earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 He means a thin layer of warm air at a specific height in the atmosphere. In this case it looks like 925mb at least based on the posted map. Correct. It's a nose of warm air advection that's bringing temperatures above freezing around 925mb..and it's also pretty warm at the surface. We saw a warm nose with the event a few days ago around 925-850mb as well..where the surface was still in the 20's and 30's but the warm air advection punched above freezing temperatures into that area..changing many people over to sleet. This one is thin and shallow..but could cause problems. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My map Warm nose or no nose, lets hope we can get our repective 2 - 2.5 inches to break 40" for the Season. Mt. Holly doesn't seem too concerned about warming this far north (Monmouth Co.) but... these north jogs every run and RUC are a bit concerning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This has not really been an eastern LI year. Jackpot totals are west of the city.. Hey, I don't need the jackpot...I remember plenty of years with very little or no snow. So needless to say I'm quite happy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Correct. It's a nose of warm air advection that's bringing temperatures above freezing around 925mb..and it's also pretty warm at the surface. We saw a warm nose with the event a few days ago around 925-850mb as well..where the surface was still in the 20's and 30's but the warm air advection punched above freezing temperatures into that area..changing many people over to sleet. This one is thin and shallow..but could cause problems. We shall see. Looks like it stays away from the south shore of Nassau County, although the temps would be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This has not really been an eastern LI year. Jackpot totals are west of the city.. The place to be on Long Island this year has been from eastern Nassau to central Suffolk. The area got good snowfalls from both storms.... eastern Nassau got 20 inches in the first event and 15 inches in the second; central Suffolk got the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Warm nose or no nose, lets hope we can get our repective 2 - 2.5 inches to break 40" for the Season. Mt. Holly doesn't seem too concerned about warming this far north (Monmouth Co.) but... these north jogs every run and RUC are a bit concerning? I think the usual suspects up to about Belmar/se Monmouth will have their issues, but I'm not too worried for our areas of Monmouth, especially by me. I'm more concerned that we don't get the heaviest qpf more than anything. 4" sounds good for us http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/final-update-on-tonight-s-snowstorm-with-map-included-brace-for-the-cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The place to be on Long Island this year has been from eastern Nassau to central Suffolk. The area got good snowfalls from both storms.... eastern Nassau got 20 inches in the first event and 15 inches in the second; central Suffolk got the opposite. I'm in riverhead, not really far eastern LI,but far enough....Just thought I'd clear that up. We actually did pretty well with both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm in riverhead, not really far eastern LI,but far enough....Just thought I'd clear that up. We actually did pretty well with both storms. My brother has an 11am meeting in Riverhead and was asking me if he should cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My brother has an 11am meeting in Riverhead and was asking me if he should cancel it. I have to work tom. in the hamptons leaving at 6am.....that should be fun..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have to work tom. in the hamptons leaving at 6am.....that should be fun..... Me and a group of fellow meteorology majors have a 9AM flight out of KEWR to the American Meteorological Society Conference (oh, the irony!) tomorrow morning. Should be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At work, so don't have the capability of uploading my map: 3-6 for SE NY, NYC, LI and N NJ. CT is under 3-6, but highlighted eastern CT, especially tolland /windham counties as closer to 5-7, maybe locally 8". 4-6 is the call for Danbury. Climo and trends favor ther best banding across inland CT and NEward into eastern MA. eastern LI will probably be on the low end of 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm I think could be one of those which surprises one way or the other in that its got hit potential to not follow the current guidance by going well north or south of where forecast...I could see this doing exactly that, winding up so far north NYC sees 2 inches or south where it was modeled yesterday and alot of these high amounts in CT and SE NY bust severely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At work, so don't have the capability of uploading my map: 3-6 for SE NY, NYC, LI and N NJ. CT is under 3-6, but highlighted eastern CT, especially tolland /windham counties as closer to 5-7, maybe locally 8". 