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Friday, January 21st Storm Discussion II


Baroclinic Zone

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I was in high school during that 12/23/97 event. It was incredible. By the time I got out of school around 2pm there was a solid 18" on the ground. I actually walked home in it, up Winter Hill on the north side of Worcester (anyone who knows Winter Hill and Chester St can imagine how ridiculous that was).

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GYX still not putting much into this event:

(from 9:57am discussion)

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

"LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES

REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE CYCLONGENESIS OVER THE MID ATLC

REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM...A

BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE LATE NIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE

REGION...ALBIET IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE

INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WELL SOUTH OF NEW

ENGLAND. THE NAM CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE

INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN...TOO FAR EAST AND TOO

FAST MOVING...WITH VERY LITTLE WRAP AROUND PCPN TO PRODUCE HEAVY

SNOWS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA."

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It was a 6 hour snow bomb that produced amounts over 18" between ORH and ASH when 1-3" was predicted.

It will likely never be repeated in our lives.

One of my favorite storms ever. It was supposed to be 1-3 inches and a change to rain if I remember correctly. It never changed to rain.

I had to drive from Norwood to Littleton in the afternoon. Brutal. It started snowing around 7 and was over by late day. Littleton got around 18inches.

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RGEM looks like the NAM through 24h.

RGEM IMO is the clear winner. Has been far west of all models for a good day and it's been rock consistent with a track over the Cape/near the Cape.

It's tough to tell but it's nowhere near as wet as the NAM, but that's par for the course. Actually it's not that much different... 5mm through 24 into a lot of CT, 5mm after into eastern, 10mm up around weathefella.

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Final Call...not going for widespread warning amounts due to the speed of the system. Widespread general 3-6" with perhaps a bit more focused south of Boston into interior SEMA in the usual ocean enhancement zones.

Again, I'm an amateur...take with a grain of salt.

If the NAM and RGEM are right, shift it about 15-20 miles nw.

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