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PHL JAN 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


tombo82685

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I kinda like that the NAM is dumping all the QPF in about 6 hours starting just after 6Z...

True. Using the eastern PA border as a reference, here is 6Z, the green returns are just touching the PA/NJ border:

nam_ref_012s.gif

12Z green returns leaving the border, almost exactly 6 hrs:

nam_ref_018s.gif

using the range .25-.50 precip, that is ~.042"/hr - ~.083"/hr, or if 10:1 ratios, .42-.83" of snow per hour for 6 hours, which is pretty good intensity.

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Route 33 pre treated with salt brine from Saylorsburg south to I78.

Had to take my youngest to the DR. And they were doing Rte 23 up here. And the main rds here in town too

I guess Schuylkill County is the only one that DOESN'T brine the roads anymore. They stopped doing it last year, and they haven't done it this year either. I wonder if it has to do with funding and budgets. Anyway, 30.7 here and partly sunny. We did have a brief period of light snow between 2:00 and 2:30 this afternoon.

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I guess Schuylkill County is the only one that DOESN'T brine the roads anymore. They stopped doing it last year, and they haven't done it this year either. I wonder if it has to do with funding and budgets. Anyway, 30.7 here and partly sunny. We did have a brief period of light snow between 2:00 and 2:30 this afternoon.

I would guess as much. When I was back home and visiting relatives in Hamilton (opposite side of Trenton from Ewing), I noticed that all the residential streets had been brined on Christmas... that *NEVER* happens in poor cash-strapped Ewing...

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Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks

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RUC/HRRR/RR bringing the surface low right up through C PA. 925mb to the surface are pretty warm for S. PA. On a positive note, the precip shield looks rather nice on the reflectivity images.

That low pressure would really need to crank to reach that position, based on the latest mesoanalysis. Precip shield is in good agreement with the GFS and NAM.

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Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks

There is potential for there to be a slot that gets screwed, due to the redevelopment of the low off the coast. This slot would likely be in eastern PA, including the Poconos. QPF isn't THAT robust up there so I think the great Gorse made the right call. I don't think I would've gone with warnings either. We'll see soon enough.

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Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks

updated afd:

"

FOR NOW, ADDED MODERATE SNOW TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.

GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND BETTER RATIOS ACROSS THE NORTH, WE

THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO A WARNING

HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING HITTING 6 INCHES ACROSS A

WIDESPREAD AREA. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY BUT

INCREASE THE AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT."

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