jdt Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 10PM Light Snow w/ a coating Temp: 24 DP: 19 Wind: Calm Pressure: 1010.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Floral Park Long Island-Should we still be seeing the moon at 10PM?.Shouldn't the cloud cover be thicker and lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Floral Park Long Island-Should we still be seeing the moon at 10PM?.Shouldn't the cloud cover be thicker and lower? Moon is very bright tonight....There are plenty of times I've seen the moon while its snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So anyone still think we need winter storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So anyone still think we need winter storm warnings? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So anyone still think we need winter storm warnings? Nothing has changed. 3-6" still on tap...what are you trying to imply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some people are so pathetic, this happens all the time!!! The storm has yet to develop. Once it starts, things will change in a hurry in a few hours... wait until the storm actually starts and ends...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Please no "bust" posts until it actually does so, thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So anyone still think we need winter storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RGEM also cut us. Has around 7mm now or about .28". 12z and 18z runs had .40"-.50". Just posting model output not negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RGEM holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the gfs is still .25+ for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RGEM also cut us. Has around 7mm now or about .28". 12z and 18z runs had .40"-.50". Just posting model output not negativity. 1-3"/2-4" is fair- no one in the 5 boros or Nassau will see anywhere near 6" so a 3-6 in my opinion is a bad forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People just remember that tomorrow's storm, even with the reduced numbers, was the only amount of snow we got all winter in 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One person says RGEM cuts amounts while another says RGEM holds... Go figure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1-3"/2-4" is fair- no one in the 5 boros or Nassau will see anywhere near 6" so a 3-6 in my opinion is a bad forecast.... Anyone who sees .3"+ QPF, especially likely on LI, would get like 5" given these ratios. That's why it's a good forecast. Stop with the negativity, the same people always pull this crap and then never admit they busted when they inevitably do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1-3"/2-4" is fair- no one in the 5 boros or Nassau will see anywhere near 6" so a 3-6 in my opinion is a bad forecast.... You should call upton and discuss your situation with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The model is not given enough time to spin up the features now since we are in the very near term. I'm just catching up on this thread and am late in replying, but if you see this can you elaborate on what you mean? I've never heard an explanation like this before about short term modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How many times has this happen ?...system is upon us folks... no need to look at a model to say... hey look at me the system is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone who sees .3"+ QPF, especially likely on LI, would get like 5" given these ratios. That's why it's a good forecast. Stop with the negativity, the same people always pull this crap and then never admit they busted when they inevitably do. He's entitled to an opinion... yes, he tends to lean pessimistic just as you tend to go bullish. Don't take it personally - 1-3/2-4 may end up being a good forecast. 2-4" for NYC Metro would be my call right now, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One person says RGEM cuts amounts while another says RGEM holds... Go figure.. It cut. Black and white maps are easier to see. 18z and 12z had the 10mm shade on us. 0z has no one in the 10mm shade. We are all 5-10mm. So 7mm is a safe guesstimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Upton: "ADJUSTED AND SLOWED THE TIMING OF STEADIER SNOW SLIGHTLY.OTHERWISE...OUR CURRENT AFTERNOON FCST STANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 He's entitled to an opinion... yes, he tends to lean pessimistic just as you tend to go bullish. Don't take it personally - 1-3/2-4 may end up being a good forecast. 2-4" for NYC Metro would be my call right now, too. I don't tend to go bullish....I went 8-12" here for the early January Miller B and actually got 14.5"...I went 12-16" for Boxing Day and had 13.5"....I went with 20" for the 2/25 Snowicane last year and got 26" here in Westchester. So maybe you should actually look at my calls instead of just making things up. How many of my forecasts have you read? There are just the same posters who go pessimistic on every event, and it's tiresome...their nonsense comments should be deleted, in my opinion. For example, Noreaster called for 1-3" in the Snowicane last year...why is he still allowed to post the same garbage? The NYC thread is known as the worst thread on the board because of all the ignorance and a lack of professional, well-reasoned opinions. This is just another example of it being permitted to continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Am I the only one who noticed that a lot of the 0z NAM time stamps on the "fine" (largest) maps on the HPC site are off? FWIW, RUC has been consistent since this afternoon on wanting to hold off precip for LI until around 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Light snow in Putnam County. Solid coating. Est vis ~ 2 miles. 25F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It cut. Black and white maps are easier to see. 18z and 12z had the 10mm shade on us. 0z has no one in the 10mm shade. We are all 5-10mm. So 7mm is a safe guesstimate. Sorry, yes it cut back a bit, I was mearly referring to the forecast idea of 3 to 4" area wide. The area is still in the 7.5 to 10 mm idea which is .3 to .4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 24 degrees here w/light snow. have passed the coating stage, and now have accumulating snow - 1/4 inch ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 dan- 90pct of the people are overly bullish- when storms are over performers they look good....this isnt one of those situations. Of course they are ... this is a board for snow enthusiasts, after all. I think I used to be that way, myself... now I try to take a more objective and less emotional approach to a forecast. Truth is, the last few winters have seen many storms (at least the big ones) overperform. But I'm sure you can remember Bust-o-rama winters when 3-6/4-8 became a slushy coating or rain or zippo. Bottom line is that I have had constant snow cover since Boxing Day on the Southern Tip of Manhattan and that in itself is pretty remarkable. So whatever we wind up getting overnight, NYC-ers can't really complain if we get 2 vs. 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Listen, I just deleted a whole crap load of posts. I don't want to have to do this all night. Please enjoy the snow. Everybody here is more mature than what was displayed the past few hours. Thanks in advance dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Listen, I just deleted a whole crap load of posts. I don't want to have to do this all night. Please enjoy the snow. Everybody here is more mature than what was displayed the past few hours. Thanks in advance dudes. thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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