down there. It really hits them hard from 12z to 15z. I agree with what you said. Phasing is likely not an option, so hope that nrn stream s/w can dig and tug that low closer to the coast. That band of snow that precedes the main stuff, reminds me of the band that Sam was running naked through on 12/31/08. He got smoked from that mid level fronto band for a few hours. That would be a great event to copy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If Kevin were up we'd all be bombarded with AWT's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If Kevin were up we'd all be bombarded with AWT's. AKT As Kevin Thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Gotta figure good snow growth, this could pan out better than I thought, that inflow intrigues me over the Arctic air, downstream seems to be laying a 4-8 carpet, throw in some pond water, hmmmm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So can we basically toss the 21z SREF's at this point? Well hopefully the rest of the guidance looks ok, and it's not the NAM pulling us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Phil deserves a nice storm, so hopefully this one gets his area pretty good. Nice storm for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You know looking at the 7 h and 8 h fields with strong s to SW winds over -10 8 h air might be more than I am thinking, that's a good inflow direction for us with such a cold air mass, delta T city It should produce more qpf then what is modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 AKT As Kevin Thought That's a good one! Definite keeper. Were eventually going to have to make a thread that lists all the acronyms we have...sort of like a wiki page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well hopefully the rest of the guidance looks ok, and it's not the NAM pulling us in. Wise seeing as it's changed every six hours for 8 straight runs. Gfs could be even more potent who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 A little closed off 850 circulation at 39h just SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It should produce more qpf then what is modeled Dunno 'bout you, but I'm still liking our chances. I see no reason to back off from my 3 or 4" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well hopefully the rest of the guidance looks ok, and it's not the NAM pulling us in. Well it would be good if the rest followed suit, As the Nam was the outlier and came further north, The GFS and Euro were not that bad so if we can hold or improve it we should do ok overall....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Dunno 'bout you, but I'm still liking our chances. I see no reason to back off from my 3 or 4" call. Yes, And anything over that would be a bonus, I could use a few inches to lube up the Hyfax's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A little closed off 850 circulation at 39h just SE of ACK. It's good to see those isobars pulled back nw. It will at least help out with some Atlantic inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Once again the 42h witching hour kicks in and the nam comes back to the pack. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's good to see those isobars pulled back nw. It will at least help out with some Atlantic inflow. And it won't take much given how cold the air mass will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's good to see those isobars pulled back nw. It will at least help out with some Atlantic inflow. Interesting run, thinking back, way back to 94, trying to recall the Jan system that dropped 5-10 over a cold dome, of course there were many but this rings a bell. I remember pretty good southerly southeastterly winds bringing the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Gotta figure good snow growth, this could pan out better than I thought, that inflow intrigues me over the Arctic air, downstream seems to be laying a 4-8 carpet, throw in some pond water, hmmmm, Let's revisit this in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is my range here in central CT? Would love to know how abd the commute is looking? Low end? High end? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Since MPM is in Jamaica, I will play his role again... currently on page 5 of this thread, when I get up, hopefully we are on page 15 or so. C'mon Goofus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just got a look at the soundings for me. Looks like 0.35" with surface temps in the upper 20's, 850's ~-7C, and 700mb at -10 to -12C. Good fluff there. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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