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PHL JAN 20/21 Obs and Discussion Thread


tombo82685

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I'll tell you what folks, despite the misses on the blizzard and a couple of other events, since the surprise snow on Thanksgiving morning, this has really unfolded so far as a classic winter.

Agreed, even if it didn't snow another flake the rest of the winter, I wouldn't be too upset. With that said, whether next weeks storm tracks inland, or off the coast, we should see our seasonal snow totals go up atleast some either way.

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I'll tell you what folks, despite the misses for those of us to the north and west of philly on the blizzard and a couple of other events, since the surprise snow on Thanksgiving morning, this has really unfolded so far as a classic winter.

True.

And I think I posted on Thanksgiving how Novembers snow make me nervous for the following winters. Some years, it turns out like 1987 or 1989. Other years it turns out like 1995. So far so good. Snowman.gif

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Excellent Map as the Rain Snow line litterally setup over my BY. One mile north of me got 3" while 1 mile south got under an inch. MBY in the battlezone split the difference with about 1.8.

Very tight gradient down here as well. 2.8" here and 0.3 in Newark De about 7 mi SE (and lower elevation)

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just curious, which model would we say performed the best with this storm?

I mentioned this earlier, but the GFS overall seemed best from early in the week to the actual storm. EC seemed too dry and weak, GEM and NAM were too strong/wet. I'm most impressed that the GFS beat the EC.

The other thing of note is that the GFS was pretty rock solid steady throughout... something to watch for with the next system (and obviously, its not there yet in any model other than the fact they're showing a bomb). Note that this post doesn't have anything to do with areas outside of our region, GFS might've blown chunks in Maine or elsewhere, honestly I don't know ;)

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just curious, which model would we say performed the best with this storm?

I would have to say that RUC model that nailed the warm push into the immediate PHL burbs, DE and NJ.

NAM was poor leading into the event..GFS was solid for the QPF overall and track of the low.

Not sure what occurred in my local area, but I seemed to have the lowest snowfall total in the area. Metuchen was also low which is down the road from me

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I would have to say that RUC model that nailed the warm push into the immediate PHL burbs, DE and NJ.

The RUC overdid the warm push further north however, bringing it all the way up to NYC which clearly didn't happen (much to Tom's disappointment ;) ).

I've checked out of the next threat thread for now. All anyone wants to do over there is hug the snowiest model. Yeah I know, big surprise, but its annoying. I might show back up in a couple threads when its worth it.

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The RUC overdid the warm push further north however, bringing it all the way up to NYC which clearly didn't happen (much to Tom's disappointment ;) ).

I've checked out of the next threat thread for now. All anyone wants to do over there is hug the snowiest model. Yeah I know, big surprise, but its annoying. I might show back up in a couple threads when its worth it.

It's a disaster over there, although its good for a chuckle or two. It seems like some of them along the coast forgot they received 15-25 inches back in December. Like they are owed a big hit of snow.

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It's a disaster over there, although its good for a chuckle or two. It seems like some of them along the coast forgot they received 15-25 inches back in December. Like they are owed a big hit of snow.

If PHL can get 3 or more inches in the next storm if one occurs, and a few inches in FEB and March, this would be on heck of a 2 year run for for the area and a past decade.

We had some rotten winters over the past 15 years that I have been following weather

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The RUC overdid the warm push further north however, bringing it all the way up to NYC which clearly didn't happen (much to Tom's disappointment ;) ).

I've checked out of the next threat thread for now. All anyone wants to do over there is hug the snowiest model. Yeah I know, big surprise, but its annoying. I might show back up in a couple threads when its worth it.

but rayyyyy, you dont trust the gfs over the euro tongue.gif

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but rayyyyy, you dont trust the gfs over the euro tongue.gif

Remember what I said for the threat that became this morning? (paraphrased) "Trust nothing... particularly not the GGEM since its got the worst stats of any global, but also not the EC til it shows some consistency."

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The RUC overdid the warm push further north however, bringing it all the way up to NYC which clearly didn't happen (much to Tom's disappointment ;) ).

I've checked out of the next threat thread for now. All anyone wants to do over there is hug the snowiest model. Yeah I know, big surprise, but its annoying. I might show back up in a couple threads when its worth it.

why i dont know but i jumped over to accuweather forums to read some posts about next week :huh:

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Compilation of NJ totals... will put the maps together shortly. This time I tried to eliminate all duplicates to save me the trouble of doing it when I'm making the maps.

