snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just a little bit more QPF and we could get to low end warning criteria snows. Right now we're in an advisory for 3-4" but maybe 5-6" isn't out of the question with 6" meeting warning levels. The meeting criteria part doesn't apply to just a single point within a forecast zone. Six inches would need to be the average across the forecast zone, or at least a significant portion of a forecast zone receiving six inches. If 95% of a forecast zone recieves 4 or 5 inches and one particular town gets 8 inches, it's still a good forecast to not issue the warning. In other words, as it has been explained to me by NWS mets, those localized high amounts don't really count for anything with regard to verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The american wrf is showing a sweet little storm coming together. Loop the images to see the development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lots of 1/2 mile visibilities in southern Ohio and the forecast discussion out there mentions a deep layer of lift intersecting a favorable snow growth region. I don't have cross sections in front of me but I think this should translate eastward. Moderate to high probability of 4" I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yep... people will be ready.. except for a couple of buddies of mine who I told yesterday that we'd get an inch or two at best.. This kind of dilemma only seems to happen to people who are really knowledgeable and plugged in about the weather. I decided a long time ago to profess ignorance when asked by friends or colleagues about a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That deform band which shows up on the NAM and the high res models over eastern sections of NJ should be a red flag for everyone to indicate that the GFS is likely underdone on QPF and underestimating dynamics thanks to its lower resolution. Honestly, we have seen plenty of warnings issued with 4-8" totals forecasted and this event fits the bill. I'm finding it harder and harder to rule out a 0.75" total. Give NJ between 0.5 and 0.75, with ratios in the lower teens, and enhancement thanks to eleveation and you could easily approach 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 worth taking a look at http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4151/NOWCASTING...RADAR-&-MODELS-DO-NOT-MATCH-UP...CHANGES-ON-THE-FLY-RIGHT-NOW- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Take a look at the moisture being drawn up near Houston...this definitly has a Gult connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 worth taking a look at http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4151/NOWCASTING...RADAR-&-MODELS-DO-NOT-MATCH-UP...CHANGES-ON-THE-FLY-RIGHT-NOW- You can always count on the intellicast weenie-dar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Take a look at the moisture being drawn up near Houston...this definitly has a Gult connection. So that would indicate that the total QPF output could be understated since that's not being taken into account by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nowcasting, under-modeled moisture connection to the gulf, some areas reporting heavier snow than they were supposed to get....yup, classic low end winter storm weenie-isms coming out in full force today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL, just like if the radar didn't look that impressive people start calling for a bust 8 hours even before the snow is scheduled to start nowcasting, under-modeled moisture connection to the gulf, some areas reporting heavier snow than they were supposed to get....yup, classic low end winter storm weenie-isms coming out in full force today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea some amazing stuff...close to 50" and its still Jan. big one next week COULD put this year in reach of winter 95/96 in some parts in NJ. its also nice to get snows during the daytime finally. if my Jetta GLI cant make it up the hill tomorrow, work looks like a long shot! What year is the GLI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So that would indicate that the total QPF output could be understated since that's not being taken into account by the models? This is doubtful. Models appear reasonable as is. Gulf moisture connection to our region appears minimal. Precipitable water is modest. At issue is the intensity of lift, and to a lesser degree its duration. That's how we get more snow out of this. Strong lift, slightly longer duration, good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wan't attempting to indicate that the models are underforecasting QPF...just simply pointing out that this sytem should have good moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is doubtful. Models appear reasonable as is. Gulf moisture connection to our region appears minimal. Precipitable water is modest. At issue is the intensity of lift, and to a lesser degree its duration. That's how we get more snow out of this. Strong lift, slightly longer duration, good ratios. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 halo around the sun right now! classic snow storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 halo around the sun right now! classic snow storm signal Is that really true, I have heard of that before but I wasn't sure if if was true or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is that really true, I have heard of that before but I wasn't sure if if was true or not. "Halo Around the Sun or Moon, Rain or Snow is Coming Soon..." never fails for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is that really true, I have heard of that before but I wasn't sure if if was true or not. Looks like the true arctic air finally moved in...dewpoints have dropped significantly over the past couple hours. Now in mid to upper teens for most, with temps right around freezing. Should be good temps tonight for the snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is that really true, I have heard of that before but I wasn't sure if if was true or not. I thought it was halo around the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 24 hrs the euro is .25+ for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 30 storm over.... .25+ from ttn-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I thought it was halo around the moon. either or. It has something to due with ice crystals. Its always a good sign IMHO. Sounds like the euro is still good for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 either or. It has something to due with ice crystals. Its always a good sign IMHO. Sounds like the euro is still good for the area. This thing really trended north over the past 36 hours. Originally heaviest precip axis was near Delmarva/S NJ/M-D line, now it looks to be from N NJ/NY State border NE up to Boston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone have 12z Euro qpf for NYC & White Plains? Much appreciated. .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 "Halo Around the Sun or Moon, Rain or Snow is Coming Soon..." never fails for me. either or. It has something to due with ice crystals. Its always a good sign IMHO.Sounds like the euro is still good for the area. Yup. I always look for it around the sun if it is a nighttime/overnight storm the late afternoon before the snow is forecasted and it never ever fails. On top of that it has become part of the enjoyment of a snowstorm for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .25+ Any idea how that compares to last night's ooz Euro run? I believe it had NYC at 0.33". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Any idea how that compares to last night's ooz Euro run? I believe it had NYC at 0.33". everything is pretty much similiar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This kind of dilemma only seems to happen to people who are really knowledgeable and plugged in about the weather. I decided a long time ago to profess ignorance when asked by friends or colleagues about a forecast. Yea...nobody even knows I follow a weather board haha...except my girlfriend who recently found out and thinks it is...interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The high resolution models are probably the best bet right now rather than the globals considering we're near nowcasting mode, though it looks as if the Euro held serve for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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