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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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The funny thing is that no WSWs are up and people could see 12"..

There isn't even an advisory here and the snow will start in 12 hours??

What is BOX doing?

If it still looks reasonable at 4 PM, I'm sure they'll issue one. Doesn't really matter if they issue now or in two hours from now. No one's paying attention until the 5 or 6 o'clock news, so they might as well take their sweet time at this point and get everything as fine tuned as possible.

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ditto here

any thoughts on 7AM flight arrival into PWM tomorrow morning? think they can keep the fluffy stuff off the runway?

I haven't really been paying attention to start time. Wee hours? I think the commute will drag but dunno about flights.

Haven't been able to follow the models very closely today, but it sounds like quite a shift. If that's true, then we're going to go straight from no headlines and "nuisance event" expectations to solid warnings -- with the onset very close. I know there have been some rumors among the "general public," but I think that most will be very surprised.

My co-workers told me that the tv stations and NWS are all from 2-6". I said I knew that, but latest guidance says wagons north. Point is, if it happens it'll catch people quite off guard here. Nice change of events from 24 hours ago.

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I do not think anyone will be caught off guard. We all have known all along that given the seasonal trends "" that there is some distinct potential for a snowstorm. NWS has been mentioning it for days and days.

P.S. I'm not an expert on the NWS or their agency , but correct me if I'm wrong, they forecast to verify a metric rather than real-world conditions. Is that not the only possible applicable measurement of work performed? ; the mudane statistical verification and the less wholesale shifting in forecasts and rather sutble trends, for ex...

I expect 4-8" as we've thought all along. Possibly 8-12" in some jackpots

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Whoa.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.327777761284445&lon=-71.28410339355469&site=gyx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -15.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -46.

Monday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -9.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Whoa.

http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text

Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -15.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -46.

Monday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -9.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Umm, I believe that would be a NH state record if that verified..

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:lol: to be fair, I wavered yesterday :( Kev's persistence FTW

Nearly everyone did. Nothing wrong with that. Everyone was waiting for the northern stream to kick in and for it to get NW but we were within 48 hours and going the wrong direction in terms of QPF. This one took longer than the others.

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Sorry, -47 is the record from 1934. I don't think it will get that cold, but wow.

Indeed. I was reading the Mt. Washington wiki page and found this:

For many years, the record low temperature was thought to be −47 °F (−44 °C) occurring on January 29, 1934, but upon the first in-depth examination of the data from the 19th century at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, a new record low was discovered. Mount Washington's official record low of −50 °F (−46 °C) was recorded on January 22, 1885. However, there is also hand-written evidence to suggest that an unofficial low of −59 °F (−51 °C) occurred on January 5, 1871.

That's news to me. Anyone else hear anything about that?

I also realized I'm not in the right thread... oops. :yikes:

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