HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone doubting 6-12 now??? Do you really think someone will report 12" (well, BDL of course)? I guess Pete and Sam might be getting huge ratios but will they be too faw NW for enough qpf? My (very basic) thoughts tell me widespread 4-8", maybe a couple 10" if they get really fluffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 AWT seasonal trend ftw Its amazing how the northern stream keeps trending stronger each storm at the last minute. I was starting to doubt that trend yesterday even though I was the one who had pointed it out for the previous storms this winter....but it seems to be going that direction again. Its all about the northern stream having more defined vortmax and able to dig a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For whom? All of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Phil text...he is worried about some rain down on the cape. Phill hopefully this will draw you back to posting with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Got to load boxes face value nam is a few inches here then rain. Looks like 5.9 to 12.1 everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its amazing how the northern stream keeps trending stronger each storm at the last minute. I was starting to doubt that trend yesterday even though I was the one who had pointed it out for the previous storms this winter....but it seems to be going that direction again. Its all about the northern stream having more defined vortmax and able to dig a little more. Kudos to you, sir. I believe it was you who specifically pointed out the potential for this one if it managed to squeak out just S of Long Island... The NAM seems to very much agree with you on its latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow..12Z NAM is a huge NW shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Do you really think someone will report 12" (well, BDL of course)? I guess Pete and Sam might be getting huge ratios but will they be too faw NW for enough qpf? My (very basic) thoughts tell me widespread 4-8", maybe a couple 10" if they get really fluffed. Yes and i think the max amts will be 13-14 inches.... I was very confident this was going to happen .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Woo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Woo!! At 30... it's a boom-boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is pretty impressive even if its overdone by 30-40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes and i think the max amts will be 13-14 inches.... I was very confident this was going to happen .. Nice You have been very consistent with this for 2+ days. Could you explain what you saw 2 days ago when the models were puking on their shoes? General NW trend of everything these last few storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam's qpf for most of Central Maine is not the best, .25" more as you head Downeast and in NE Maine...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes and i think the max amts will be 13-14 inches.... I was very confident this was going to happen .. Holy smokes. 6-12.. 8-12.. 13-14.. WOW.. will we hit 20 by tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 WSW for all of SNE with the 4 pm package..possibly sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This isn't bashing, but the lack of continuity run to run is staggering with such a short lead time. That's why we look less at the models and more at what is actually going on at this time range. Posting five times a day on how bad the model is, trashing and bashing, then even denying you're doing it is pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Shift of almost 100 miles west from 0Z to 12Z... how many times have we seen that this season!! Agree with messenger, this is a surprise for the ETA's 48hr time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 WSW for all of SNE with the 4 pm package..possibly sooner Unless the GFS shows similar QPF, I imagine it'll be 4 PM and no sooner. If the GFS and ensemble members sing a chorus of what we just saw on the NAM at 12z, that's the only way I could see it being earlier. What did the overnight Euro look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its amazing how the northern stream keeps trending stronger each storm at the last minute. I was starting to doubt that trend yesterday even though I was the one who had pointed it out for the previous storms this winter....but it seems to be going that direction again. Its all about the northern stream having more defined vortmax and able to dig a little more. It took until we were 24-30 hours out instead of about 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Unless the GFS shows similar QPF, I imagine it'll be 4 PM and no sooner. If the GFS and ensemble members sing a chorus of what we just saw on the NAM at 12z, that's the only way I could see it being earlier. What did the overnight Euro look like? close to 0.50 for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Unless the GFS shows similar QPF, I imagine it'll be 4 PM and no sooner. If the GFS and ensemble members sing a chorus of what we just saw on the NAM at 12z, that's the only way I could see it being earlier. What did the overnight Euro look like? It was a decent hit for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It should probably be pointed out that a little more of the southern stream energy gets absorbed into this compared to come of the rafter solutions. Sort of interconnected with the N stream digging a bit more. Its a nice positive feedback for this system. I think its very encouraging that its been over performing out in the plains and midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This stuff, all you'll have to do is sneeze to clear the driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice You have been very consistent with this for 2+ days. Could you explain what you saw 2 days ago when the models were puking on their shoes? General NW trend of everything these last few storms? 1) Look past the models 2) Seasonal trends of northern stream systems amplifying to max potential 3) No to little blocking meant should come NW 4) -8 c isotherm is always an area where big snows fall even when not modelled 5) Nina yrs storms always come NW the last 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This stuff, all you'll have to do is sneeze to clear the driveway Leaf blower.......ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local boston tv mets starting to jump on the bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I'm gonna wait at least until I see the GFS...but looking like the trend may win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hopefully it's not rain for BOS by 18z..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im really liking this trend! can we bring the 5-10 into conn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hopefully it's not rain for BOS by 18z..lol. Hate to say it but, I hope it is............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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