ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man...the RUC just won't give up with this heavier banding it's developing between 10-11z. We've been keeping an eye on it in the SNE thread....as it makes a big difference up here. I noted that we better start seeing some evidence that band pounds areas as far W as NYC and NE NJ, otherwise this is headed in the direction of the NAM for precip even though the RUC has done a better job of the further NW sfc low and ptype issues for S NJ and near PHL. It seems like mostly ENE movement right now and not much latitude gain for the heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 updated forecast for my area... they added sleet with the fcast Overnight: Snow before 5am, then snow and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. i wouldnt worry too much, mt hollys 3 am forecast said rain til 5 am for me, still snow, heavy now. I mean I could still change over, but them switching the forecast to all rain was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity here. Real nice out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Temp down to 30.7 / moderate snow and the ever popular freezing fog with 0.5 mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've been keeping an eye on it in the SNE thread....as it makes a big difference up here. I noted that we better start seeing some evidence that band pounds areas as far W as NYC and NE NJ, otherwise this is headed in the direction of the NAM for precip even though the RUC has done a better job of the further NW sfc low and ptype issues for S NJ and near PHL. It seems like mostly ENE movement right now and not much latitude gain for the heavier stuff. It's been trying to budge further north with the heavier echoes if you take a look over Central NJ near or northeast of PHL..but it's just not making much progress. It's gotten some heavier echoes up here a few times..and the snow rate has picked up, but then it goes back down again as if it's pulsating. It's got a little bit more time to get it's act together..as the RUC suggests between 10 and 11z...but the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like OKX will bust too high for northern Westchester and Putnam counties - the heavy echoes are missing them to the south. updated forecast for my area... they added sleet with the fcast Overnight: Snow before 5am, then snow and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. EDIT: forecast map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity here. Real nice out there Same here...noticeable increase in intensity with better flake formation. SN/+SN 25.6/24 1.5" new It is an absolute globe of white out there; plows have been passing frequently but school may be a lost cause today. Wherever the coastal front is, we're certainly on the right side of it as temperatures have been in the mid 20s most of the evening. I'm so glad I woke up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks like NE Monmouth County just to the north of the rain/snow line is getting rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Moderate snow here. Morning folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks like NE Monmouth County just to the north of the rain/snow line is getting rocked. Isotherm-land...I wonder if he's home tossing 's or if he is back to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Current Radar- http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DIX&loop=yes Some trouble pushing the heavier precip further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i wouldnt worry too much, mt hollys 3 am forecast said rain til 5 am for me, still snow, heavy now. I mean I could still change over, but them switching the forecast to all rain was ridiculous. well, KISP is now down to 29F with moderate snow and winds from the NE at 8mph so i do hope we're safe now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks like NE Monmouth County just to the north of the rain/snow line is getting rocked. WE'RE getting rocked here too. Easily heavy snow and 500-700 foot visibility. Still the very pasty kind. Good news from the PHL thread is that the cold air is collapsing SE now and areas west of the Jersey Shore are rapidly going to snow. 99.9% chance we're safe from any mix, and hopefully the drier snow works in soon where we can cash in on high ratios. ACY is 41F and rain, so there is definitely some nice frontogenesis going on currently. Our feast is literally south Jersey's famine, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some evidence of north/northeastward moving heavier returns now over NE NJ..we will have to see if we get better dynamic support to hold this like the RUC says ..or if it just pulses up and then fades away again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's been trying to budge further north with the heavier echoes if you take a look over Central NJ near or northeast of PHL..but it's just not making much progress. It's gotten some heavier echoes up here a few times..and the snow rate has picked up, but then it goes back down again as if it's pulsating. It's got a little bit more time to get it's act together..as the RUC suggests between 10 and 11z...but the clock is ticking. It's not going to take much to get the expected 4-6" here in Westchester....really pounding out there with much better ratios than further south. It does look as if some of the heavier echoes in NE Monmouth might be pivoting north, but we'll see. In any case, still plenty of time as the radar is lit up all the way back into the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WE'RE getting rocked here too. Easily heavy snow and 500-700 foot visibility. Still the very pasty kind. Good news from the PHL thread is that the cold air is collapsing SE now and areas west of the Jersey Shore are rapidly going to snow. 99.9% chance we're safe from any mix, and hopefully the drier snow works in soon where we can cash in on high ratios. ACY is 41F and rain, so there is definitely some nice frontogenesis going on currently. Our feast is literally south Jersey's famine, lol. Lol its crazy how that works out sometimes-- definitely seeing the 12/2002 and 12/2003 resemblances here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lol