meteorjosh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm jealous of everyone talking about adding to their snowpack, NYC is in need of a new snow pack, the last 2 days made things ugly and patchy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GGEM is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MM5, about .35"-.40" for NYC Elevated areas north and west would probably do pretty well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GGEM is more amplified. At least 10mm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anybody know if the GFS ensembles came in wetter/stronger than the op? Would be a clear indication of excactly how much of an outlier the 12z GFS really is at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anybody know if the GFS ensembles came in wetter/stronger than the op? Would be a clear indication of excactly how much of an outlier the 12z GFS really is at this point. Will be out in less then 5 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At least 10mm for NYC. Yeah but aren't we supposed to halve this with the high resolution models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anybody know if the GFS ensembles came in wetter/stronger than the op? Would be a clear indication of excactly how much of an outlier the 12z GFS really is at this point. I don't think the GFS is an outlier? Seems to be pretty good consensus among the models. It's not like the NAM is showing 1" and the GFS .25. They are fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW at 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It seems like everytime we get some melting and I start to see grass, it's covered the next day. Either way we should be a lock to have at least 1" of snowpack for 1 month straight I'm jealous of everyone talking about adding to their snowpack, NYC is in need of a new snow pack, the last 2 days made things ugly and patchy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM at 21 HR ARW at 21 Hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW totals through 24. Snow is ending in NYC at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I would agree that the high-res models have been too wet so far this season but they are a good indicator of where the heaviest rates will showup. If they show 1"+ for a particular area you can pretty much lock up at least 0.5". Generally about half. I completely agree in principle. But I don't think we can lock up anything until we have 4" on the ground and the radar is lit up like a Xmas tree. Any way you slice it we're headed toward a quick hitting, moderate snowfall. I'm more confident in 6" of snow than .5 liquid. But I would bet on less than that for most if offered an over/under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM has .50" for earthlight and close to NYC. Bullseye on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM at 24 hrs and still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks at the bands that develop on the NMM northwest of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like another "earthlight deform band" truly incredible, what a winter for him last year and this year, somebody is certainly living right!! Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like another "earthlight deform band" truly incredible, what a winter for him last year and this year, somebody is certainly living right!! Congrats That includes me too since I'm in Roselle Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A reasonable snowfall forecast might be to use the ARW QPF with a 10 or 12:1 ratio. More precisely I'd knock off a tenth or two and then use an ave of 15:1 inland, 12:1 metro, and 10:1 far east, interpolating between. That would result in widespread 3-6" with minimum of 2" far east and south and isolated maximum of 8" NWNJ and surrounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 High res generally shows close to 0.5" across most of NJ with a nice band setting up closer to the coast. If I were in the Upton desk, I would be going with warnings at the afternoon update and If I was in Mt. Holly I would be upgrading to warnings for the northern third of the CWA. Even a general compromise of 0.35-0.4" with 13-1 ratios yields close to 5". Likely their will be higher amounts thanks to the higher terrain. Those 0.5-.0.75" spots NW are scary. Ratios should be even higher up their and they could easily end up with 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just a little bit more QPF and we could get to low end warning criteria snows. Right now we're in an advisory for 3-4" but maybe 5-6" isn't out of the question with 6" meeting warning levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Temps are dropping...down to 32 in garden city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM and ARW precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like another "earthlight deform band" truly incredible, what a winter for him last year and this year, somebody is certainly living right!! Congrats lol... hey John, didn't you already get a 30 inch storm back in December?? My total for the season is just getting to 30... I might need to use my prop plane to blow snowflakes northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like another "earthlight deform band" truly incredible, what a winter for him last year and this year, somebody is certainly living right!! Congrats **** HIM and his stupid magic ruler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like another "earthlight deform band" truly incredible, what a winter for him last year and this year, somebody is certainly living right!! Congrats Chances of that happening are very low but this winter has rocked so far ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't see any warnings at this point, think it could be a situation where they keep the advisories and then upgrade at the last minute if some places start getting close to the 6" mark Just a little bit more QPF and we could get to low end warning criteria snows. Right now we're in an advisory for 3-4" but maybe 5-6" isn't out of the question with 6" meeting warning levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 High res generally shows close to 0.5" across most of NJ with a nice band setting up closer to the coast. If I were in the Upton desk, I would be going with warnings at the afternoon update and If I was in Mt. Holly I would be upgrading to warnings for the northern third of the CWA. Even a general compromise of 0.35-0.4" with 13-1 ratios yields close to 5". Likely their will be higher amounts thanks to the higher terrain. Those 0.5-.0.75" spots NW are scary. Ratios should be even higher up their and they could easily end up with 6-12". This might technically meet their criteria, and will likely impact the morning commute, but I think I would hold off. This event falls squarely under the moderate heading even if a few isolated locations luck out 10" If warnings are issued for storms of this magnitude I think it becomes more difficult to distinguish between these and the much higher impact events that do not merit blizzard warnings. If models continue to look wet and upstream radar is impressive, you can upgrade this evening. People will be ready either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This might technically meet their criteria, and will likely impact the morning commute, but I think I would hold off. This event falls squarely under the moderate heading even if a few isolated locations luck out 10" If warnings are issued for storms of this magnitude I think it becomes more difficult to distinguish between these and the much higher impact events that do not merit blizzard warnings. If models continue to look wet and upstream radar is impressive, you can upgrade this evening. People will be ready either way. yep... people will be ready.. except for a couple of buddies of mine who I told yesterday that we'd get an inch or two at best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This might technically meet their criteria, and will likely impact the morning commute, but I think I would hold off. This event falls squarely under the moderate heading even if a few isolated locations luck out 10" If warnings are issued for storms of this magnitude I think it becomes more difficult to distinguish between these and the much higher impact events that do not merit blizzard warnings. If models continue to look wet and upstream radar is impressive, you can upgrade this evening. People will be ready either way. Agee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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