ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MM5 qpf doesn't really match up with the mid-level features well...but that is a typical problem it has once outside of 24h...it will probably be a lot better on its 00z run for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pattern recognition!!!!! It's been the story all winter. Not more than 2 hrs ago you posted 2-4 for most of us lol...Flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was a tough forecast yesterday. No way would I have gone 6-12 for BOS..or even 5-10". Even if you have the seasonal trend in mind..you can hedge a little heavier, but it becomes borderline irresponsible if I went 6-12 for KBOS..given the data I had. We can talk about it all we want on the boards, but you just caused everything to go code red if you forecast 6-12". Oh yeah..I totally understand..it's your and the the other mets livlihoods.and your careers. I know typically you can't smash and grab your balls to the wall. You have to be at least mildly cautious. That being said..this one had all the earmarks yesterday of being something quite a bit more than 2-4. that;s why i was so gung ho on this being 6-12. i layed out my reasons earlier for why i thought the pattern argued for a bigger storm. I have the luxury of not reporting to anyone except all the weenies on here if i bust..so understandably you guys have to play it closer to the vest.. The one thing that bothers me is many of the public forecasts you see/hear are always closed minded, and don't even mention the potential is threre for more. So now tonight when people flip on the 6:00 news and forecasts are for 6-12..up from 2-4 or 3-6 this morning..it pisses the public off..because noone mentioned that higher amounts were possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pattern recognition!!!!! It's been the story all winter. We actually squandered a pretty good pattern the first 3 weeks of December. People were ready to hang themselves and we said give the pattern another shot thru early January and it would probably produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MM5 qpf doesn't really match up with the mid-level features well...but that is a typical problem it has once outside of 24h...it will probably be a lot better on its 00z run for up here. The 36km MM5 is SE of the 12km by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ensembles are slightly northwest and slightly stronger than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you have to consider season trends as an amateur difficult to do that as a pro met on tv though lol hopefully my 12+ in spots can verify somehow i dont think anyone would be truly shocked "Its snows where it wants to snow" congrats again lol Forecasting is easy when you're an amateur and always playing with house money so to speak. Not so easy when you're giving a forecast to thousands or millions of people that will remember how often you are wrong and there's no room for gloating when you do get it right. Not to mention a pro's livelihood depends on being right more often than not for as many places as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We actually squandered a pretty good pattern the first 3 weeks of December. People were ready to hang themselves and we said give the pattern another shot thru early January and it would probably produce. this is a different pattern though now isnt it? that one featured extreme neg AO to record levels, and the outcome was exactly the same as last year, S and E jackpopts in jersey. since its relaxed, things have changed a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh yeah..I totally understand..it's your and the the other mets livlihoods.and your careers. I know typically you can't smash and grab your balls to the wall. You have to be at least mildly cautious. That being said..this one had all the earmarks yesterday of being something quite a bit more than 2-4. that;s why i was so gung ho on this being 6-12. i layed out my reasons earlier for why i thought the pattern argued for a bigger storm. I have the luxury of not reporting to anyone except all the weenies on here if i bust..so understandably you guys have to play it closer to the vest.. The one thing that bothers me is many of the public forecasts you see/hear are always closed minded, and don't even mention the potential is threre for more. So now tonight when people flip on the 6:00 news and forecasts are for 6-12..up from 2-4 or 3-6 this morning..it pisses the public off..because noone mentioned that higher amounts were possible. I think that's the key. Same goes when the forecast could bust the other way. Forecasters should be mentioning the possibility of a change well into SE MA just to play it safe for now, but few will. They'll target the r/s line around the canal and call it a day, when if the trend continues and it's raining at 4am with schools closed people will wonder what happened down here - AGAIN. The bust potential on the wet/non white side down in SE areas is growing rapidly. I never saw Bouchard waiver on Channel 7 in Boston. I saw a broadcast just prior to 6pm last night where he had all of us in 6+. Kudos to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh yeah..I totally understand..it's your and the the other mets livlihoods.and your careers. I know typically you can't smash and grab your balls to the wall. You have to be at least mildly cautious. That being said..this one had all the earmarks yesterday of being something quite a bit more than 2-4. that;s why i was so gung ho on this being 6-12. i layed out my reasons earlier for why i thought the pattern argued for a bigger storm. I have the luxury of not reporting to anyone except all the weenies on here if i bust..so understandably you guys have to play it closer to the vest.. the one thing that bothers is me is many of the public forecasts you see/hear are always closed minded, and dodn't even mention the potential is threre for more. So now tonight when people flip on the 6:00news and forecasts are for 6-12..up from 2-4 or 3-6 this morning..it pisses the public off..because noone mentioned that higher amounts were possible. I left the window open for a more robust solution, so luckily my conference calls were for discussion purposes only. Today is when planning comes in as to whether or not airlines cancel flights. Luckily this should be a NYC and BOS storm.. more impact for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ensembles are slightly northwest and slightly stronger than the operational. Yeah...looks like about 0.50" to 0.75" QPF for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh yeah..I totally understand..it's your and the the other mets