tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs ens support the op .25-.5, maybe even a little wetter with .5-.75 going across cape may county into southern del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 ggem going .2+ like the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW/NMM look pretty light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW/NMM look pretty light how much .1-.25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 how much .1-.25? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 yup u got a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 u got a link http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE they're in the middle top right of model choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE they're in the middle top right of model choices thanks...I think snowgoose mentioned this, that the nmm is the same as the nam, the arw isnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the odds of good ratios are pretty high... 15:1 is a decent bet, perhaps more if you're lucky. Still keeping my 3-6 "gun to the head" call from Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the odds of good ratios are pretty high... 15:1 is a decent bet, perhaps more if you're lucky. Still keeping my 3-6 "gun to the head" call from Tuesday ray when the 6z nam shows .1 for ttn ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 fwiw the 3z srefs are a good bit wetter, ray can ease on the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam wetter phl .25 all of nj through abe to rdg .3-.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 3z sref indiv total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt holly has throw out advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY UNTIL 4:00PM EST Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2011 New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including The Cities Of...Wilmington...Dover...Georgetown... Rehoboth Beach...Elkton...Chestertown...Centreville...Easton... Denton...Pennsville...Glassboro...Camden...Cherry Hill... Moorestown...Mount Holly...Jackson...Millville...Hammonton... Cape May Court House...Ocean City...Atlantic City... Long Beach Island...Wharton State Forest...Media...Philadelphia ...Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 7 PM This Evening To 7 AM EST Friday... The National Weather Service In Mount Holly Has Issued A Winter Weather Advisory For Snow...Which Is In Effect From 7 PM This Evening To 7 AM EST Friday. • Precipitation Type: Snow. • Accumulations: Two To Three Inches. Highest Near Metropolitan Philadelphia And Southern New Jersey. • Timing: Beginning After 7 PM And Lasting For About 12 Hours. • Impacts: Slippery Road Conditions And Reduced Visibilities. Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... A Winter Weather Advisory Means That Periods Of Snow...Sleet...Or Freezing Rain Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Slippery Roads And Limited Visibilities...And Use Caution While Driving. && Bulletin Issued: Thursday, January 20, 2011 3:35 AM EST Bulletin Expires: Thursday, January 20, 2011 4:00 PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 335 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING... NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-202100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.110121T0000Z-110121T1400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 335 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: THREE TO FOUR INCHES. HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * TIMING: BEGINNING AFTER 7 PM TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 First advisory posted is for the southern half...the next one posted is for the northern half. Mount Holly generally going with 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW, the GFS and NAM at 6z bring rain for a time (at least a mix) to the DE Beaches and perhaps Cape May. GFS is bit less juicy on this run compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW, the GFS and NAM at 6z bring rain for a time (at least a mix) to the DE Beaches and perhaps Cape May. GFS is bit less juicy on this run compared to 0z. gfs brings rain to bout bear delaware, bout 10 miles south of wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs brings rain to bout bear delaware. 6z NAM looks much more amplified, as I commented in the NYC thread. I doubt Mt. Holly is going to upgrade to a warning but Upton could since a lot of QPF falls at 30 hrs for NYC metro...it gets pretty far down the Jersey Shore too with the 1004mb coastal just offshore. There's definitely a NW trend starting, again. 6z GFS looks about the same. PHL sees a bit more than .25" QPF while NYC is probably around .35" QPF. Not a bad storm with these ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z NAM looks much more amplified, as I commented in the NYC thread. I doubt Mt. Holly is going to upgrade to a warning but Upton could since a lot of QPF falls at 30 hrs for NYC metro...it gets pretty far down the Jersey Shore too with the 1004mb coastal just offshore. There's definitely a NW trend starting, again. 6z GFS looks about the same. PHL sees a bit more than .25" QPF while NYC is probably around .35" QPF. Not a bad storm with these ratios. phl is .3-.35 on the gfs... all snow, but like i said just 30 or so miles to there south its a mix or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 phl is .3-.35 on the gfs... all snow, but like i said just 30 or so miles to there south its a mix or rain. One final tick NW and PHL-NYC could approach warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs brings rain to bout bear delaware, bout 10 miles south of wilmington bottom layer FTL. I looked at the temp profile after I posted my comment (I look at the 850's only initially) and yeah, the bottom layer "torches" a bit on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 One final tick NW and PHL-NYC could approach warning criteria. honestly i dont want another tick nw, cause that would bring mixing issues into phl, and prob to parts of li to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS ensembles are really wet but they look warm south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS ensembles are really wet but they look warm south of Philly. yea they are, nyc is almost close to mixing on the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 honestly i dont want another tick nw, cause that would bring mixing issues into phl, and prob to parts of li to. Exactly...if anything DE and NJ would want a bit weaker solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Whoa, waking up to a little more excitement (a touch more QPF) and a little more worry (for mixing issues SE of PHL) this morning. Interesting....12z NAM is about to roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z NAM a little closer to the coast. QPF across eastern PA ranges from 0.25"-0.50" (highest in Pike Country in NE PA). Jersey ranges from about 0.20" near Cape May to 0.60" in extreme northern Jersey. Northern DE in the 0.15"-0.25" range. 850s climb just above 0C across southern Jersey overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so yes the precip outputs are going up slightly but wouldnt the snow ratios also be trending down as well...so instead of 15-1 we could be headed down to the 10 or 12-1 range. I think the calls of 2-4 for central jersey and 3-5 to the north to NYC look pretty good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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