SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If I were to lock in all solutions @ 48 hours out this year, My area would be approaching 60"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Moderate snow falling in Keene right now btw Very gentle, but filling the air pretty densely Your map may not be so bad after all..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Downeast Maine is not, I still expect 3-6" here until it looks otherwise.............. I'm still having loads of low confidence on predicting amounts particularly for our area... we were looking at as low as 1-2" before 12z imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nothing to scientific, but seeing 9Z SREF means being close to GFS, 5 to 8 inches seems like a decent guess for BOS. Speaking of school, its seems it falls heaviest after the school/no school decisions would be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Keep coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Keep coming NW. LOL..it doesn't need to drop the heaviest snows..anymore NW and you and BOS flirt with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Keep coming NW. NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All the changes thus far have been a product of the northern stream digging more, which allows the surface low to start deepening further southwest and is thus stronger at our latitude. Problem is, without a clean phase, we get diffuse differential vorticity advection, uniformly lowering pressures across a wide area, and the surface low is therefore not getting any more intense with each model run (i.e. the low level vorticity is remaining about the same). In addition, this is why we aren't getting a low closing off at 700mb -- heights are being more dependent on temperature advection rather than DVA. So really a simply NW trend (and nothing else) continuing today wouldn't yield much more QPF than is advertised currently, and would just result in some mixing issues. Obviously excellent movements thus far in the model runs, that were to some extent anticipated (kudos Will and Kev).. Just saying what we might like to see to make things even more interesting. I think you are right in that a trend nw won't help aid in qpf. The trend will be to see of we can get a stronger vortmax to help kick off cyclogenesis on the coast of NJ. If that happens, then all the feedback processes will help with qpf. That said, even with an open wave at 700mb...soundings try to show an area of moist adiabatic ascent that could easily support heavier bands due to enhanced lift. 850mb tries to close off over se mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm still having loads of low confidence on predicting amounts particularly for our area... we were looking at as low as 1-2" before 12z imby. Further west was not a good spot up until 12z, Euro at 00z had most of us in .50" outside of the Mtns so we shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL..it doesn't need to drop the heaviest snows..anymore NW and you and BOS flirt with rain I understand that....I want that to take place; these cold fluff bombs screw me far more often than they jackpot me....gimme wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Keep coming NW. LOL, you are already in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here we go! Yeah, that will change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The seasonal trend continues...... Unbelievable how every storm this season has started as a whiff for Maine and ended up trending NW. Liking once again where I live. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL, you are already in the sweet spot. I haven't looked at anything yet, today...I just hate those cold, powder events that confine oes enhancement to KBEV and se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, that will change... in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Further west was not a good spot up until 12z, Euro at 00z had most of us in .50" outside of the Mtns so we shall see.... Lol... nuts.. I must already have a 25-20" snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I haven't looked at anything yet, today...I just hate those cold, powder events that confine oes enhancement to KBEV and se MA. There should be good mid level enhancement for you. I don't see a screwjob for you where you get 3" and BVY gets 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you are right in that a trend nw won't help aid in qpf. The trend will be to see of we can get a stronger vortmax to help kick off cyclogenesis on the coast of NJ. If that happens, then all the feedback processes will help with qpf. That said, even with an open wave at 700mb...soundings try to show an area of moist adiabatic ascent that could easily support heavier bands due to enhanced lift. 850mb tries to close off over se mass too. Good post, Scooter. Right now we need to see mid levels start to jumpstart a bit faster to help organize thing a bit better. I'd say 4"-8" looks good for most of us... probably a bit more up near Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All the changes thus far have been a product of the northern stream digging more, which allows the surface low to start deepening further southwest and is thus stronger at our latitude. Problem is, without a clean phase, we get diffuse differential vorticity advection, uniformly lowering pressures across a wide area, and the surface low is therefore not getting any more intense with each model run (i.e. the low level vorticity is remaining about the same). In addition, this is why we aren't getting a low closing off at 700mb -- heights are being more dependent on temperature advection rather than DVA. So really a simply NW trend (and nothing else) continuing today wouldn't yield much more QPF than is advertised currently, and would just result in some mixing issues. Obviously excellent movements thus far in the model runs, that were to some extent anticipated (kudos Will and Kev).. Just saying what we might like to see to make things even more interesting. Agreed 100% as usual. looking at the Bufkit for KPVD had preety low ratios with some freezing rain. whats the deal with that ratios under 10:1 majority of the time. It's a little early for the MM5 based on earlier storms but it keeps the frozen line to about the canal and then crashes it SE. It's really nailed highlighting potential mix issues the last few systems particularly inside of 12-18 hours (tonight). It drops the most QPF right on the other side of the changeover line. Are we riding meso scale this time or sticking with the NAM If I were to lock in all solutions @ 48 hours out this year, My area would be approaching 60"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 in what way? Way up, Manchester is going to get 5-10 in this at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I haven't looked at anything yet, today...I just hate those cold, powder events that confine oes enhancement to KBEV and se MA. This is the type of storm with a little wind your neighbor will end up measuring 3" more when your stuff blows into his yard........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good post, Scooter. Right now we need to see mid levels start to jumpstart a bit faster to help organize thing a bit better. I'd say 4"-8" looks good for most of us... probably a bit more up near Ray. Not more than 2 hrs ago you posted 2-4 for most of us lol...Flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Unbelievable how every storm this season has started as a whiff for Maine and ended up trending NW. Liking once again where I live. Bring it on! The hits keep on coming, Sure beats 2010......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snow now. Snow later. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not more than 2 hrs ago you posted 2-4 for most of us lol...Flip flop lol i hadn't really looked at anything this morning... but 12z models definitely more impressive. It's one of those winters where everything overperforms. This is your kind of winter to get forecasts right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not more than 2 hrs ago you posted 2-4 for most of us lol...Flip flop It was a tough forecast yesterday. No way would I have gone 6-12 for BOS..or even 5-10". Even if you have the seasonal trend in mind..you can hedge a little heavier, but it becomes borderline irresponsible if I went 6-12 for KBOS..given the data I had. We can talk about it all we want on the boards, but you just caused everything to go code red if you forecast 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Saved and posted for the record. MM5 is a pretty quick hitter for most and would keep everything a shade SE of the NAM it appears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ensembles seem very close to the op run at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you have to consider season trends as an amateur difficult to do that as a pro met on tv though lol hopefully my 12+ in spots can verify somehow i dont think anyone would be truly shocked "Its snows where it wants to snow" congrats again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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