livlihoods.and your careers. I know typically you can't smash and grab your balls to the wall. You have to be at least mildly cautious. That being said..this one had all the earmarks yesterday of being something quite a bit more than 2-4. that;s why i was so gung ho on this being 6-12. i layed out my reasons earlier for why i thought the pattern argued for a bigger storm. I have the luxury of not reporting to anyone except all the weenies on here if i bust..so understandably you guys have to play it closer to the vest.. The one thing that bothers me is many of the public forecasts you see/hear are always closed minded, and don't even mention the potential is threre for more. So now tonight when people flip on the 6:00 news and forecasts are for 6-12..up from 2-4 or 3-6 this morning..it pisses the public off..because noone mentioned that higher amounts were possible. I thought 2"-4" was likely but did think more was possible. "more" is the way to go this month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ensembles are slightly northwest and slightly stronger than the operational. Keep it comin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is a different pattern though now isnt it? that one featured extreme neg AO to record levels, and the outcome was exactly the same as last year. since its relaxed, things have changed a lot. Yes, different pattern these past two events with the NAO block having broken down....but the Boxing Day storm and the Jan 12th HECS were essentially the same pattern as the first 3 weeks of December...big west based -NAO block and a -PNA...we're now going into a big +PNA pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ensembles are slightly northwest and slightly stronger than the operational. They are stronger for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We actually squandered a pretty good pattern the first 3 weeks of December. People were ready to hang themselves and we said give the pattern another shot thru early January and it would probably produce. Yeah, there were a lot of frustrated wienies before we finally got the first one under our belt, its been a lot of fun since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ensembles are slightly northwest and slightly stronger than the operational. Would bring a lot of mixing/changing issues into SE areas of MA and maybe RI... 12 hour interval, but if it's following nearly a straight line it would run right over SE MA around Myles Standish forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I thought 2"-4" was likely but did think more was possible. "more" is the way to go this month lol I know..Just an awesome awesome winter. This is shaping up to be the best one I've ever lived thru i think personally anyway. You guys have a tough job and i know how tough it is. But the industry as a whole needs to lay the options out there for the public better. there was no tv mention yesterday or even this morning of the possibility this could be a bigger event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I left the window open for a more robust solution, so luckily my conference calls were for discussion purposes only. Today is when planning comes in as to whether or not airlines cancel flights. Luckily this should be a NYC and BOS storm.. more impact for BOS. nmm and arw are hitting nyc metro pretty hard, especially around ewr, looks like .5 qpf so not too bad maybe 5-8 around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They are stronger for sure. do you find gfs ensemble mean precip and system strength to be useful this close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I know..Just an awesome awesome winter. This is shaping up to be the best one I've ever lived thru i think personally anyway. You guys have a tough job and i know how tough it is. But the industry as a whole needs to lay the options out there for the public better. there was no tv mention yesterday or even this morning of the possibility this could be a bigger event Yesterday I wasn't on TV but I was expecting 2"-4" but did think higher amounts were possible if things developed faster and trended NW. I think with 18 hours lead time to bump things up from 2-4 to 4-8 doesn't really negatively impact people. They'll say "wow that sucks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I know..Just an awesome awesome winter. This is shaping up to be the best one I've ever lived thru i think personally anyway. You guys have a tough job and i know how tough it is. But the industry as a whole needs to lay the options out there for the public better. there was no tv mention yesterday or even this morning of the possibility this could be a bigger event Next week looks interesting, despite what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nmm and arw are hitting nyc metro pretty hard, especially around ewr, looks like .5 qpf so not too bad maybe 5-8 around that area. Can you post the 12z maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So at this point track is on target, now we need the LP to strengthen quicker? for the higher amounts that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I know..Just an awesome awesome winter. This is shaping up to be the best one I've ever lived thru i think personally anyway. You guys have a tough job and i know how tough it is. But the industry as a whole needs to lay the options out there for the public better. there was no tv mention yesterday or even this morning of the possibility this could be a bigger event Well that's BS I was bombarded by co workers yesterday morning about the big storm coming. Well advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ensembles seem very close to the op run at 12z tomorrow. They looked a shade west up here takes the low just east of Eastport.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OTS or Rain, love this pattern. Congrats up north. I guess it's good for the ski areas, I'll be up there in another week. This past weekend, Sunapee was in real good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They looked a shade west up here takes the low just east of Eastport.......... Yeah they curl it north nicely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well that's BS I was bombarded by co workers yesterday morning about the big storm coming. Well advertised. Yeah I think most people knew a storm was coming. Going from 2"-4" to 12"+ people will get pissed... but 2-4 to 4-8" a day out I don't think people care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Albany throwing up advisories for their CWA, including GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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