dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I didn't threaten anyone! There's a difference between a threat and a promise. Anyhow, if the 12z NAM is on to something, you may well see 5" in CT (even if it's overdoing the QPF a bit; ratios should be a nudge generous for many places). Would not matter anyways, We usually shoot first and ask questions later when strangers drive up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12/23/97 is coming for a visit. Amts in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow--just took my briefest look at the 12z NAM. Congrats to the Rev on what looks like a great call. Let the trend continue!!! Tropics suck!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Amts in that? It was a 6 hour snow bomb that produced amounts over 18" between ORH and ASH when 1-3" was predicted. It will likely never be repeated in our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks like I pickeded the right day to be in boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12/23/97 is coming for a visit. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was a 6 hour snow bomb that produced amounts over 18" between ORH and ASH when 1-3" was predicted. It will likely never be repeated in our lives. Huge latitude storm, coastal to Kev 4-8. You to acton 18-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Arent you the guy that just threatened to kill someones family? I rather wait for someone elses answer. Troll! Don't worry, Zeus would make sure they enjoyed it... I say yes! 5-10 for CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was a 6 hour snow bomb that produced amounts over 18" between ORH and ASH when 1-3" was predicted. It will likely never be repeated in our lives. wasn't that the same event TT brought up for the SW flow event yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wasn't that the same event TT brought up for the SW flow event yesterday? Yeah it probably was. He loves to talk about that event. I do too, it was pretty amazing...it still has never quite been explained on what happened in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL Sick radar grab!! I'll have one of those please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12/23/97 is coming for a visit. I'll never forget that one. The forecast wasn't even enough to cancel school, and they ended up doing early dismissal right during the worst of it. My bus got stuck multiple times on the way home - the kids had to get out and try to dig the bus out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 what is the obsession with school cancellation? i the ne thread? i thought that was more ma nyc phl thread stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What's the theory on why at this point? It seems to be getting worse not better. Would agree with Will though that the Euro has essentially been at least an advisory even for the last day or so. And it ramped up considerably at 0z. Watch it go out to sea this run RGEM has been pretty darn consistent, it insisted on a track further west than every other model FWIW. Well nrn stream systems tend to do that. Sometimes the models don't catch onto this until about 36 hrs out. When all the energy comes into the US, models seem to strength the nrn stream on their solutions...perhaps because of balloon coverage. Combine that, and the srn stream shortwave dancing around very close in proximity..trying to phase, and you get a nw trend. It also seems like the models are finally bring the low closer to the best PVA. It was quite displace on yesterday's runs. Looking at critical thicknesses, it seems mostly snow for you as of now. Jackpot on the NAM seems from near central CT ene through ORH and BOS..perhaps 30 miles either side..esp to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, not sure about the time stamp, says 1pm today must be off from the time zones/UTC. I'm thinking that was from pre-NAM. Face value it would rain quite a bit down here and if carried throughout the rest of the models who's to say it's not done going NW? Timestamp(s) are fixed on his site. I noticed it a week or so ago, seemed like everything was off by 6 hours. It shows 712am now...Hi Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL That radar is sick..that looks like 4-6 inches per hour type stuff right up the spine of the ORH hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't worry, Zeus would make sure they enjoyed it... I say yes! 5-10 for CT! this would be A big bump from the 2-4 forcasted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow that's pretty extreme mesoscale stuff... was there any explanation for that 50+ dbz band? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That radar is sick..that looks like 4-6 inches per hour type stuff right up the spine of the ORH hills 8" in one hour in Ayer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That radar is sick..that looks like 4-6 inches per hour type stuff right up the spine of the ORH hills It was more like 6-8" per hour at that point....we had close to 7" in that one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 what is the obsession with school cancellation? i the ne thread? i thought that was more ma nyc phl thread stuff Well, idk. Our entire love of snowfall started being a kid in school and that awesome feeling of having it canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was more like 6-8" per hour at that point....we had close to 7" in that one hour. Were you in ORH for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well nrn stream systems tend to do that. Sometimes the models don't catch onto this until about 36 hrs out. When all the energy comes into the US, models seem to strength the nrn stream on their solutions...perhaps because of balloon coverage. Combine that, and the srn stream shortwave dancing around very close in proximity..trying to phase, and you get a nw trend. It also seems like the models are finally bring the low closer to the best PVA. It was quite displace on yesterday's runs. Looking at critical thicknesses, it seems mostly snow for you as of now. Jackpot on the NAM seems from near central CT ene through ORH and BOS..perhaps 30 miles either side..esp to the north. Thanks Scott. How extensive is the balloon coverage in central and south central Canada and throughout the rockies...anyone know? It really seems that in this case it's the rockies system causing the change. As you and WIll noted there's a definite change in the handling of the energy coming out of the rockies with enough of a focus now to help amplify the whole thing. You can clearly see that in this animation showing the 0z 12h versus 12z init. If the rest of the models bounce NW now it'd be interesting to see how the NCEP models handled those two features versus say the Euro which didn't make as harsh a move. The coverage theory would partially explain why we trend one way before snapping back - may be that as it falls away from a sampling site we lose the signature before it hits a coverage area and pops back. When you look at the NAM 12h 0z vs 12z 0h the biggest change is the system out of the rockies. That I think sets the stage for everything else by helping to amplify things right away which in turn helps to draw the northern stream south. (look at Missouri on the first panel, just WSW in the 2nd...the shift sw is the new run and notice it increases heights as a result in advance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I guess our internal snow algorithm for the NAM had a spot 11" for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was more like 6-8" per hour at that point....we had close to 7" in that one hour. That kind of thing would make the Sierras blush. Incredible. Do you recall any thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know about everyone else but in general it seems that the frequency of Will posts is directly related to the amount of snow I get. There's been a marked increase in his posts over the last 5 hours so clearly this storms has some serious juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Someone post the NAM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this would be A big bump from the 2-4 forcasted yesterday. School might get cancelled!!!!! You have to admire the number of mets, like Joe L, who kept forecasting a decent storm despite model output. Why was that? pattern recognition? seasonal trends? bum luck? Sam might be right in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 what is the obsession with school cancellation? i the ne thread? i thought that was more ma nyc phl thread stuff Well my entire memory of 12/23/97 is going to school with a 1-3 inch forecast (and it really was a 1-3 inch forecast), having early dismissal and a 1 1/2 hour bus ride because we kept getting stuck in some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Were you in ORH for that? Yes. It was amazing. 18" total and most of it fell in 4 hours. The whole storm was done by noontime and it started around 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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