Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can you post the 12z maps? I cant right now, but they are posted in the nyc obs thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OTS or Rain, love this pattern. Congrats up north. I guess it's good for the ski areas, I'll be up there in another week. This past weekend, Sunapee was in real good shape. I think it's a little early to give up over by you yet. It's moving so fast the warming can only get so far west. It's over here and out towards the Cape that's in potential trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Would bring a lot of mixing/changing issues into SE areas of MA and maybe RI... 12 hour interval, but if it's following nearly a straight line it would run right over SE MA around Myles Standish forest. You gotta be kiddin!! Other than December 2009 I've only had a couple, maybe only one pure snowstorms above 6 inches that didn't change to rain or sleet since 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Albany throwing up advisories for their CWA, including GC Snow gets snow.mmmmmore!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lundberg lets it rip I'm normally a skeptic as far as NAM printout is concern, as it tends to suffer from some feedback issues. However, given the above-forecast precipitation in Missouri and parts of Illinois, and the expected deepening of the storm tonight and tomorrow morning as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast then crosses Nantucket, I can see how it is the model closer to reality at this juncture. Furthermore, with the front that came through the area yesterday more or less stalled from the Delmarva Peninsula back to southern West Virginia, the air south of here is still relatively mild. With the storm deepening tonight, some of that milder air will get summoned back to the north and into the storms' circulation. Lastly, the air to the north is pretty cold and dry, suggesting 20 to 1 ratios that would translate .6 inches of liquid to a foot of snow fairly easily. So, if that NAM forecast is right, my worry of 15 to 20 inches of snow would be warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1111 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011...A HIGH IMPACT BUT SHORT DURATION SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OFTHE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CTZ002>004-MAZ002>023-026-RIZ001>008-210015-/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.110121T0500Z-110121T1700Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND1111 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO NOON EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL DATA WILL BE EVALUATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE CAPE AND MARTHAS VINEYARD MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION...BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT AS ROADS QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING ANDWALKING DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ON UNTREATED ROADWAYSAND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTSNEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERESLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week looks interesting, despite what the GFS shows. I like the Euro..though I am concerned with that one that it taks a farther west track and there are p-type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes, different pattern these past two events with the NAO block having broken down....but the Boxing Day storm and the Jan 12th HECS were essentially the same pattern as the first 3 weeks of December...big west based -NAO block and a -PNA...we're now going into a big +PNA pattern well i thought the jan 12 event was a rising NAO, CPC graph shows that NAO was near neutral, maybe even postive (archembault type event). http://www.cpc.ncep..../nao_index.html boxing day storm was a big NAO and AO neg, storms bombs south of the area and jackpots S and E in jersey and nyc. this is where i wonder about the NAO and AO correlation. you know a lot more about it than i do. and yeah, it is definitely more complex than just mentioing the AO but one thing ive learned, an extreme neg AO and strong west blocking NAO doesnt seem great for anyone north of NYC.....its a red flag....but i havent been following weather teleconnections long as you lol....just what ive seen as an observational experiment the past 2 seasons which to be fair, have been extreme (which i understand isnt exactly a huge body of evidence). but as a bystander, its pretty impressive how things have changed with a relaxation in these parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol i hadn't really looked at anything this morning... but 12z models definitely more impressive. It's one of those winters where everything overperforms. This is your kind of winter to get forecasts right! I still like my first call of 3-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lundberg lets it rip I'm normally a skeptic as far as NAM printout is concern, as it tends to suffer from some feedback issues. However, given the above-forecast precipitation in Missouri and parts of Illinois, and the expected deepening of the storm tonight and tomorrow morning as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast then crosses Nantucket, I can see how it is the model closer to reality at this juncture. Furthermore, with the front that came through the area yesterday more or less stalled from the Delmarva Peninsula back to southern West Virginia, the air south of here is still relatively mild. With the storm deepening tonight, some of that milder air will get summoned back to the north and into the storms' circulation. Lastly, the air to the north is pretty cold and dry, suggesting 20 to 1 ratios that would translate .6 inches of liquid to a foot of snow fairly easily. So, if that NAM forecast is right, my worry of 15 to 20 inches of snow would be warranted dear god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Tom Brady broken foot...surgery...just announced on WBZ. --- ARW and NMM...one looks pretty close to the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1111 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011...A HIGH IMPACT BUT SHORT DURATION SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OFTHE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CTZ002>004-MAZ002>023-026-RIZ001>008-210015-/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.110121T0500Z-110121T1700Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND1111 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO NOON EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL DATA WILL BE EVALUATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE CAPE AND MARTHAS VINEYARD MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FALLING DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION...BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT AS ROADS QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING ANDWALKING DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ON UNTREATED ROADWAYSAND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTSNEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERESLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.&&$$ ART* As Rev Thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM version ARW version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh yeah..I totally understand..it's your and the the other mets livlihoods.and your careers. I know typically you can't smash and grab your balls to the wall. You have to be at least mildly cautious. That being said..this one had all the earmarks yesterday of being something quite a bit more than 2-4. that;s why i was so gung ho on this being 6-12. i layed out my reasons earlier for why i thought the pattern argued for a bigger storm. I have the luxury of not reporting to anyone except all the weenies on here if i bust..so understandably you guys have to play it closer to the vest.. The one thing that bothers me is many of the public forecasts you see/hear are always closed minded, and don't even mention the potential is threre for more. So now tonight when people flip on the 6:00 news and forecasts are for 6-12..up from 2-4 or 3-6 this morning..it pisses the public off..because noone mentioned that higher amounts were possible. Great post; I say the same thing all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Great post; I say the same thing all the time. Well that and all my FB friends lol.. who will rip me..until I rip back like I did against DT until he deleted me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM version ARW version That makes me like my thinking of KEV-ORH-GAY and BOS, but BOS gets close to a dryslot if it goes further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 3-6" now looking likely here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We actually squandered a pretty good pattern the first 3 weeks of December. People were ready to hang themselves and we said give the pattern another shot thru early January and it would probably produce. Yes, A lot of the frustration up here went back to last winter as well, Watching December slip away when that is typically a decent month here was very dissapointing to say the least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 3-6" now looking likely here Probably closer to the 3-4" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That makes me like my thinking of KEV-ORH-GAY and BOS, but BOS gets close to a dryslot if it goes further nw. Think it highlights the uncertainty still...the three highest rest models are kind of all over the place in relative terms....for so close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Tom Brady broken foot...surgery...just announced on WBZ. --- ARW and NMM...one looks pretty close to the MM5 Yesterday's news on the surgery but he had a stress fracture all year, not a big deal. Good job Rev, Joe, and the NAM. And good ratios could turn those models into 8-12 easy already. Wow. Here we go again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ok...someone please tell me what CCB stands for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lundberg lets it rip I'm normally a skeptic as far as NAM printout is concern, as it tends to suffer from some feedback issues. However, given the above-forecast precipitation in Missouri and parts of Illinois, and the expected deepening of the storm tonight and tomorrow morning as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast then crosses Nantucket, I can see how it is the model closer to reality at this juncture. Furthermore, with the front that came through the area yesterday more or less stalled from the Delmarva Peninsula back to southern West Virginia, the air south of here is still relatively mild. With the storm deepening tonight, some of that milder air will get summoned back to the north and into the storms' circulation. Lastly, the air to the north is pretty cold and dry, suggesting 20 to 1 ratios that would translate .6 inches of liquid to a foot of snow fairly easily. So, if that NAM forecast is right, my worry of 15 to 20 inches of snow would be warranted I'm sorry, but I have to inflict warmberg with a 3-bunner: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ok...someone please tell me what CCB stands for... Cold Conveyor Belt or basically the snow side of the comma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So the 12z NAM metar for KORH spits out 20.2", the 12z GFS spits out 9.4", and the NMM/ARW graphics just posted look like .75 QPF at 15:1-20:1 ratios. Guidance seems to be pointing toward the potential for a solid foot in parts of central and northeastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm sorry, but I have to inflict warmberg with a 3-bunner: :weenie: Truckin a little to qiuck for those totals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold Conveyor Belt or basically the snow side of the comma head thank you...that's been nagging me for a while...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ok...someone please tell me what CCB stands for... cold conveyor belt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold Conveyor Belt or basically the snow side of the comma head Probably an obvious answer to this, but what does the comma head look like on the model runs? I have tried to look for it when you guys mentioned it, but never see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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