famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hi, How about BLM? QPF anf does it look warmish? BLM: 0.26 Yes it does look warmish, there's a chance you go over to rain for sure. Surface temp rises to 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bout 1".....lol Ya'd think that with all the brains in here...we could assume from surrounding qpf outputs what we may get. When it says 3" to the west AND east of you...you can do the math right ? Nut Uh, the difference between .33 and .28 is .05, so only about a half inch snow difference. I can't believe people are worried about a half inch of snow difference, especially if you are in an area that already received 2 big storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BLM: 0.26 Yes it does look warmish, there's a chance you go over to rain for sure. Surface temp rises to 34F. Though you might say that. Hopefully being 12 - 15 miles inland from there will help. During the Jan 11 event BLM was 34 and raining for a bit while Freehold was 31 and -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BGM's going quite aggressive tonight. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 16. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before 10am, then a chance for flurries. High near 23. West wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. That is pretty aggressive but in their text product issuing the WWA they are only going 3-5". I don't like forecasting snowfall totals based on what the potential ratios will be, until there is a concrete idea of what they are going to be. But the storm is mighty impressive already and is showing signs of possibly being stronger then the models are forecasting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BLM: 0.26 Yes it does look warmish, there's a chance you go over to rain for sure. Surface temp rises to 34F. Don't know why Mount Holly hasn't acknowledged the warming trend. There is still a general area-wide prediction of 1-3" of snow, even across southern and coastal DE. Perhaps sleet would be more likely than rain because 850's don't warm above freezing in NJ on the GFS. It might happen briefly between hours but I'm not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Though you might say that. Hopefully being 12 - 15 miles inland from there will help. During the Jan 11 event BLM was 34 and raining for a bit while Freehold was 31 and -SN. Yeah, as you might have guessed, I meant BLM might go over to rain, not Freehold. I'd guess Freehold will be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't know why Mount Holly hasn't acknowledged the warming trend. There is still a general area-wide prediction of 1-3" of snow, even across southern and coastal DE. Perhaps sleet would be more likely than rain because 850's don't warm above freezing in NJ on the GFS. It might happen briefly between hours but I'm not seeing it. You may want to read the updated AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 11:30 Mt Holly update: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --WE CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THE INCOMING 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ASSOCIATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES NEAR THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT INLAND. THE 12Z NAM/WRF HAS A RATHER ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET THAT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE KACY SOUNDING SHOWING NEARLY 55 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS MILDER AIR INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE PROFILE LEADING TO RAIN. SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL JET. THE NAM/WRF ALSO HAS THE SURFACE LOW TUCKED IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE INCOMING GEM ALSO HAS A SURFACE LOW NEARLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR THUS FAR WITH THIS GENERAL TRACK. THIS WOULD ALL POINT TO A POSSIBLE START AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY BE SUCH AS IT WORKS RIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA, ALLOWING LESS QPF TO OCCUR THERE. AS A RESULT OF THIS, THE SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FOR THESE AREAS. THEREFORE, OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST, A COLDER AIRMASS WOULD FAVOR MUCH BETTER SNOW GROWTH AND HIGHER RATIOS. FOR NOW, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE HEADLINES OR AMOUNTS AS WE WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...RAPIDLY IMPROVING SKY COVER ALONG WITH BREEZY AND COLD WEATHER WILL COMMENCE. THIS COLD...BREEZY WEATHER WILL LAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS ARE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Nice job, as always, Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You may want to read the updated AFD. Indeed, good to see that they are waiting to see the rest of the 12z guidance. Mabye some northern areas can get a winter storm watch/warning later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Indeed, good to see that they are waiting to see the rest of the 12z guidance. Mabye some northern areas can get a winter storm watch/warning later. Criteria being 6" up there, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, as you might have guessed, I meant BLM might go over to rain, not Freehold. I'd guess Freehold will be safe. Thanks Ray, I did want BLM as if BLM hovers 34, Freehold is usually safe. NAM, SREF's look a tad colder here, but I fear this thing is gonna bomb an hour or two early so need to keep that track a hair or two east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's the SUNY MM5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NMM storm total. Very solid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW storm total. Solid as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z WRF ARW Total precip as of 12z Friday. 12Z WRF NMM Total precip as of 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Criteria being 6" up there, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that. Agreed, and probably too late to even issue a watch, which may have been warranted had last night's 0z guidance been in the .4 - .5 liquid eqiv. range for northern 1/3 of the Mt. Holly CWA. Warning would be pushing it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks good to my rookie eye. its racing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RUC and HRRR bring the low farther north than any other model...through east PA. Northern PA gets the most snow while I-78 south gets about 2-3" extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As per the radar...looks like we see flakes pre 7 PM? I was hoping to see some snow falling tomorrow in the daylight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RUC and HRRR bring the low farther north than any other model...through east PA. Northern PA gets the most snow while I-78 south gets about 2-3" extrapolating. Looks like a very weak secondary low forms off the VA capes, sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RUC and HRRR bring the low farther north than any other model...through east PA. Northern PA gets the most snow while I-78 south gets about 2-3" extrapolating. that sounds good to me. we need to get some good snow up that way to make the snowmobiling better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 phl and surronding burbs need the low to go south a hair more. 12Z nam and gfs change them over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 phl and surronding burbs need the low to go south a hair more. 12Z nam and gfs change them over to rain Depends on elevation, I think chester county is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Depends on elevation, I think chester county is ok. i dont consider them surrounding burbs. They are pretty far west. Im talking immediate metro area, within 10-15 miles of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Depends on elevation, I think chester county is ok. Here's GFS surface. Looks ok for many: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's GFS surface. Looks ok for many: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_024l.gif yea its mainly phl immediate burbs, the 925mb low tracks right over ahead or just to the north and warms them. Plus other alittle further south would bring greater precip totals and better ratios in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think anyone with over 400 ft elevation in the philly area is ok, At this point it's best to watch radar trends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think anyone with over 400 ft elevation in the philly area is ok, At this point it's best to watch radar trends.. yea its going to be very close, bot the nam and gfs just barely get it up to phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 interesting update coming out currently by rob guarino http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4151/NOWCASTING...RADAR-&-MODELS-DO-NOT-MATCH-UP...CHANGES-ON-THE-FLY-RIGHT-NOW- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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