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PHL JAN 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


tombo82685

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Hauling coal out of a very deep stripping pit with a 15% grade. It's one of the last roads on the property to get cleared. Seriously though, I probably need to look for another job, as I can't have this every week all winter.

I grew up in sch. Haven

Correct Tom.

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Loving the more amplfied solutions in the 12z models so far. 3-6" looks like a safe bet for the region.

Yeah, I would take a safe bet on that. It's nice to see an event like this finally where everyone sees a similar amount. My guess is that most people will see 4-5", maybe 3" around PHL.

12Z GFS:

gfs_p36_036s.gif

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how does the 12gfs look, by comparing to 6z it looks to me to be a little less for eastern pa.

Looks like PHL just misses out on the 0.25", but the rest of PA sees 0.25"+. Between the NAM and GFS, the surface low actually travels pretty close and in a nice spot, it just doesn't organize fast enough to get some of the best QPF out of it. At the same time, temps are a little warmer now.

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BGM's going quite aggressive tonight.

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 16. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 10am, then a chance for flurries. High near 23. West wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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What's with the IMBY QPF requests? If it's .28 or .33, what's the difference?

Bout 1".....lol

Ya'd think that with all the brains in here...we could assume from surrounding qpf outputs what we may get. When it says 3" to the west AND east of you...you can do the math right ?

Nut

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