mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea its mainly phl immediate burbs, the 925mb low tracks right over ahead or just to the north and warms them. Plus other alittle further south would bring greater precip totals and better ratios in. Agree on being south bringing more precip. The 12z runs increased more for NYC than PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 just looked at the sounding for phl, they are almost isothermal at hr 21. They have 925 and 950 mbs layers at .3 and .5 above frz at hr 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Approximate GGEM QPF: PHL: 0.30 TTN: 0.34 ILG: 0.27 ABE: 0.33 RDG: 0.30 ACY: 0.23 GED: 0.13 MPO: 0.32 SMQ: 0.36 NXX: 0.32 LNS: 0.29 BLM: 0.34 NYC (for good measure): 0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 phl and surronding burbs need the low to go south a hair more. 12Z nam and gfs change them over to rain PHL gets just a hair above freezing on the NAM... if it was perfect I'd guess it'd barely stay snow. GFS is slightly colder. I don't think the models change them over verbatim, but just south of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 interesting update coming out currently by rob guarino http://www.liveweath...-FLY-RIGHT-NOW- He should really cross-check that radar with surface obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 PHL gets just a hair above freezing on the NAM... if it was perfect I'd guess it'd barely stay snow. GFS is slightly colder. I don't think the models change them over verbatim, but just south of PHL. yea its close on the gfs. Its the stupid 925mb low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 He should really cross-check that radar with surface obs... i was thinking the same thing as i read that! it is hard for me to believe the models will be drastically off this close to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i was thinking the same thing as i read that! it is hard for me to believe the models will be drastically off this close to the storm And that radar he posted is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z euro is exactly the same as 0z for qpf. Its alittle further south with the .25 getting it into central/northern bucks and montco co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z euro is exactly the same as 0z for qpf. Its alittle further south with the .25 getting it into central/northern bucks and montco co PHL might struggle to get to 3... but 3-6 is still looking good for TTN and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 PHL might struggle to get to 3... but 3-6 is still looking good for TTN and NYC at a closer look, it actually doughnut holes ttn, looks like .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Rob g saying 3-6 for philly leaning towards the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 phl and surronding burbs need the low to go south a hair more. 12Z nam and gfs change them over to rain The NAM's all snow on the raw data...where is it showing rain>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 PHL might struggle to get to 3... but 3-6 is still looking good for TTN and NYC Agreed the nudging trends have been to take the main axis of precipitation a bit further north, away from PHL itself, and slightly warm things up down around the city (and points south and east). Maybe its just a slushy inch or two from Phila. county, south and east, then 2-4 inches north and west of there til about I-78 in eastern PA, and maybe 3-6" north of there for our snow hungry NE PA folks. In NJ, I-195 may divide the 1-2" south from the 3-5" north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NAM's all snow on the raw data...where is it showing rain>? well its prob sleet, its close to isothermal, look at hr 21 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kphl.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well its prob sleet, its close to isothermal, look at hr 21 http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_Kphl.txt got it...mix and/or rain ... could be a situ where the airport is 1" of slop while Mt Airy gets 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well its prob sleet, its close to isothermal, look at hr 21 http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_Kphl.txt I think you want a much higher level for the near freezing temps for sleet... it needs time to refreeze on the way back down. Might be rain snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 PHL gets just a hair above freezing on the NAM... if it was perfect I'd guess it'd barely stay snow. GFS is slightly colder. I don't think the models change them over verbatim, but just south of PHL. For this storm for some reason I was not even worried about the rain factor according to most of the weather (NWS,) sites they did not even mention rain. Gotta hope the storm stays further s/e I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you want a much higher level for the near freezing temps for sleet... it needs time to refreeze on the way back down. Might be rain snow mix. what is scary though, is usually waa, is underdone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I might be wrong but the EURO @ 24 hours has a 996 low, while the GFS & NAM @ 24 hours have a 1000mb low, nothing too big of a difference, but notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro is looking interesting for early next week, high is in a much better spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitki2 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Make it the EURO work Tom!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 its snowing for the whole region at hr 126 except southern del...looks like the low may hug or track about 100 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 tracks just off the coast basically del canal bridge to toms river is the changeover from snow to rain. Weak low, sub 1012, so not a lot of hvy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its snowing for the whole region at hr 126 except southern del...looks like the low may hug or track about 100 miles off the coast. Cold high pressure near Maine seems to be holding up a bit better this run. Low is still weak, though, definitely sounds less amplifed than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its snowing for the whole region at hr 126 except southern del...looks like the low may hug or track about 100 miles off the coast. huh? Is it a miller B situation? Do you mean it is rain in S. DE or no precip? I think we have a thread for that storm too, may be better posting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold high pressure near Maine seems to be holding up a bit better this run. Low is still weak, though, definitely sounds less amplifed than 0z. the high is a heck of a lot better spot, instead of moving ene, it moves nne over caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 huh? Is it a miller B situation? Do you mean it is rain in S. DE or no precip? I think we have a thread for that storm too, may be better posting there. there are already people in there doing it. Whats the pt of having 3 ppl spilling the same info? So im just going to keep it local for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 138 looks like sub 1008 low about 100 miles east of lewes....hr 144 sub 1004 about 150 miles east of toms river, looks to be captured in the next frame or two..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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