Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No more moon here, clouds have seriously lowered and thickened. I believe some one said last night this low may pop opposite to what guidance would indicate, meaning now looking more south than north per pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why is is it better for us if the low is farther down the coast? Thanks. Just trying to learn. following the current pressure falls, it looks like the coastal moves from near the Delmarva through LI. The further south, the more time for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why is is it better for us if the low is farther down the coast? Thanks. Just trying to learn. It would bring the heaviest precip further south and possibly increase the duration of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If there was ever a system to throw out the models, this is it. I'm very impressed with the current radar trends/pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would bring the heaviest precip further south and possibly increase the duration of the storm Thank you all for your replies. That is what I was thinking but I just wanted to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NEED I SAY MORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Happy someone else is noticing this...look at those pressure falls, we might end up much better than forecasted. woah. Thanks for posting this! Much further South is right! Just out of curiosity, where do you get this image from?? And its about -5mb over the past 3 hrs...what's that bring the current pressure there to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 pleasantly surprised to see those radar returns over the mid-Atlantic states. still thinking 3-6" for the region...still looks like the best snow will fall between 3 and 6am, but if it moves in quicker and lasts just as long, a few people could be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why is is it better for us if the low is farther down the coast? Thanks. Just trying to learn. A low forming further south has more time to deepen thus reducing our chances of missing the better dynamics and dryslotting. In this setup, Don't want it to pop to far south thus missing it as it heads NE, and per current pressure falls it llooks to be in a good spot for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC says disregard the 00z nam THE 00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH INLAND QPF THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH GREATER OFFSHORE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 IN/HR MAY BE RESTRICTED TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE MODERATE RATES WWD. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT IR CLOUD-TOP COOLING AND INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM CNTRL MD INTO ERN PA...SUSPECT THE NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO A PROBABLE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY BETWEEN 07-11Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no wonder no one is complaining anymore...radar returns exploding south of us...look out for a 4-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210530Z - 211030Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-84/95 CORRIDORS FROM ERN PA INTO MA. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR SHOULD OCCUR...MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. ALTHOUGH DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT...HIGH TRAVEL IMPACT ON MORNING RUSH HOUR APPEARS PROBABLE FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TO BOSTON METRO AREAS. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB CYCLONE OVER S-CNTRL PA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD TO LONG ISLAND. 00Z MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY/...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST THROUGH 12Z. STRENGTHENING LOWER-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL RESULT IN ROBUST FORCED ASCENT DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA TO MA. THIS SUPPORTS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF/QSF DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SREF MEAN...GFS...HRRR...AND ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AXIS SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR...WITH RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS 11-14Z. THE 00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH INLAND QPF THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH GREATER OFFSHORE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 IN/HR MAY BE RESTRICTED TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE MODERATE RATES WWD. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT IR CLOUD-TOP COOLING AND INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM CNTRL MD INTO ERN PA...SUSPECT THE NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO A PROBABLE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY BETWEEN 07-11Z. ..GRAMS.. 01/21/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no wonder no one is complaining anymore...radar returns exploding south of us...look out for a 4-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow Tell me about it. Morning rush is going to be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A big hello to the 2010-2011 winter overnight crew...you guys have been killer so far, literally every night. We've got some good stuff here this evening/early this morning. We're just getting started...this one's a quick one...so let's enjoy it while it's here. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tell me about it. Morning rush is going to be interesting to say the least. this will likely be another really nice quick hitting storm, at least the way the radar is looking at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 radar is looking great in the MA region (even impressive down south)... some ppl near Baltimore are under that heavy band that just exploded. Good sign for NJ/NYC/LI... the way the season has gone we should just sit back and enjoy our 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 omg the debbie downers have stopped posting! weather is not a linear science. you can't just look at the radar and say that precip is breaking up over the mountains and thus call a bust if you have no idea what the synoptic situation is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Reporting for duty! Looks like a nice overnight ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 omg the debbie downers have stopped posting! Past bed time Did somebody ask for a regional zoom? Oh...sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 omg the debbie downers have stopped posting! weather is not a linear science. you can't just look at the radar and say that precip is breaking up over the mountains and thus call a bust if you have no idea what the synoptic situation is. Hopefully they all went to sleep lol. There's a reason why things really get going after 1 AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we should start seeing the white stuff in about 30 min from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 latest pressure falls: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Reporting for duty! Looks like a nice overnight ahead Alex, I do agree with you about daytime snow. Anyway, this will be a pretty nice event, just refreshes the ground a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very healthy returns popping up NE of Dover, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to say this, regardless of what may happen from now through March, this has been one of the most memorable stretches of winter weather at least for my location and several areas in this thread as well. It's really just been awesome tracking these storms through the first half of winter with you guys...the overnight crew has been especially awesome. Tonight, we get a chance to continue that...with the ultimate prize falling from the sky for a few hours. So consider this my personal thanks to everybody for making this so fun this winter. I'm sure it helps that we keep getting storm after storm...but you get the point. You guys rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hopefully they all went to sleep lol. There's a reason why things really get going after 1 AM! anyway, no snow here yet.. 29F and a dewpoint of 15F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 latest pressure falls: everything is lining up nicely this could over perform in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 -5mb in 3hrs off DEL... welll how can you say thats bad!?!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The RUC has expanded it's shield of measurable precipitation back to the west a bit on it's 05z run..nothing too amazingly dramatic but it's definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here's the RUC at 10z..it's gone up to about 0.40" liquid for NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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