tmagan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why? it isn't as if the speed of the system isn't a factor in QPF model output. That, and the fact the storm is forecasted to deepen just as it moves by means, in my opinion that the highest QPF forecasted by the NAM will be sort of like threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM 18 hr forecast...I like what I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Places in NW CT and SE NY and NW NJ will likely be hit by the initial WAA from the upper trough and the coastal low while as of now most of the Upton FA outside of maybe Orange county overall will probably miss the WAA precip, that could ultimately make a big difference between alot of 5 inch amounts and 7s. Although, to be fair, there's also an extra ~500 ft of elevation or so, on average, when you get north of New Milford. That's probably good for another inch or two. (In general, measurements at my parents' place at ~1100ft in Warren run 10-20% above the reports down in the valleys in New Milford, Cornwall, etc... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At least 10mm on the 18z RGEM for NYC and LI and eastern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's still somewhat early..but it's RUC time. 12 hr RUC simulated radar suggests it's really trying to tug this northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's still somewhat early..but it's RUC time. 12 hr RUC simulated radar suggests it's really trying to tug this northwest. The ruc also put me under a superband for last week's storm but obviously that didn't happen. I think it has a tendency to be too far north and/or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RGEM is overlooked by people. I follow it closely and its one of, if not, the best model inside of 24 hours. Deadly inside of 12 hours. Its showing .40" for NYC and eastern Jersey and about .50" for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The ruc also put me under a superband for last week's storm but obviously that didn't happen. I think it has a tendency to be too far north and/or west. It is, especially deeper in its range, its usually okay inside 6-8 hours more...I followed it in the Plains and MW yesterday and it showed the heavy snow well too far north in many cases beyond 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Goes in line with a solid 3-6" snowstorm across the tristate, except mixing in SE jersey coast (sorry stephen turner) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Goes in line with a solid 3-6" snowstorm across the tristate, except mixing in SE jersey coast (sorry stephen turner) I wonder if that means Upton will increase their totals as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wonder if that means Upton will increase their totals as well I'd be surprised if they dont up them about 3/4 to maybe an inch an quarter all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like a nice moderate snowfall that will be enough to make for a messy rush hour tomorrow morning. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Goes in line with a solid 3-6" snowstorm across the tristate, except mixing in SE jersey coast (sorry stephen turner) i dont live in the south! Steven Dimartino predicted 4-8+" so it's all good with me...all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt. Holly chopped my totals by .2 inches! I'm jumping ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt. Holly chopped my totals by .2 inches! I'm jumping ship. They upped my areas totals, should I jump on the ship? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt. Holly chopped my totals by .2 inches! I'm jumping ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18Z RGEM total snowfall through hour 54 and yes the 18Z RGEM does go out to hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They upped my areas totals, should I jump on the ship? I could go spend the night in my as of now unfurnished apartment in Lyndhurst just so I get an extra inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I could go spend the night in my as of now unfurnished apartment in Lyndhurst just so I get an extra inch of snow. GFS nudged north with the precip southern cutoff and now has .25"+ from TTN on north. 3-5" looking good for the region with the possible exception of extreme coastal locations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd be careful forecasting higher amounts near the coast and closer to the high QPF. I think the higher amounts are going to come out of Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York or Connecticut. The ratios are cut down dramatically near the coast on the BUFKIT soundings and with good reason. There's a very small but effective warm layer around 925mb on all of the forecast soundings that runs along the Jersey Shore to about the Southeast end of Monmouth County and the re-appears over the Southeast shore of Long Island. The snow growth and omega is lined up much better over NJ, SE NY, and CT..and most of those areas have very favorable dendritic growth. I think that's where we're going to see the higher amounts despite the lower QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd be careful forecasting higher amounts near the coast and closer to the high QPF. I think the higher amounts are going to come out of Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York or Connecticut. The ratios are cut down dramatically near the coast on the BUFKIT soundings and with good reason. There's a very small but effective warm layer around 925mb on all of the forecast soundings that runs along the Jersey Shore to about the Southeast end of Monmouth County and the re-appears over the Southeast shore of Long Island. The snow growth and omega is lined up much better over NJ, SE NY, and CT..and most of those areas have very favorable dendritic growth. I think that's where we're going to see the higher amounts despite the lower QPF. From the way you described the warm layer I assume NYC is not affected by it? Isn't the Jersey shore going to have less precip anyway? The places where I would be worries would be the east end of Long Island but they always manage to just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 From the way you described the warm layer I assume NYC is not affected by it? Isn't the Jersey shore going to have less precip anyway? The places where I would be worries would be the east end of Long Island but they always manage to just fine. It doesn't get near New York City, at least not on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 From the way you described the warm layer I assume NYC is not affected by it? Isn't the Jersey shore going to have less precip anyway? The places where I would be worries would be the east end of Long Island but they always manage to just fine. Yup....Especially this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z GFS basically has most of Suffolk County affected by the warm nose..which translates to the surface and could create come problems. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z GFS basically has most of Suffolk County affected by the warm nose..which translates to the surface and could create come problems. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's the 925mb progression on the NAM. Is this especially concerning? No..but it's something to watch and reason to keep the higher totals away from the coast and the higher QPF. The 0c line runs along the NJ Coast as I posted above..and then moves northeast over Suffolk County. I would be obliged to forecast higher totals north and west with better snow growth and a more supportive temp column. Courtesy to SV on these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yup....Especially this year.... This has not really been an eastern LI year. Jackpot totals are west of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z GFS basically has most of Suffolk County affected by the warm nose..which translates to the surface and could create come problems. We shall see. Warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Warm nose? He means a thin layer of warm air at a specific height in the atmosphere. In this case it looks like 925mb at least based on the posted map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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