its crazy how that works out sometimes-- definitely seeing the 12/2002 and 12/2003 resemblances here. I remember 12/5/03 to be a pretty dry snow actually. My temp even here didn't get out of the 20s. A few miles southwest was above freezing, which likely helped give rise to the heavy snow we had all that day. A winter weather miracle to say the least since it was supposed to be mostly rain. 12/25/02 though, absolutely. That was some of the wettest, heaviest snow I can remember here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WE'RE getting rocked here too. Easily heavy snow and 500-700 foot visibility. Still the very pasty kind. Good news from the PHL thread is that the cold air is collapsing SE now and areas west of the Jersey Shore are rapidly going to snow. 99.9% chance we're safe from any mix, and hopefully the drier snow works in soon where we can cash in on high ratios. ACY is 41F and rain, so there is definitely some nice frontogenesis going on currently. Our feast is literally south Jersey's famine, lol. TWC radar has the entire south shores of Bklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk under rain on their p-type radar (all the way to the Southern State Pkwy as a matter of fact)-- clueless as always lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like something of a pivot developing in E PA. Hopefully this keeps us in good snow rates on LI until 8am at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've been up since 6 am but the snow is literally keeping me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 TWC radar has the entire south shores of Bklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk under rain on their p-type radar (all the way to the Southern State Pkwy as a matter of fact)-- clueless as always lol. It's quite possible the warm nose at 900mb or whatever made it up to us, but the heavy snow rates saved us from a mix. The algorithm that TWC uses might be seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I remember 12/5/03 to be a pretty dry snow actually. My temp even here didn't get out of the 20s. A few miles southwest was above freezing, which likely helped give rise to the heavy snow we had all that day. A winter weather miracle to say the least since it was supposed to be mostly rain. 12/25/02 though, absolutely. That was some of the wettest, heaviest snow I can remember here. I remember the first day of it was a pasty wet snow which presented for some quite dramatic scenery-- one of my favorites, along with April 2003 for daytime snows. The second day the snow was just dry and meh 12/2002 and 12/2003 were both nice surprises-- and both of those storms had Nassau County in the local area jackpot, shocker right there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 TWC radar has the entire south shores of Bklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk under rain on their p-type radar (all the way to the Southern State Pkwy as a matter of fact)-- clueless as always lol. Keep in mind, radar can't determine between p-types. In fact, they should always mention that on TV, but never do. I don't even know if they are aware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WE'RE getting rocked here too. Easily heavy snow and 500-700 foot visibility. Still the very pasty kind. Good news from the PHL thread is that the cold air is collapsing SE now and areas west of the Jersey Shore are rapidly going to snow. 99.9% chance we're safe from any mix, and hopefully the drier snow works in soon where we can cash in on high ratios. ACY is 41F and rain, so there is definitely some nice frontogenesis going on currently. Our feast is literally south Jersey's famine, lol. That low must just be off the coast still in development based off the land based obs and the buoy just S of you since it is still SSE @ 150 based off the 0850 ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's quite possible the warm nose at 900mb or whatever made it up to us, but the heavy snow rates saved us from a mix. The algorithm that TWC uses might be seeing this. Yeah, this is definitely like a spring time storm, where dynamics trumps everything else. I remember seeing a few really weird scenarios where it was snowing on the south shore and raining in the city (and even NW NJ) and on the north shore in situations where snow rates overcame temps. This actually happened for awhile during the bust storm of Jan 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That low must just be off the coast still in development based off the land based obs and the buoy just S of you since it is still SSE @ 150 based off the 0850 ob. Yup, and temp continues to drop-- now down to 30.1 here. Big differences from the waters just south of here. I wonder if this holds some keys to what might unfold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is definitely like a spring time storm, where dynamics trumps everything else. I remember seeing a few really weird scenarios where it was snowing on the south shore and raining in the city (and even NW NJ) and on the north shore in situations where snow rates overcame temps. This actually happened for awhile during the bust storm of Jan 2008. I actually almost postponed my trip back to State College to see that bust of a storm lol. Models looked very encouraging for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I can confirm no rain here but those temps are stubborn stuck at 33.4 snow is accumulating on all surfaces regardless. Plows plowing every 10 minutes on my street ...again outcome of the December debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I actually almost postponed my trip back to State College to see that bust of a storm lol. Models looked very encouraging for a while. That was the last time we ever had a heavy snow warning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That low must just be off the coast still in development based off the land based obs and the buoy just S of you since it is still SSE @ 150 based off the 0850 ob. Wow. Winds are definitely NE/NNE here. Ambrose Light isn't even 12 miles offshore from here I think. Almost due south, just SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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