famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah I guess I have to include philly in my 'feel bad zone' since they didn't get the big totals in the blizzard either. Well, parts of Philly didn't. A band extending NNW - SSE thru the airport had a foot or so. More than I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Route 33 pre treated with salt brine from Saylorsburg south to I78. Had to take my youngest to the DR. And they were doing Rte 23 up here. And the main rds here in town too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I kinda like that the NAM is dumping all the QPF in about 6 hours starting just after 6Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 New NAM has a thick isothermal layer down to the surface at PHL at 9Z... likely the heavy precip will try to stay off the low-level warming, or so the NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't like that too much...nothing really for Berks and south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't like that too much...nothing really for Berks and south/east. Its the RUC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I kinda like that the NAM is dumping all the QPF in about 6 hours starting just after 6Z... True. Using the eastern PA border as a reference, here is 6Z, the green returns are just touching the PA/NJ border: 12Z green returns leaving the border, almost exactly 6 hrs: using the range .25-.50 precip, that is ~.042"/hr - ~.083"/hr, or if 10:1 ratios, .42-.83" of snow per hour for 6 hours, which is pretty good intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the flizzard is still good to go sat night/sun morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z American WRF showing 3-6" for ABE on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 . the radar looks like their is some "gulf tapping" going on to me.....that wasn't supposed to happen........was it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the radar looks like their is some "gulf tapping" going on to me.....that wasn't supposed to happen........was it?? i was waiting for a met or pro to chime in about this it has a tail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pretty strong low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Route 33 pre treated with salt brine from Saylorsburg south to I78. Had to take my youngest to the DR. And they were doing Rte 23 up here. And the main rds here in town too I guess Schuylkill County is the only one that DOESN'T brine the roads anymore. They stopped doing it last year, and they haven't done it this year either. I wonder if it has to do with funding and budgets. Anyway, 30.7 here and partly sunny. We did have a brief period of light snow between 2:00 and 2:30 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I guess Schuylkill County is the only one that DOESN'T brine the roads anymore. They stopped doing it last year, and they haven't done it this year either. I wonder if it has to do with funding and budgets. Anyway, 30.7 here and partly sunny. We did have a brief period of light snow between 2:00 and 2:30 this afternoon. I would guess as much. When I was back home and visiting relatives in Hamilton (opposite side of Trenton from Ewing), I noticed that all the residential streets had been brined on Christmas... that *NEVER* happens in poor cash-strapped Ewing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The brine truck came down my street around 3:00 this afternoon ... TWICE! I guess I can expect my taxes to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RUC/HRRR/RR bringing the surface low right up through C PA. 925mb to the surface are pretty warm for S. PA. On a positive note, the precip shield looks rather nice on the reflectivity images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RUC/HRRR/RR bringing the surface low right up through C PA. 925mb to the surface are pretty warm for S. PA. On a positive note, the precip shield looks rather nice on the reflectivity images. That low pressure would really need to crank to reach that position, based on the latest mesoanalysis. Precip shield is in good agreement with the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Meso models are trending north with the qpf. TTN may be cutoff for 3 inch snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks There is potential for there to be a slot that gets screwed, due to the redevelopment of the low off the coast. This slot would likely be in eastern PA, including the Poconos. QPF isn't THAT robust up there so I think the great Gorse made the right call. I don't think I would've gone with warnings either. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Solid 0.20"-0.40" across eastern PA on the 18z RGEM between 6z-18z Friday. Probably 0.05"-0.10" prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt Holly is keeping advisories for the LV north even the QPF has risen. I am really surprised they did not go with winter storm warnings even though there would be widespread six inch amounts in LV and Poconos. They said their confidence was low. Simply raising the amount of snowfall in the forecast IMHO defeats the purpose of the warning criteria and throws consistency out the window. I know we have burned in the last few storms with meeting the warning criteria but considering that this storm has overproduced snowfall west of us should be considered when keeping the advisory criteria. Thanks updated afd: " FOR NOW, ADDED MODERATE SNOW TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND BETTER RATIOS ACROSS THE NORTH, WE THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO A WARNING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING HITTING 6 INCHES ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY BUT INCREASE THE AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Solid 0.20"-0.40" across eastern PA on the 18z RGEM between 6z-18z Friday. Probably 0.05"-0.10" prior to that. I like that finger of 10 mm in central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll tell ya all, its a lot nicer to end a stretch of shifts by watching a storm back east than it is to start one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like that finger of 10 mm in central NJ. Maybe, just maybe the "bullseye" stripe travels I-78 from eastern PA into northern Jersey, right through ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't see any models moving much more northward, It is time to watch radar trends now not models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Feel like a general 4" snowfall in upper bucks sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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