Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NYC Jan 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 962
  • Created
  • Last Reply

RGEM also cut us. Has around 7mm now or about .28".

12z and 18z runs had .40"-.50".

Just posting model output not negativity.

1-3"/2-4" is fair- no one in the 5 boros or Nassau will see anywhere near 6" so a 3-6 in my opinion is a bad forecast....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1-3"/2-4" is fair- no one in the 5 boros or Nassau will see anywhere near 6" so a 3-6 in my opinion is a bad forecast....

Anyone who sees .3"+ QPF, especially likely on LI, would get like 5" given these ratios. That's why it's a good forecast. Stop with the negativity, the same people always pull this crap and then never admit they busted when they inevitably do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The model is not given enough time to spin up the features now since we are in the very near term.

I'm just catching up on this thread and am late in replying, but if you see this can you elaborate on what you mean? I've never heard an explanation like this before about short term modeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone who sees .3"+ QPF, especially likely on LI, would get like 5" given these ratios. That's why it's a good forecast. Stop with the negativity, the same people always pull this crap and then never admit they busted when they inevitably do.

He's entitled to an opinion... yes, he tends to lean pessimistic just as you tend to go bullish.

Don't take it personally - 1-3/2-4 may end up being a good forecast.

2-4" for NYC Metro would be my call right now, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's entitled to an opinion... yes, he tends to lean pessimistic just as you tend to go bullish.

Don't take it personally - 1-3/2-4 may end up being a good forecast.

2-4" for NYC Metro would be my call right now, too.

I don't tend to go bullish....I went 8-12" here for the early January Miller B and actually got 14.5"...I went 12-16" for Boxing Day and had 13.5"....I went with 20" for the 2/25 Snowicane last year and got 26" here in Westchester. So maybe you should actually look at my calls instead of just making things up. How many of my forecasts have you read?

There are just the same posters who go pessimistic on every event, and it's tiresome...their nonsense comments should be deleted, in my opinion. For example, Noreaster called for 1-3" in the Snowicane last year...why is he still allowed to post the same garbage? The NYC thread is known as the worst thread on the board because of all the ignorance and a lack of professional, well-reasoned opinions. This is just another example of it being permitted to continue..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It cut. Black and white maps are easier to see.

18z and 12z had the 10mm shade on us.

0z has no one in the 10mm shade.

We are all 5-10mm. So 7mm is a safe guesstimate.

Sorry, yes it cut back a bit, I was mearly referring to the forecast idea of 3 to 4" area wide. The area is still in the 7.5 to 10 mm idea which is .3 to .4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

dan- 90pct of the people are overly bullish- when storms are over performers they look good....this isnt one of those situations.

Of course they are ... this is a board for snow enthusiasts, after all. I think I used to be that way, myself... now I try to take a more objective and less emotional approach to a forecast.

Truth is, the last few winters have seen many storms (at least the big ones) overperform. But I'm sure you can remember Bust-o-rama winters when 3-6/4-8 became a slushy coating or rain or zippo.

Bottom line is that I have had constant snow cover since Boxing Day on the Southern Tip of Manhattan and that in itself is pretty remarkable. So whatever we wind up getting overnight, NYC-ers can't really complain if we get 2 vs. 6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...