Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Tip will have a three paragraph thesis about compressibility. I guess the NAM/SREF's could be right, but to have them up against the GFS/Euro and Ensm. seems like David v Goliath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lack of blocking really is not helping this storm like the previous ones. It just wants to swing through to the northeast without anything to force it south....the +PNA ridge is decent but its not enough by itself, its not a monster ridge...its de-amplifying a bit leading up to the event. Yep 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam was terrible enough already at 18z! At 0z it did much better with one of the key s/w, so let's see how it does throughout the run. i'm afraid to say the writing is one the wall with this one guys. i'm thinking i'd put money on the nam continuing to lower qpf until were left with a wide spread 2 inch snowfall if were lucky. 3 inch lollies on the cape. did the Gfs not trend down with qpf as well and 18z ens. shift se....now just need a euro fart se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm getting more snow today than I will on Friday (0.5" of feathers now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm getting more snow today than I will on Friday (0.5" of feathers now) Fear not, 6-12 for all of us. -- Nam doesn't look terrible through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All this pearl-clutching over the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is trying to dig again relative to 18z, but doesn't look like it'll make much of a difference, at least at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lack of blocking really is not helping this storm like the previous ones. It just wants to swing through to the northeast without anything to force it south....the +PNA ridge is decent but its not enough by itself, its not a monster ridge...its de-amplifying a bit leading up to the event. Looking a bit better thru 18h compared to 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam looks like it wants to get our hopes up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Certainly is digging more but will it be enough...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Fear not, 6-12 for all of us. -- Nam doesn't look terrible through 24 Accuweather radio guy and Rev said so! at 27 it looks ok for southern folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam looks like it wants to get our hopes up again Lol what hopes? If you're hoping for a 1-3" event then ok... This storm is finished... the SREFS have .10 QPF as a max for NE now... Time to look onto the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks as though the northern s/w is leaving the southern s/w behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GC gets busy at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like that the vortmax on the 00z NAM is more potent and consolidated, this will help give a nice little shot of snow even if the trough isn't digging that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 30 HR doesn't look too bad really, if it can dig a little more by 36 and have the main s/w be negatively tilted that could certainly help out to potentially get some low end warning criteria snows for some or perhaps much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's trying to pull together at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It looks better then at 18z....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like that the vortmax on the 00z NAM is more potent and consolidated, this will help give a nice little shot of snow even if the trough isn't digging that much. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Def better than 18z.That tightly wound vortmax should help. Low is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Great plume of high RH values out ahead of it as well so once we can get some lift to get close into the area we could start seeing pockets of snow showers develop out ahead of the main batch which would certainly help someone in the final accumulation department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Def better than 18z.That tightly wound vortmax should help. Low is further north. Yes, This is not bad from where it was........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, at least it is all comfortably snow, if I am reading twisterdata sounding thingy correctly. Everything is to the left of the 0*C even at the coast of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Great plume of high RH values out ahead of it as well so once we can get some lift to get close into the area we could start seeing pockets of snow showers develop out ahead of the main batch which would certainly help someone in the final accumulation department. Yeah it's sending a band of lighter snows out well to the northeast, due to mid level processes. I mentioned that earlier today...it might give areas in nrn mass some help even though they are removed from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Def better than 18z.That tightly wound vortmax should help. Low is further north. It actually narrowly misses as a pretty decent storm...still a 2-5" fluff storm though as is...maybe 4-7" on the Cape this run. I think our hope is to really get that northern stream vortmax more potent as we get closer and it just might be enough to tug the sfc reflection closer and enhance the snowfall over our region. Its at least attempting to get a TROWAL going on this run near the Cape...whereas the 18z run was basically an isentropic upglide event until it was past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Eastern areas would get into the ccb on this run. The new solution each run of the nam deal continues, but at least it's moving towards consensus (sometimes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes, This is not bad from where it was........ You know looking at the 7 h and 8 h fields with strong s to SW winds over -10 8 h air might be more than I am thinking, that's a good inflow direction for us with such a cold air mass, delta T city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A little west and we could see 3-6", 4-7" in more areas... Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It actually narrowly misses as a pretty decent storm...still a 2-5" fluff storm though as is...maybe 4-7" on the Cape this run. I think our hope is to really get that northern stream vortmax more potent as we get closer and it just might be enough to tug the sfc reflection closer and enhance the snowfall over our region. Its at least attempting to get a TROWAL going on this run near the Cape...whereas the 18z run was basically an isentropic upglide event until it was past us. It looks like it's a bit more negatively tilted too at 36 than the 18z NAM...something that may help tug it a bit closer to the coast at 42...just a bit stronger northern stream would certainly do the trick as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Eastern areas would get into the ccb on this run. The new solution each run of the nam deal continues, but at least it's moving towards consensus (sometimes) It's making more sense now though relative to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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