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NYC Jan 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


am19psu

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Yes...all of the dynamics and features as well as the coastal low and precipitation seem to be on the western envelope of the tracks from earlier yesterday. I think the city and west is fine..but LI could have issues as well as the NJ coast.

I'm thinking eastern LI could have a problem, since the WAA is still taking place in advance of the low/precip, but I don't see places already snowing hard around here changing to a mix/rain because of a shallow warm layer. It's already coming down to beat the band here and hopefully we're safe.

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The HRRR brings rain or a mix as far north as southern Brooklyn and Queens and the South Shore and Twin Forks of LI. Looks reasonable to me.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011012104&plotName=ptyp_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1

There is a well-defined coastal front running from about Bayonne, NJ through central Brooklyn and then extending east to just south of JFK and along the immediate South Shore of LI. Places right along Great South Bay like South Massapequa, West Islip and East Patchogue are at 34/35F right now.

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The HRRR brings rain or a mix as far north as southern Brooklyn and Queens and the South Shore and Twin Forks of LI. Looks reasonable to me.

http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1

There is a well-defined coastal front running from about Bayonne, NJ through central Brooklyn and then extending east to just south of JFK and along the immediate South Shore of LI. Places right along Great South Bay like South Massapequa, West Islip and East Patchogue are at 34/35F right now.

Wow, stark differences. Im at 31.6 right now and about 4 miles SE of JFK and about 2.5 miles north of Long Beach.

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Wow, stark differences. Im at 31.6 right now and about 4 miles SE of JFK and about 2.5 miles north of Long Beach.

It's probably around 32-33 here and still all snow, no mix whatsoever, although it's a very wet and pasty snow. It's also sticking to all surfaces, about moderate intensity. I'd say maybe close to 1/2 inch on cold surfaces and a coating on sidewalks/warmer surfaces.

Wow, cutting it close. The NE wind is somewhat of a relief though. If the wind were off the water, no doubt it would be a driving cold rain here.

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Snowing at a Decent Clip looking out on Deck have somewhere between 1.5 and 2 Inches..Figure have another 3 or 4 hr window to pick up some good accumulation as long as that warm(Sleet) finger doesn't work into area some heavier bands are just to the South and West of Here..Unless there is a changeover a good chance of getting up to 6 Inches over here..

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It's probably around 32-33 here and still all snow, no mix whatsoever, although it's a very wet and pasty snow. It's also sticking to all surfaces, about moderate intensity. I'd say maybe close to 1/2 inch on cold surfaces and a coating on sidewalks/warmer surfaces.

Wow, cutting it close. The NE wind is somewhat of a relief though. If the wind were off the water, no doubt it would be a driving cold rain here.

Yeah, no doubt that NNE wind is helping out. Also probably a good thing this one is occurring in the middle of the night lol.

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Looking at some of the PWS obs from wunderground, we have Freeport at 32.2, Bellmore at 31.9.... JFK checking in at 32.

This is pretty much exactly the way I remember 12/25/02, the way it currently is outside. Such a pasty, sticky, wet snow. Not at all like the powdery snow from the last systems. Harder to shovel. :(

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This is pretty much exactly the way I remember 12/25/02, the way it currently is outside. Such a pasty, sticky, wet snow. Not at all like the powdery snow from the last systems. Harder to shovel. :(

Also reminds me of the first day of 12/2003 lol-- with a rain/snow line 5 miles to our south the entire day. I actually enjoyed that much more than the second day, because as the temps got colder the snow rates lessened. There's something to be said for being near the line-- as long as you stay just NW of it you get the highest snowfall rates ;)

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Vis now 1/2 mi., perhaps a shade under. SN right near Battery Park.

I'm hitting the sack... setting the alarm for 8 and expecting to see back edge very close, perhaps passed by, and about 4-5" on the ground. Nice lil' fast mover... excited to track next week's linebacker of a storm.

Have fun tonight, NYC crew!

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Also reminds me of the first day of 12/2003 lol-- with a rain/snow line 5 miles to our south the entire day. I actually enjoyed that much more than the second day, because as the temps got colder the snow rates lessened. There's something to be said for being near the line-- as long as you stay just NW of it you get the highest snowfall rates ;)

Really coming down hard outside now, I'd say it has to be heavy snow at this point. Gorgeous scene outside-very calm, little wind, but pouring/ripping snow. Redevelopment and lift really doing its trick.

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