Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Phil text...he is worried about some rain down on the cape. Phill hopefully this will draw you back to posting with us His snow forecast is up on his site http://capecodweather.net/maps-and-charts-archives/1465-snowfall-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hate to say it but, I hope it is............ I'll kill your family. Slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll kill your family. Slowly. Some have to lose for others to win......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1) Look past the models 2) Seasonal trends of northern stream systems amplifying to max potential 3) No to little blocking meant should come NW 4) -8 c isotherm is always an area where big snows fall even when not modelled 5) Nina yrs storms always come NW the last 36 hrs Thanks I appreciate your humor, but am realizing you know more than you let on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the key is what Will pointed out. It's taking some of the southern stream energy to help amplify it. Compare 00z and 12z at hr 18 and hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im really liking this trend! can we bring the 5-10 into conn No. I've used science to distill a few simple truth facts about the approaching storm: 1.) Boston gets everything B.) Other people will get slightly less III.) You get nothing For.) Good day sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's why we look less at the models and more at what is actually going on at this time range. Posting five times a day on how bad the model is, trashing and bashing, then even denying you're doing it is pretty weird. It hasn't produced a stable run since h84. That's pretty hard to deny, and fairly unusual even for the NAM. On the same token, the SREF's have made huge swings, and even the Euro has been jumping. But to say the NAM has been totally inconsistent in the handling of the low going from almost a total miss 18 hours ago to a whopping hit...call it whatever you want. The models that had a consistent .3 to .45 in the area like the Euro did much better up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam's qpf for most of Central Maine is not the best, .25" more as you head Downeast and in NE Maine...... Don't worry, I think we will end up with about .5 QPF. One thing I don't understand is why the NAM has that lull over Maine, but southwest and northeast it ramps up. Should fill that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its amazing how the northern stream keeps trending stronger each storm at the last minute. I was starting to doubt that trend yesterday even though I was the one who had pointed it out for the previous storms this winter....but it seems to be going that direction again. Its all about the northern stream having more defined vortmax and able to dig a little more. Yes, I think we have a clear trend this winter to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 His snow forecast is up on his site Looks reasonable. As long as the NW trend stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the key is what Will pointed out. It's taking some of the southern stream energy to help amplify it. Compare 00z and 12z at hr 18 and hr 30. Quite clear at H5 that it helps out........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 No. I've used science to distill a few simple truth facts about the approaching storm: 1.) Boston gets everything B.) Other people will get slightly less III.) You get nothing For.) Good day sir. Arent you the guy that just threatened to kill someones family? I rather wait for someone elses answer. Troll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks reasonable. As long as the NW trend stops continues fixed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If that NAM qpf verified verbatim(which it probably won't) with the fluff factor there would be some 16 inch amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 fixed.. The Cape is the new benchmark, it's kinda sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Every model has been inconsistent with this...I don't care if it's the euro, gfs, jma...every one..not just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think cancellations look likely for eastern sne.. should be an interesting drive home friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Heh,heh,heh. CoT FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Arent you the guy that just threatened to kill someones family? I rather wait for someone elses answer. Troll! I didn't threaten anyone! There's a difference between a threat and a promise. Anyhow, if the 12z NAM is on to something, you may well see 5" in CT (even if it's overdoing the QPF a bit; ratios should be a nudge generous for many places). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Every model has been inconsistent with this...I don't care if it's the euro, gfs, jma...every one..not just the NAM. Yeah they have all been pretty bad at handling this. Euro was probably most consistent, but even then, it had like barely 0.20" of qpf a couple runs ago to go with a putrid looking upper air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If that NAM qpf verified verbatim(which it probably won't) with the fluff factor there would be some 16 inch amts I think this is moving way too fast for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks reasonable. As long as the NW trend stops. Yeah, not sure about the time stamp, says 1pm today must be off from the time zones/UTC. I'm thinking that was from pre-NAM. Face value it would rain quite a bit down here and if carried throughout the rest of the models who's to say it's not done going NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The Cape is the new benchmark, it's kinda sickening. Lack of blocking certainly does not help the cause down your way and out to the cape........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Some have to lose for others to win......... Downeast looks to get smoked. Liking where we sit for possible warning snow. Will keep the 3 or 4" prediction for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This stuff, all you'll have to do is sneeze to clear the driveway You are young Sam....you shouldn't have backed off. You had a clear feeling about this storm. You're first guess might be close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 fixed.. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think this is moving way too fast for that. Agree. I think a lolli of 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Downeast looks to get smoked. Liking where we sit for possible warning snow. Will keep the 3 or 4" prediction for now I think 4-8 is a good bet right now, looks good. More than a 15-1 ratio too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Every model has been inconsistent with this...I don't care if it's the euro, gfs, jma...every one..not just the NAM. What's the theory on why at this point? It seems to be getting worse not better. Would agree with Will though that the Euro has essentially been at least an advisory even for the last day or so. And it ramped up considerably at 0z. Watch it go out to sea this run RGEM has been pretty darn consistent, it insisted on a track further west than every other model FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think this is moving way too fast for that. 12/23/97 is coming for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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