TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 When does the latest american wrf come out? The latest one posted still says it initialized at midnight. It only runs once a day, but I heard if you donate $$ they will give you a private showing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It only runs once a day, but I heard if you donate $$ they will give you a private showing at 12z. That sounds tempting. I'd enjoy some private time with a model. 32 F 13 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 New SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .5 over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Individual SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM seems a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM looks like .50 - .75 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM looks like .50 - .75 area wide. i think you mean .25 to .50 area wide. Boston does very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM looks like .50 - .75 area wide. Less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice hit on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM looks like it has a line of .5"+ over W/ C LI maybe touching BK/QUEENS and coastal NJ. .25-.5" everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam brings down qpf for nj NYC from it's last run. Now inagreement with other models. Should be a 3-5" event goOd job nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Through 9pm: A steady light snow will taper off and end by 5pm. Mostly cloudy with temperatures steady near 31F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. No significant snow accumulations through 8:30pm. Weather.com for my location...wow..what the hell is that forecast even based off of??? I mean thats just embarrasing. But they do show snow next week on their 10 day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam brings down qpf for nj NYC from it's last run. Now inagreement with other models. Should be a 3-5" event goOd job nws I think it would be wise to save the NWS congrats until after the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week. Really? Don't think so. His post said 0.5" to 0.75" qpf on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week. LOL, its not historic by any stretch. Major? perhaps, depending on ratios, but you can't be a major east coast storm and historic, one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL, its not historic by any stretch. Major? perhaps, depending on ratios, but you can't be a major east coast storm and historic, one or the other. Looks like with 850 temps tonight in the -4 to -6 range while the snow falls ratios should be decent in the 12-14:1 range? .35 - .45 should equate to 4 - 6 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Less. oops.. yea, looked at it to fast... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really? Don't think so. His post said 0.5" to 0.75" qpf on the nam. I made a mistake. I looked at it too fast. It was .25 - .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think what he was trying to say is that despite the fact that the area only shows 0.25-0.5" QPF, the totals were much closer to 0.5 than 0.25". BTW, off topic but if anyone here hasn't heard yet, 12z EC came in with an historic MECS next week. Yup. 0.5 area wide is a reasonable interpretive estimate based on the NAM and SREFs. I wouldn't call the Euro depiction for next week historic. I like the long duration signal. With one notable exception, positively tilted trofs with weak surface response aren't usually historic. But this one looks like it will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yup. 0.5 area wide is a reasonable interpretive estimate based on the NAM and SREFs. I wouldn't call the Euro depiction for next week historic. I like the long duration signal. With one notable exception, positively tilted trofs with weak surface response aren't usually historic. But this one looks like it will be fun to track. its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week storm has its own thread, and i cant believe the word historic is being thrown around already. Anyway, does anyone think we might get watches or warnings? there is a potential for 6" imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week storm has its own thread, and i cant believe the word historic is being thrown around already. Anyway, does anyone think we might get watches or warnings? there is a potential for 6" imo High end advisory event is the safest call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that. Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm. I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic. This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm. I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic. This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm. not sure why you never like to admit that you are wrong. im not gonna discuss this further cuz its silly really.....but a 24hr+++ duration event that could affect the major cities from DC to Boston with the euro qpf of 1-1.5 is pretty HISTORIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week storm has its own thread, and i cant believe the word historic is being thrown around already. Anyway, does anyone think we might get watches or warnings? there is a potential for 6" imo NWS just re-issued winter weather advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Light to moderate intensity snows over a long duration with winds light or breezy and little or no ice does not make for an historic storm. I've seen dozens of Euro runs show 2 - 3" liquid with gale force winds. That's historic. This is just the depiction of a major metropolitan snowstorm. Look at h5. It does look quite historic. The surface maps do not do it justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its DEPICTION at the moment does equate to historic. not sure why you dont see that. First off, go to the other thread for this stuff. Second off, it is hardly historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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