OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Couple things to watch: We have 2mb/3hr pressure falls centered over eastern Kentucky -- slightly north of the model consensus low center at 18z Also -- keep an eye on the radar over Arkansas -- precip shield is notably more robust than modeled, and threatening to look a little more convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 cold conveyor belt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Probably an obvious answer to this, but what does the comma head look like on the model runs? I have tried to look for it when you guys mentioned it, but never see it. It's basically the representation of the radar echos when a system is really going to town.. Take a peek on the last page when the NMM and ARW are posted and there is a little slither of precip over boston.. that is basically the tip of the comma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MM5 QPF totals...lower res and higher res, for the record. That's the 3 meso models barring someone posting in house WRF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ryan, I just picked up my kids from preschool. The teacher and two other parents were talking about the snow. One person heard 8-12", one heard 3-6" and one heard 1". Unbelievable how information gets out to the public..\ Yesterday I wasn't on TV but I was expecting 2"-4" but did think higher amounts were possible if things developed faster and trended NW. I think with 18 hours lead time to bump things up from 2-4 to 4-8 doesn't really negatively impact people. They'll say "wow that sucks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 AKL = As Kevin Likes You and I up this way are going to need this storm to get its act together a little further south........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 have a steamer...... Can't beat a steamed weiner...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Civil weather discussion without the mention of balls for once, FTL. NCEP model diagnostic - no problems per them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOON REPORTS WBZ upped to 4-8" region wide (2-4" CC) WCVB upped to 5-9" eastern MA (except less CC), 3-7" west of 495 WHDH ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Balls deep Kev. I've played it conservative till this AM. 12z guidance played it's card and came up with a straight flush. Confidence of a 6"+ snowfall for eastern areas is pretty high now. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ryan, I just picked up my kids from preschool. The teacher and two other parents were talking about the snow. One person heard 8-12", one heard 3-6" and one heard 1". Unbelievable how information gets out to the public..\ Don't underestimate the public's ability to not understand what is said to them in plain English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Balls deep Kev. I've played it conservative till this AM. 12z guidance played it's card and came up with a straight flush. Confidence of a 6"+ snowfall for eastern areas is pretty high now. Enjoy. Heavy heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Balls deep Kev. I've played it conservative till this AM. 12z guidance played it's card and came up with a straight flush. Confidence of a 6"+ snowfall for eastern areas is pretty high now. Enjoy. Bob has the hot hand........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOON REPORTS WBZ upped to 4-8" region wide (2-4" CC) WCVB upped to 5-9" eastern MA (except less CC), 3-7" west of 495 WHDH ?? WBZ had 2-4 in southern RI and I think SE and southern CT. She thinks it's going to mix in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local guys taking the plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOON REPORTS WBZ upped to 4-8" region wide (2-4" CC) WCVB upped to 5-9" eastern MA (except less CC), 3-7" west of 495 WHDH ?? WHDH - 4 to 6, with 6 to 9 southwest of boston is what the new map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I never saw Bouchard waiver on Channel 7 in Boston. I saw a broadcast just prior to 6pm last night where he had all of us in 6+. Kudos to him. The prob with WHDH (and other stations prob) is when Bouchard goes 6+, then Dylan comes in the next morning saying 2-4". happens all the time. happened this morning. of course she just updated the map. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 WHDH - 4 to 6, with 6 to 9 southwest of boston is what the new map shows. I think that looks good IMO...I think there will be many 6 - 6.5" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Heavy heavy With a side of fries. The 12z GGEM is a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have a feeling that by 11pm broadcasts WCVB, WHDH, and WBZ will have added 2-3" on top of their current totals. Looking at model QPF totals, high ratios, and the trends this season, it seems quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Then we all freeze our privates off next week....this winter ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local guys taking the plunge. And the northern Maine snow attenuation forcefield remains fully operative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm pretty close to throwing a final call of 6-12", up from the 3-8", but I just want to see the 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Then we all freeze our privates off next week....this winter ftw. My temp for Sunday is 12 During the day and -12 sunday night........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And the northern Maine snow attenuation forcefield remains fully operative. They will do better then what that map has........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Getting an earlier flight....will be back b4 dinner. Another 6-10 with 12 lollipops coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The prob with WHDH (and other stations prob) is when Bouchard goes 6+, then Dylan comes in the next morning saying 2-4". happens all the time. happened this morning. of course she just updated the map. lol Yeah but she's good looking so it's okay. Then we all freeze our privates off next week....this winter ftw. Was supposed to ski again this weekend, the -32 degree air temp at Bretton Woods was a turn off... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.20583500104184&lon=-71.42349243164062&site=gyx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. North wind around 10 mph. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -23. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -3. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -32. Monday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 1. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Then we all freeze our privates off next week....this winter ftw. -14ºF Monday morning at BOS if GFS 2 meter raw numbers are to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And the northern Maine snow attenuation forcefield remains fully operative. You have pretty near what we have....although it is def. worse n of you. After 2007-08, they can deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My temp for Sunday is 12 During the day and -12 sunday night........ And Monday is colder. AFD from GYX this morning noted "coldest air in 2 yr". Not that it would take much to beat last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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