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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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once again, they are late to the party

I just don't get those guys issuing AFD updates just "before" model runs come in - why not wait until at least a few of the 12z results are in????

You need to look at the changed discussion. If you read the timestamp on the AFD and only what is there they may not have changed the part you're looking at. Sometimes other parts need updates. Patience.

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Last to the party.......

Party starts midnightish. Rev KeV again spinning some Heavy heavy beats with some hardcore Run DmC rockin some DMX and really cranking some Beasties. Grandpa Bobarino will lead the coed naked synchronized snow swimming. Special notice this will be a shorter party than usual but just as intense, also tentative plans are for a huge block party Tuesday next week, we are in touch with KU and the wintertime band, see ya tonight.

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I only see like .45" or so.

Sometimes the SV maps are like Kevin drew them on MS paint in his basement. I've seen a several times where they are a lot more robust than WSI maps...though the two were pretty close leading up to the Jan 12 blizzard.

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You need to look at the changed discussion. If you read the timestamp on the AFD and only what is there they may not have changed the part you're looking at. Sometimes other parts need updates. Patience.

thanks, and I do

here's the 957AM update - note red text below. my point about waiting just a hair more for at least a few model results still stands

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

957 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS

OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. COLDER AIR

FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS LOW ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT

MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST

AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN 2 YEARS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

MORNING UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER

TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. APART FROM A LINGERING DECK OF CLOUDS OVER

FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES

SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 20S

ALONG THE COAST. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND

LOW TWENTIES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES

REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE CYCLONGENESIS OVER THE MID ATLC

REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM...A

BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE LATE NIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE

REGION...ALBIET IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE

INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WELL SOUTH OF NEW

ENGLAND. THE NAM CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE

INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN...TOO FAR EAST AND TOO

FAST MOVING...WITH VERY LITTLE WRAP AROUND PCPN TO PRODUCE HEAVY

SNOWS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM THAT THE OCEAN STORM WILL PASS WELL

S AND E OF NEW ENGL ON FRI. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED

THOUGH FROM THE OVERUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER

TROF FRI MRNG WITH A FEW INCHES PSBL WITH RAPID CLRG BY LATER IN

THE DAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WEEKEND THE

DOORS WILL BECOME WIDE OPEN FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO

RUSH IN ON A NWLY FLOW WITH AMS ORIGINATING FROM HUDSON BAY. OTHER

THAN THE VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRES THAT WILL BECOME CENTERED

OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...A TRANQUIL

AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORT TERM...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TODAY. CIGS/VSBY

LOWERING LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR CONDS BACK TO ME/NH.

LONG TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS FRI MRNG IPVG TO VFR LATER IN THE

DAY WITH SCT SNW SHWRS INTO FRI NIGHT IN THE MTNS. THE WEEKEND AND

BEYOND MAINLY VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED

FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE COASTAL STORM MOVES E

OF THE GULF OF MAINE...OTRW NO SIG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

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