earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I will say this, the RUC is performing pretty poorly even on it's 2-4 hour forecasts with the timing and intensity of precipitation in Eastern PA. It continues to back off each run..so we will have to watch upstream obs constantly over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gah ruc dryslots most of the area til 8z, but then again it looks like its tryin to pop the coastal faster and farther south, so who knows 0z 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Of course they are ... this is a board for snow enthusiasts, after all. I think I used to be that way, myself... now I try to take a more objective and less emotional approach to a forecast. Truth is, the last few winters have seen many storms (at least the big ones) overperform. But I'm sure you can remember Bust-o-rama winters when 3-6/4-8 became a slushy coating or rain or zippo. Bottom line is that I have had constant snow cover since Boxing Day on the Southern Tip of Manhattan and that in itself is pretty remarkable. So whatever we wind up getting overnight, NYC-ers can't really complain if we get 2 vs. 6. i agree. when was the last time NYC had snow cover for as long at this? dec 26 thru Jan 21 (min) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well the 02Z RUN of the RUC with the new data like the 00Z NAM and GFS just came out and it definitely puts a delay on snow in the southeastern half of CT through all of long island until about 4 or 5 am and has it ending there between 8-10 am yikes.. RUC is usually spot on with start and stop times.. as for everyone north west of that line.. it looks like an 8 hour moderate snow event.. I really think 4" is a good number area wide 3-5" up to 6" jackpot great call by upton.. which is why i still think bad collaboration between offices (even though i got some heat for some reason for saying this before) with albany going for a robust 5-10" in areas 10-15 miles north of me.. and box going 4-8 for all of north central and eastern ct" the gradient won't be that drastic.. i think the jackpot will be tolland and windham counties northeastward toward boston getting 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Like Dan storm said, NYC and other places have had snow cover for weeks, and the snow tomorrow will only help, whether it be 2 or 4". This means that snow cover will most likely persist until 1/26, with cold air here to keep it fresh. A month of snowcover for NYC is imminent. how about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If anything the people that are going to be in trouble are those in E PA and W NJ, not most of the posters here, once the coastal starts the precip back in those areas may start going swiss cheese as often occurs....I have to go downstairs for 30 minutes...when I get back I'll judge the GFS run on the next storm based on how many people are in this thread vs. that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Subsidence seems to be winning out so far over N/C NJ.... I realize we are going to see the dynamics improve as we go through 1/2a.m., so I don't think anyone should be jumping off of bridges yet. Still, this is a pretty neat radar shot... just thinking of the cold air rushing in behind this storm is thrilling: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes I will say this, the RUC is performing pretty poorly even on it's 2-4 hour forecasts with the timing and intensity of precipitation in Eastern PA. It continues to back off each run..so we will have to watch upstream obs constantly over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If anything the people that are going to be in trouble are those in E PA and W NJ, not most of the posters here, once the coastal starts the precip back in those areas may start going swiss cheese as often occurs....I have to go downstairs for 30 minutes...when I get back I'll judge the GFS run on the next storm based on how many people are in this thread vs. that one. Great, what else is new this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snow does start later but definitely looks to be sticking around longer on 3z ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 03z RUC has some delay but eventually recovers..the big UVV's get going over the area just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The best UVV's enter the area just around or after 09z and continue for a few hours. Still looks good for a 3-6 inch event if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting. RUC wants to delay things for a few hours and have it lasting through tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If anything the people that are going to be in trouble are those in E PA and W NJ, not most of the posters here, once the coastal starts the precip back in those areas may start going swiss cheese as often occurs....I have to go downstairs for 30 minutes...when I get back I'll judge the GFS run on the next storm based on how many people are in this thread vs. that one. Nice call on the bridge jump... you can see the initial WAA precip staying to our north ... still waiting to see blossoming echoes in this neck of the woods with the developing coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 11z...sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 what's the ruc 04z radar look like compared to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow John... so according to the RUC, we're looking at some pretty moderate snow falling during the middle of the morning rush - 6-8a.m. looks pretty brutal throughout the entire metro. 11z...sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br>11z...sweet<br><br><img src="http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2011/01/21/03/RUC_255_2011012103_F08_CREF_SURFACE.png"><br> <br><br>That does look pretty tasty... coastal looks to develop just in time - of course, it is the RUC but the RUC has been pretty good of late.<div><br></div><div><img src="http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/popcorn.gif" alt="" class="bbc_emoticon"></div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 11z...sweet I hate, hate, hate being on the southern edge of model guidance. It is a dangerous place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br><br>That does look pretty tasty... coastal looks to develop just in time - of course, it is the RUC but the RUC has been pretty good of late. <div><br></div><div><img src="http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/popcorn.gif" alt="" class="bbc_emoticon"></div> why is it butchering my posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I will say this, the RUC is performing pretty poorly even on it's 2-4 hour forecasts with the timing and intensity of precipitation in Eastern PA. It continues to back off each run..so we will have to watch upstream obs constantly over the next few hours. I hope you don't delete my post on the basis of being too negative, but following your lead, and looking upstream and putting aside the ominous latest computer models projections, I'm concerned about getting dry slotted based upon the direction of the radar echoes and the surface obs. The surface LPS appears to be moving ene consistent with the 500 vort max flow, and the center of it may pass directly over our area, with the bulk of the snowfall passing to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If correct, that delay does make a lot of the kiddo's happy in the NNJ burbs. Also, is the delay due to speed or due to coastal forming further south then expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate, hate, hate being on the southern edge of model guidance. It is a dangerous place to be. You are kind of in nail-biting land... like I said earlier, you never ever want to be on the S side of snows, esp. in a moderate event like this. Way way too many things can go wrong - dry slot, warm nose, ratios, sun angle, ace delivering a ton of ice melter with instructions to spread all over your lawn... you know, the usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hope you don't delete my post on the basis of being too negative, but following your lead, and looking upstream and putting aside the ominous latest computer models projections, I'm concerned about getting dry slotted based upon the direction of the radar echoes and the surface obs. The surface LPS appears to be moving ene consistent with the 500 vort max flow, and the center of it may pass directly over our area, with the bulk of the snowfall passing to our north. Yeah, and that was my concern as well in a post earlier. BUT the coastal ALWAYS changes the radar signature ... which is why living here is so much more interesting than living in a place like C Pa. where what you saw upstream was pretty much what you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i am not worried at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 First flakes here in East Setauket. T - 29 Hum - 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i am not worried at all We outttt... In all seriousness, when is the start time for this since it seems like it could be delayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 flakes the last ten minutes 27 ne 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We outttt... In all seriousness, when is the start time for this since it seems like it could be delayed? 6-7z.... the same as 12z runs were indicating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6-7z.... the same as 12z runs were indicating Oh ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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