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NYC Jan 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


am19psu

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Through 9pm: A steady light snow will taper off and end by 5pm. Mostly cloudy with temperatures steady near 31F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. No significant snow accumulations through 8:30pm.

Weather.com for my location...wow..what the hell is that forecast even based off of??? I mean thats just embarrasing.

But they do show snow next week on their 10 day...

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I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week.

Really? Don't think so. His post said 0.5" to 0.75" qpf on the nam.

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I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week.

LOL, its not historic by any stretch. Major? perhaps, depending on ratios, but you can't be a major east coast storm and historic, one or the other.

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LOL, its not historic by any stretch. Major? perhaps, depending on ratios, but you can't be a major east coast storm and historic, one or the other.

Looks like with 850 temps tonight in the -4 to -6 range while the snow falls ratios should be decent in the 12-14:1 range?

.35 - .45 should equate to 4 - 6 inches...

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I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week.

Yup. 0.5 area wide is a reasonable interpretive estimate based on the NAM and SREFs.

I wouldn't call the Euro depiction for next week historic. I like the long duration signal. With one notable exception, positively tilted trofs with weak surface response aren't usually historic. But this one looks like it will be fun to track.

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Yup. 0.5 area wide is a reasonable interpretive estimate based on the NAM and SREFs.

I wouldn't call the Euro depiction for next week historic. I like the long duration signal. With one notable exception, positively tilted trofs with weak surface response aren't usually historic. But this one looks like it will be fun to track.

its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that.

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its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that.

Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm.

I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic.

This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm.

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Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm.

I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic.

This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm.

not sure why you never like to admit that you are wrong.

im not gonna discuss this further cuz its silly really.....but a 24hr+++ duration event that could affect the major cities from DC to Boston with the euro qpf of 1-1.5 is pretty HISTORIC.

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Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm.

I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic.

This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm.

Look at h5. It does look quite historic. The surface maps do not do it justice.

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Guest stormchaser

its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that.

First off, go to the other thread for this stuff. Second off, it is hardly historic.

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