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NYC Jan 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


am19psu

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I think this is the closest you should get to non-snow..id say we end around 4" looking at radar...wow that was close, I live on the north side of town and that actually might make a difference between no mixing lol

would not be shock...im sure edison is doing better then holmdel........you where correct pretty much mod snow now here..

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The way its going we might end up with >6" up here..

Closing in on 5" now..

Hmm I was wondering why my amounts were higher even though I haven't seen the heaviest banding. Maybe the combination of elevation and a temperature of 23 degrees is helping.

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Some redevelopment evident on radar back into E PA....lots more still to come!

But that is mostly non-accumulating snowfall.

I had some doubts as well...though OKX has access to far more upper air charts than me.

Measured 1.7" of new snow in Port Jefferson @ 5:00 AM.

Problem is we really have no official weather obs. east of Shirley. Montauk doesn't report current obs.

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Even Montauk is 32F.

METAR KMTP 210954Z AUTO VRB04KT 00/M02 A2956 RMK AO2 SLP008 P0006 T00001017 PWINO FZRANO TSNO

The low is pretty close though - just E of Belmar, NJ:

http://climate.cod.e...ates/nj.sfc.gif

I had some doubts as well...though OKX has access to far more upper air charts than me.

Measured 1.7" of new snow in Port Jefferson @ 5:00 AM.

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Small fine flakes are probably 10:1 kind of ratios. You want to see dendrites and larger flakes before you know you're seeing high ratio snow.

Thats not necessarily true considering you can have small dry flakes w/ colder temps that accumulate at a good clip.Ratio friendly..quicker accums. Im not saying you need a microscope to see them. PD2 had small flakes and it was mostly powder.

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The OKX forecast for SE Suffolk is a huge mess...

Freezing rain - are you kidding me?

Overnight

Snow...sleet and freezing rain. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Additional ice accumulation around a trace. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Friday

Cloudy with freezing rain...rain with a chance of snow in the morning...then mostly sunny with a slight chance of snow in the afternoon.

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The OKX forecast for SE Suffolk is a huge mess...

Freezing rain - are you kidding me?

Overnight

Snow...sleet and freezing rain. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Additional ice accumulation around a trace. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Friday

Cloudy with freezing rain...rain with a chance of snow in the morning...then mostly sunny with a slight chance of snow in the afternoon.

Cool, sounds like quite the interesting day out there-- its down to 29.8 here lol. Maybe this storm holds the key to what might unfold next week ;)

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When I say "huge mess", I mean it's not likely to verify. Freezing rain is the least likely of all precip. types on the South Fork.

I wonder when the last time was that even happened? I remember Jan 1994 we had an all out ice storm, but the east end warmed above freezing. We had huge sleet storms in the 06-07 winter, but they also rose above freezing out there in those.

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