tmagan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As I said previously, because of the fast movement of the system, the course of least regret is to take 80% of consensus QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week storm has its own thread, and i cant believe the word historic is being thrown around already. Anyway, does anyone think we might get watches or warnings? there is a potential for 6" imo I do. I would put the likelihood at roughly 1 chance in 3. NWS Albany is calling for 4-8" for its southern zones, partly due to ratios in excess of 15:1. I think their WSW criteria is more stringent than counties bordering to the south. So not out of the question counties in NNJ, SENY, and SWCT go to warnings later this evening. But whether we are warned or advised doesn't change how much snow we will be getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.30 AND 0.50 INCHES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 20/12Z NAM...WHICH IS GIVING THE CWA AN AVERAGE OF 0.60 INCHES. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT A DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE DURING RUSH HOUR. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE A TOTAL AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't think the depiction is historic. Blizzard of 96, PDII, etc those are historic storms. This is 1-1.25" liquid with a 998mb surface low. Major? Yes. Awesome? Yes. Historic? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 First off, go to the other thread for this stuff. Second off, it is hardly historic. just responding to Eduggs....you can just click "report" on the side of my post and have the mods remove it if they deem it necess. otherwise, just keep it to yourself. thanx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't think the depiction is historic. Blizzard of 96, PDII, etc those are historic storms. This is 1-1.25" liquid with a 998mb surface low. Major? Yes. Awesome? Yes. Historic? No those are BIBLICAL storms...not HISTORIC. maybe we just have different meanings of it. but whatever, its pointless now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As I said previously, because of the fast movement of the system, the course of least regret is to take 80% of consensus QPF. Why? it isn't as if the speed of the system isn't a factor in QPF model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't think the depiction is historic. Blizzard of 96, PDII, etc those are historic storms. This is 1-1.25" liquid with a 998mb surface low. Major? Yes. Awesome? Yes. Historic? No yeah, it takes over 30 hours to get an inch of liquid, so its not like its going to be white out conditions. Its all silly talk anyway as this storm is in fantasy land and the euro is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think advisory is the way to go as well...trying to pinpoint ratios and exact QPF ratios for the very small chance that a majority of a zone verifies warning criteria is not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Look at h5. It does look quite historic. The surface maps do not do it justice. Not to me. I've been tracking for 15 years and comparatively these upper level charts do not register anywhere near the historic ones. Just a simple difference of opinion. That said, I am VERY encouraged by the Euro. Another major threat to track off in the distance with one right on our doorstep. Keep em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I do. I would put the likelihood at roughly 1 chance in 3. NWS Albany is calling for 4-8" for its southern zones, partly due to ratios in excess of 15:1. I think their WSW criteria is more stringent than counties bordering to the south. So not out of the question counties in NNJ, SENY, and SWCT go to warnings later this evening. But whether we are warned or advised doesn't change how much snow we will be getting. yeah agree, they mention 6" possible in isolated areas but there is not enough confidence in those numbers being widespread to issue warnings. Either way, 3-6" is a solid call and a solid snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 those are BIBLICAL storms...not HISTORIC. maybe we just have different meanings of it. but whatever, its pointless now. In all seriousness are you high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not to me. I've been tracking for 15 years and comparatively these upper level charts do not register anywhere near the historic ones. Just a simple difference of opinion. That said, I am VERY encouraged by the Euro. Another major threat to track off in the distance with one right on our doorstep. Keep em coming. agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agree, A winter storm warning will be overkill. Winter weather advisory is the right thing. Average QPF would equate to a 3"-6" type snowfall. If someone gets 7", its not a WSW criteria storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 those are BIBLICAL storms...not HISTORIC. maybe we just have different meanings of it. but whatever, its pointless now. Lol a biblical storm should be one which shuts down power for weeks, the likes of which we probably will never see again given modern day snow removal technology. The blizzard of 88 was biblical...people have been talking about it for years and years. Do you think people will be talking about a 30 hr storm during which it snowed moderately up and down the east coast? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS just re-issued winter weather advisories. litchield county under wsw for 5-10" new haven and fairfield wwa for 3-5" not very good collaboration between offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And thats what we all have, a WWA. Good decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agree, A winter storm warning will be overkill. Winter weather advisory is the right thing. Average QPF would equate to a 3"-6" type snowfall. If someone gets 7", its not a WSW criteria storm. Exactly, there is little potential for anyone to go over 6" so why issue the warnings? With most models showing snow lasting only about 5-7 hours this is definitely a solid snowstorm but an advisory one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In all seriousness are you high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In all seriousness are you high? i do vaporize herb for medicinal purposes, so yes quite often i am high....but thats neither here nor there. BECS HECS MECS 78, 93, 96 fall into BECS 12/26/10 and PDII fall into HECS . the way the euro shows next week, it looks very HECS to me. but whatever. its all good ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And thats what we all have, a WWA. Good decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 litchield county under wsw for 5-10" new haven and fairfield wwa for 3-5" not very good collaboration between offices models have the precip coming into the north part of CT earlier before the coastal takes over so they will see more precip. Not sure what collaboration has to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not to me. I've been tracking for 15 years and comparatively these upper level charts do not register anywhere near the historic ones. Just a simple difference of opinion. That said, I am VERY encouraged by the Euro. Another major threat to track off in the distance with one right on our doorstep. Keep em coming. Then we can agree to disagree, but alls I know is that second part you wrote there looks mighty fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lol a biblical storm should be one which shuts down power for weeks, the likes of which we probably will never see again given modern day snow removal technology. The blizzard of 88 was biblical...people have been talking about it for years and years. Do you think people will be talking about a 30 hr storm during which it snowed moderately up and down the east coast? Come on now. if a big section of the EC gets 15+++" then yes, i think it is. and last time i checked BECS or HECS had NOTHING to do with whether or not people talk about the storm for the next 30yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why? I dont get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i'm a jew, which means we use half the bible, and next week's storm on the euro doesn't even look half biblical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i'm a jew, which means we use half the bible, and next week's storm on the euro doesn't even look half biblical. ur right. funny too...doesnt look biblical at all. never said that it does though. and i dont think anyone said that either. so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With all that being said, Im sure all of would enjoy a good 30 hour snowstorm regardless of whether its a MECS or HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 models have the precip coming into the north part of CT earlier before the coastal takes over so they will see more precip. Not sure what collaboration has to do with it. Places in NW CT and SE NY and NW NJ will likely be hit by the initial WAA from the upper trough and the coastal low while as of now most of the Upton FA outside of maybe Orange county overall will probably miss the WAA precip, that could ultimately make a big difference between alot of 5 inch amounts and 7s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 models have the precip coming into the north part of CT earlier before the coastal takes over so they will see more precip. Not sure what collaboration has to do with it. if you wanna make smart comments you should really know what you are talking about.. the models include northern fairfield and northern new haven in that initial band that maybe gives one to two hours of extra snow (its not going to give litchfielf county 5 extra inches).. and 3-5" is a big difference from 5-10" when talking about southbury ct (new haven) and litchfield ct (litchfield). if you look at the qpf for litchfield county and northern new haven county they are exactly the same so get your facts straight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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