forkyfork Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this doesn't look like wet snow to me... not with 700mb temps below -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this doesn't look like wet snow to me... not with 700mb temps below -10 How's it looking with the latest guidence? 12:1? Anything would be better than the 8:1 heavy stuff I had with the last snow....and we had close to 18 in of that stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RGEM, 996 on tip of LI at hour 24: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z NAM 40km text soundings: LGA: .57" 31-32.3 surface NYC: .55" 31-32.3 surface JFK: .55" 32.5-34.1 surface EWR: .53" 31.5-31.9 surface ISP: .55" 31.1-32.3 surface BDR: .68" 31.8-32.4 surface Do you get a sharp drop off in QPF for HPN? The one site that I went to only has .22 for HPN. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z RGEM, 12 mm thru hour 24, near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Do you get a sharp drop off in QPF for HPN? The one site that I went to only has .22 for HPN. Thanks. HPN is .62" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z RGEM, 12 mm thru hour 24, near NYC. .47 inches. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .47 inches. Nice. Yeah Solid. Also gives us 1-2 more mm after hour 24. So RGEM is in line with NAM with around .50" for NYC area. Here is color hour 24: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow... BUFKIT numbers are impressive.. just came out... I only checked KHPN, but it's got 9.5 inches... Ratios during the heaviest part of the storm are about 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 fyi..... numbers out of KHPN... 110121/0400Z 16 17003KT 29.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0500Z 17 11004KT 30.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0600Z 18 11005KT 30.2F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.2 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/0700Z 19 10005KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0800Z 20 08006KT 30.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 1.2 0.051|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0900Z 21 08007KT 31.1F SNOW 15:1| 1.3|| 2.5 0.087|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1000Z 22 05008KT 31.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.8|| 4.4 0.122|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1100Z 23 04007KT 31.3F SNOW 16:1| 2.1|| 6.4 0.134|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1200Z 24 35008KT 30.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 8.0 0.087|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/1300Z 25 32011KT 29.8F SNOW 24:1| 1.3|| 9.3 0.055|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1400Z 26 32012KT 29.7F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 9.5 0.012|| 0.59 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 fyi..... numbers out of KHPN... 110121/0400Z 16 17003KT 29.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0500Z 17 11004KT 30.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0600Z 18 11005KT 30.2F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.2 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/0700Z 19 10005KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0800Z 20 08006KT 30.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 1.2 0.051|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0900Z 21 08007KT 31.1F SNOW 15:1| 1.3|| 2.5 0.087|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1000Z 22 05008KT 31.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.8|| 4.4 0.122|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1100Z 23 04007KT 31.3F SNOW 16:1| 2.1|| 6.4 0.134|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1200Z 24 35008KT 30.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 8.0 0.087|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/1300Z 25 32011KT 29.8F SNOW 24:1| 1.3|| 9.3 0.055|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1400Z 26 32012KT 29.7F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 9.5 0.012|| 0.59 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 BUFKIT's snow algorithms make it nearly always bust too high....not saying ratios wont be high, but there never as extreme as BUFKIT paints them to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Assuming the GFS at least holds serve, I see no reason why Upton shouldn't upgrade to warnings. With that being said, they probably won't pull the trigger until their normal afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow... BUFKIT numbers are impressive.. just came out... I only checked KHPN, but it's got 9.5 inches... Ratios during the heaviest part of the storm are about 15:1 This has to be about the limit for this system no? I mean 2-4 was looking like a good bet yesterday, now its sounding more like 6-10. Given the speed of this system, I suppose it would have to intensify more rapidly to drop greater amounts than this. Is that even a possibilty ATM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just initialized...let's cross our fingers and hope for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 29.5 with a decent nnw wind here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This has to be about the limit for this system no? I mean 2-4 was looking like a good bet yesterday, now its sounding more like 6-10. Given the speed of this system, I suppose it would have to intensify more rapidly to drop greater amounts than this. Is that even a possibilty ATM? yea, I mean.. I doubt we would get this high of numbers.. I just found it rather impressive so I posted it... hey you never know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LI needs to watch out for the coastal front... mixing issues would not surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This has to be about the limit for this system no? I mean 2-4 was looking like a good bet yesterday, now its sounding more like 6-10. Given the speed of this system, I suppose it would have to intensify more rapidly to drop greater amounts than this. Is that even a possibilty ATM? On the 12z NAM, a very nice banding feature showed up at 21hrs over eastern NJ, western NYC area. It's possible that if this thing gets its act together a tad sooner we could be dealing with 1-2" per hour snowall rates for a time. This is still a quick mover but if someone managed to sqeeze out 1" QPF with ratios in the 12-1 - 15-1 range someone is getting 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea, I mean.. I doubt we would get this high of numbers.. I just found it rather impressive so I posted it... hey you never know though. Well....we can all hope for the best.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For snow ratios I've found this to be fairly accurate http://www.wxalert.info/calc/snow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4-8" seems like a reasonable forecast right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4-8" seems like a reasonable forecast right now... Which would merit a warning for the area I think if the GFS and Euro follow the NAM warnings could be put out by the afternoon update. Or for places east of NYC at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks fine. I'm guessing it spits out .35-.40 or so through 27 hours for NYC. Normal for it to be a bit drier than the mesoscales I would think. GFS is a shift north with the precip swath too. NAM did that as well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hi-res models are quite amplified now, but also they bring warm air close to the NYC area. This is the problem I was worried about-we need a weak system to keep the warm ocean air safely offshore. If it amplifies any more than progged now, parts of the coast may mix over. There's nothing forcing an offshore track or cold air in place whatsoever here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Which would merit a warning for the area I think if the GFS and Euro follow the NAM warnings could be put out by the afternoon update. Or for places east of NYC at least that I would agree with.. As someone said earlier, with St. Louis getting 9" perhaps the models are picking up on the fact that this storm may have have a bit more juice than originally thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hi-res models are quite amplified now, but also they bring warm air close to the NYC area. This is the problem I was worried about-we need a weak system to keep the warm ocean air safely offshore. If it amplifies any more than progged now, parts of the coast may mix over. There's nothing forcing an offshore track or cold air in place whatsoever here. NYC is very cold in the upper levels based off NAM soundings. Only the surface is a little warm, 30-32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Seems like its in by midnight out by 7 and sun's shining by 9 type of deals then we see how cold we can get over the weekend GFS looks fine. I'm guessing it spits out .35-.40 or so through 27 hours for NYC. Normal for it to be a bit drier than the mesoscales I would think. GFS is a shift north with the precip swath too. NAM did that as well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS looks like less QPF than 06z. Especially from PHI on southward. Of course we couldn't get all the models to agree even at less than 24hrs out. I think the main reason for the less QPF is that its such a fast mover, and likely too fast in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The one feature apparent on the models that I love to see is a nice fetch originating out of the GOM. I don't think this system, although fast moving, will have any issues with moisture. Also as the storm intensifies over the Atlantic it has plenty of moisture to work with. The storm will develop over the baroclinic zone just offshore and feed off the warmer waters. For this reason I do believe this more westerly track is likely and like others I worry about some areas dealing with the potential for mixing. I think the areas with the greatest potential for higher snow amounts are NYC and C-N NJ. The best part about this storm is with expectations of 1-3 or 3-5 inches, a delightful surprise is likely for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z UKIE. Hours 18-24 precip and 24 hour SLP. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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