4-6 is the call for Danbury. Climo and trends favor ther best banding across inland CT and NEward into eastern MA. eastern LI will probably be on the low end of 3-6 When do you expect the accumulating snow to leave the city and immediate suburbs? Around 8 am or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the usual suspects up to about Belmar/se Monmouth will have their issues, but I'm not too worried for our areas of Monmouth, especially by me. I'm more concerned that we don't get the heaviest qpf more than anything. 4" sounds good for us http://www.examiner....ce-for-the-cold Yes, RGEM has us just inside its .40 -10mm sweet spot. So I'm gonna hug that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm I think could be one of those which surprises one way or the other in that its got hit potential to not follow the current guidance by going well north or south of where forecast...I could see this doing exactly that, winding up so far north NYC sees 2 inches or south where it was modeled yesterday and alot of these high amounts in CT and SE NY bust severely. I could see us getting less than the 4-6 being forecast, but probably not more than that, even if it goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I think we're in nowcast mode now considering snowfall is only a few hours away. We'll see what happens, either we hit the forecast or bust on the positive or the negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I could see us getting less than the 4-6 being forecast, but probably not more than that, even if it goes south. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2000/us0113.php This is the one that always gives me nightmares when I forecast for these events...the pattern was different but it was a La Nina event that went well north of where it was expected...NYC was forecast to get 3-6 inches...we got rain...Cooperstown and Oneonta saw 8-12 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 22/20 here.. Low is forecasted to get down to 17... Getting ready for some high snow ratios tonight... NWS Albany has mentioned the possibility of 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Flurries have commenced in Blairstown, Warren County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...2000/us0113.php This is the one that always gives me nightmares when I forecast for these events...the pattern was different but it was a La Nina event that went well north of where it was expected...NYC was forecast to get 3-6 inches...we got rain...Cooperstown and Oneonta saw 8-12 inches of snow. 1/22/05 was a nightmare for me personally because the clipper that spawned the coastal system was supposed to track through KY and VA, and have its heaviest stripe of snow go roughly through I-80. Instead, it was closer to I-90 and the 10-15" forecast for me in State College turned to 5" at the end. One of the wickedest dryslots I can ever remember. It went from almost blinding snow to broken clouds in 20 minutes. Of course, Long Beach had over 15" and the flagpole in front of my house blew down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 18z GFS also takes the low over NYC, so I think that aided in the warm nose punching further north, but every other model has this basically 3-6" for most areas, and less for areas with warmer air involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 18z GFS also takes the low over NYC, so I think that aided in the warm nose punching further north, but every other model has this basically 3-6" for most areas, and less for areas with warmer air involved. the low from hour 12-18 goes from extreme south central PA to just SE of montauk. Doesn't really come very close to being on top of NYC but your point about the warm nose is true, but even on the GFS it doesn't make it far enough north to introduce mixing concerns for anyone but immediate coastal areas in suffolk and monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nitpicking here, but the surface low is sub 1008mb as of the 00:30z observations. Most guidance from 12z had the surface low just slightly stronger than 1012mb at 0000z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Also, for the very little that it's worth...the RUC gives us a few hours of heaven later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the low from hour 12-18 goes from extreme south central PA to just SE of montauk. Doesn't really come very close to being on top of NYC but your point about the warm nose is true, but even on the GFS it doesn't make it far enough north to introduce mixing concerns for anyone but immediate coastal areas in suffolk and monmouth Oh, I saw a big 1008mb low over NYC. lol but I'm looking forward to this mini-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Also, for the very little that it's worth...the RUC gives us a few hours of heaven later tonight. Has some very heavy stuff right over me here in Elizabeth(kean)... seems to be a trend for this area this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Has some very heavy stuff right over me here in Elizabeth(kean)... seems to be a trend for this area this year Ur at kean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ur at kean? Yea..... meteorology program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh, I saw a big 1008mb low over NYC. lol but I'm looking forward to this mini-event. I look forward to any snow, 2in or otherwise. I'm also expecting about 5-7(my prediction) up here in westchester but we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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