snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 First time I break double digits below zero ?since Jan 85? Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around -8. Holy cold Rev What about 1/16-17/2009? Many places even down to the shore were in double digits below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If I get 10" or better, Kev gets some Smithwicks from me at the next gtg. 1 beer per inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I know people said .5+ for Downeast ME, but what did the Euro have for the Portland, ME area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LALALALALALALalock up the higher amounts folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 again I hear the eastern drums,and yet again will the deformation band set up in connecticut? lets look at what might really happen. any potential screw zones like eastern CT/RI? or is this one going to be a different animal all together.If you ask me ill take it looking like its going for easten new england as long as i can get under any trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1 beer per inch of my weenie? Yeah 2-3 beers should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 again I hear the eastern drums,and yet again will the deformation band set up in connecticut? lets look at what might really happen. any potential screw zones like eastern CT/RI? or is this one going to be a different animal all together.If you ask me ill take it looking like its going for easten new england as long as i can get under any trough. I gotta look a little more closely...by this one looks fairly uniform in coverage...just a bit more in eastern areas. Was thinking 3-6" statewide...but could easily be 4-8" if 12z suite holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah 2-3 beers should do. A nice chuckle before I play tennis. I'd rather be snowshoeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I gotta look a little more closely...by this one looks fairly uniform in coverage...just a bit more in eastern areas. Was thinking 3-6" statewide...but could easily be 4-8" if 12z suite holds. It would ber nice to see a uniform snow event for once. no troughs ,no snow holes please.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What I don't understand is models bring the storm closer as well as the QPF amounts are higher .50 inch into southern Nh. But all the tv mets have brought the accumulation amounts down in southern Nh?? why is this? With high ratios I would think it would at least be 3-7"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LALALALALALALalock up the higher amounts folks Listened to a morning forecast out of Alb. The Met (has a good track record) was calling for 4-8" for the Berks and said "we'll have to watch this one for surprises Espcecially east of Alb". Bump up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What I don't understand is models bring the storm closer as well as the QPF amounts are higher .50 inch into southern Nh. But all the tv mets have brought the accumulation amounts down in southern Nh?? why is this? With high ratios I would think it would at least be 3-7"!! I know, but don't worry, if today goes the way it is, we should see all of these get raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As expected the NW trend kicks in at the eleventh hour and advisories are hoisted. General 3-6" forecast here from BOX at this time and, based on current trends I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a few more tacked on. Hey Messenger!!! what happened to all guidance pointing to a SE trend? Pattern recognition. Funny how jaded everyone is getting poo-pooing advisory level events.lol Good week so far here on the East slope, 6.75" Tuesday, 2.5" Wednesday, another 6" possible tonight then into the ice box with double digit negatives. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Every piece of guidance was going se for days pete, don't pretend it didn't happen. You have a way of selecting comments out of context. I said a bunch of times the witching hour for models started around 36-42 hours and that it'd be the 0z run last night where it'd begin to matter as the southern s/w cleared the rockies and the northern s/w crossed the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Read and enjoy. No use bickering and complaining about what was discussed/debated in the past couple days. It's going to snow. Once again I have proven my worth with these juju threads. La Epic! .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...AT LEAST A PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT LIKELY FOR SNE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE SE US. COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID ATLC COAST IN RESPONSE TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM JET THEN MOVE NE. THE CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND HOW QUICK DEEPNING OCCURS. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT SNOW ACCUM FORECAST. 00Z GFS/NAM/GGEM/UKMET WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW TRACK NEAR THE BENCHMARK FRI MORNING WITH MOST RAPID DEEPENING AFTER THE STORM PASSES NEW ENG. THE RESULT WAS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE TRENDED NW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW NEAR NANTUCKET. QUICKER PHASING HAS ALLOWED A MORE NEG TILT TROF AND RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT CROSSES OUR LATITUDE. THERE WAS ALSO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WE ARE NOT READY TO COMPLETELY JUMP ON THE NAM AS THIS STILL REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 850/700 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DURATION OF HEAVY BANDED SNOW HOWEVER...THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AROUND 12Z WITH EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH OMEGA AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING -EPV ABOVE MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY THEN QUIKLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS REST OF SNE. WE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVSY FOR ALL BUT S NH FOR GENERAL ACCUM 3-6". HEAVIEST QPF EXPECTED SE NEW ENG BUT HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR WILL MAKE UP FOR LESS QPF. HOWEVER...THIS STORM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR TO CAPE COD GIVEN 06Z NAM TREND AND ALSO 03Z SREF WHICH ALSO INCREASED QPF AND SHOWED DRAMATIC INCREASE IN PROBS FOR 4" NEAR THE S COAST AND EVEN A LOW PROB FOR 8". A FURTHER NW TRACK WOULD ALSO INTRODUCE PTYPE ISSUES OVER ACK AND OUTER CAPE WITH A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN FRI MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE TREND BEFORE THIS WAS FOR DECREASING QPF AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK WE WERE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING. WE WILL LET NEXT SHIFT VIEW 12Z GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF THIS TREND IS FOR REAL. THIS STORM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXITING BY LATE FRI MORNING OR MIDDAY WITH CLEARING LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Read and enjoy. No use bickering and complaining about what was discussed/debated in the past couple days. It's going to snow. Once again I have proven my worth with these juju threads. La Epic! You should be starting to fire up the Karma bus for next weds.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 You should be starting to fire up the Karma bus for next weds.......... I'm working on it. Gotta wait till Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 St Louis got 9 inches with .51 qpf..ours will be even fluffier..US FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Read and enjoy. No use bickering and complaining about what was discussed/debated in the past couple days. It's going to snow. Once again I have proven my worth with these juju threads. La Epic! If this trend sticks they should raise warnings. I can't blame them for not doing it yet in light of everything going the wrong way pre 0z in American guidance. Subjectively the euro never wavered from advisory snows and the rgem has been on the cusp of warning snows although the 6z backed down some. Agree with will on the snow bomb threat. Will feel better in an hour or two if the trend holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You should be starting to fire up the Karma bus for next weds.......... Hey, what did the Euro have for Portland area? I know it was .5+ for downeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey, what did the Euro have for Portland area? I know it was .5+ for downeast. .50" Portland and here, .75" Downeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 again I hear the eastern drums,and yet again will the deformation band set up in connecticut? lets look at what might really happen. any potential screw zones like eastern CT/RI? or is this one going to be a different animal all together.If you ask me ill take it looking like its going for easten new england as long as i can get under any trough. There isn't really a typical deformation band unless this winds up a lot more...only really place that might see one is extreme coastal MA like CC...perhaps up toward Boston and NE MA and SE NH and finally into downeast ME. That doesn't mean there can't be a some little mesoscale bands to the west, but this does not have a true mature CCB like the Jan 12 blizzard did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As we all have been thinking for the past several days without wavering, a solid advisory or lower-end warning event coming to SNE. congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .50" Portland and here, .75" Downeast So 5-10 inches..maybe more depending on fluff factor..wow. Taunton talks about the shift in the models and upping amounts, but GYX doesn't. Once again..I bet they will at 2:45 pm today or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 St Louis got 9 inches with .51 qpf..ours will be even fluffier..US FTW It's possible Kev. It was the 00z NAM, 00z GFS Ensm and 00z Euro/Ensm. that jumped to the west of guidance. The 06z NAM continued that along with the 06z GFS and Ensm. I said this yesterday. If 0.5" QPF becomes a reality than we may see higher totals. Hoping the 12z suite holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As we all have been thinking for the past several days without wavering, a solid advisory or lower-end warning event coming to SNE. congrats Our friend for most of the winter has been the NW trend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wfxt in boston has changed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Every piece of guidance was going se for days pete, don't pretend it didn't happen. You have a way of selecting comments out of context. I said a bunch of times the witching hour for models started around 36-42 hours and that it'd be the 0z run last night where it'd begin to matter as the southern s/w cleared the rockies and the northern s/w crossed the border. Lol Scott, don't get bent out of shape, I'm just messin'. I said the NW trend was inevitable and you said I was ignoring the clear SE trend. I wasn't. I was just counting on the windshield wiper effect that seems to be in effect this year. SE,SE,SE, NW,NW,NW.....HIT! Man,it's windy here on top of the mountain today. Tough to push. All these little buttons. Enjoy the snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As we all have been thinking for the past several days without wavering, a solid advisory or lower-end warning event coming to SNE. congrats You must not have been here last night for the 21z SREFs. Serious wrist-slashing and teeth-gnashing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CAR not playing around ... issued WSW for downeast sections. Here's a local map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GENTLEMEN. THE WIND IS WITH US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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