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
  ATLANTIC CITY ASOS                T   700 AM  1/21                          
  ESTELL MANOR                      T   800 AM  1/21                          
  PLEASANTVILLE                     T   700 AM  1/21                          
  Buena Vista Twp 2.6 NNE           T   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...BERGEN COUNTY...
  GARFIELD                        4.6   807 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  NORTH ARLINGTON                 4.4  1000 AM  1/21  PUBLIC          
  1 E SADDLE BROOK TWP            4.2   600 AM  1/21  COCORAHS         
  RIDGEWOOD                       4.2   700 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  OAKLAND                         4.0   700 AM  1/21  PUBLIC       
  1 SSE GLEN ROCK                 4.0   700 AM  1/21  COCORAHS                      
  MIDLAND PARK                    4.0   919 AM  1/21  COOP OBSERVER  
  1 W TENAFLY                     4.0   700 AM  1/21  COCORAHS              
  Oakland 0.2 WNW                 3.9   730 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  MAHWAH                          3.8   810 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER
  Palisades Park 0.2 WNW          3.7   900 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
  Burlington 1.7 E                1.8   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  DELRAN TWP                      1.6   630 AM  1/21                          
  MOUNT LAUREL                    1.5   656 AM  1/21                          
  Moorestown Twp 0.6 SE           1.2   858 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  MOUNT HOLLY                     1.1   700 AM  1/21                          
  WRIGHTSTOWN                     1.0   700 AM  1/21                          
  Medford Twp 2.4 SSE             1.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Mount Laurel Twp 0.8 SSW        0.8   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Southampton Twp 2.4 NW          0.5   900 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
  PENNSAUKEN                      1.3   729 AM  1/21                          
  CHERRY HILL                     0.6   829 AM  1/21                          
  LINDENWOLD                      0.4   839 AM  1/21                          
  SOMERDALE                       0.3   700 AM  1/21                          
  Winslow Twp 3.5 W               0.3   710 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Berlin Twp 0.6 WNW                T  1000 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
  WEST ORANGE                     5.2   700 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  MONTCLAIR                       5.0  1100 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  CEDAR GROVE                     4.8   740 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  MILLBURN                        4.4   700 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  NEWARK AIRPORT                  4.4  1100 AM  1/21  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER   

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
  VERGA                           1.5   701 AM  1/21                          
  Mantua Twp 1.5 E                1.0   530 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  NATIONAL PARK                   0.6   700 AM  1/21                          
  GLASSBORO                       0.3   728 AM  1/21                          
  Franklin Twp 2.7 W              0.2   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...HUDSON COUNTY...
  HARRISON                        5.0   800 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  HOBOKEN                         4.7   730 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  KEARNY                          3.5   800 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
  Bethlehem Twp 0.6 S             5.5  1100 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Califon 0.6 NW                  4.5   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Lebanon 2.8 N                   4.5   600 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  CLINTON                         4.4   920 AM  1/21                          
  High Bridge 0.6 WNW             4.2   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  WHITEHOUSE STATION              4.0   830 AM  1/21                          
  Stockton 4.4 NW                 4.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Clinton Twp 3.9 N               4.0   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Lebanon 3.2 SW                  4.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Readington Twp 2.0 WSW          3.8   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Flemington 0.3 E                3.6   630 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  FLEMINGTON                      3.5   800 AM  1/21                          
  WERTSVILLE                      3.5   730 AM  1/21                          
  Franklin Twp 2.8 NNE            3.4   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Flemington 2.3 E                3.4   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...MERCER COUNTY...
  Pennington 0.6 ENE              4.0   850 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  EWING                           3.8   549 AM  1/21                          
  Lawrence Twp 1.0 NNW            3.3   530 AM  1/22  CoCoRaHS
  Lawrence Twp 1.8 SSW            3.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  YARDVILLE                       2.5   624 AM  1/21                          
  Washington Twp 1.7 WSW          2.4   730 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Princeton Twp 2.2 SSE           2.2   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  HIGHTSTOWN                      2.1   700 AM  1/21                          
  WASHINGTON CROSSING             2.0   700 AM  1/21                          

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
  CHEESEQUAKE                     3.9   730 AM  1/21                          
  EAST BRUNSWICK                  3.5   717 AM  1/21                          
  FORDS                           3.5   725 AM  1/21                          
  North Brunswick Twp 1.7 NE      3.3  1059 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE              3.2   700 AM  1/21  COOP
  North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W       3.2   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  METUCHEN                        2.6   610 AM  1/21                          
  PLAINSBORO                      2.5   610 AM  1/21                          

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
  MORGANVILLE                     3.0   842 AM  1/21                          
  FREEHOLD                        3.0   800 AM  1/21                          
  Holmdel Twp 0.7 E               2.5   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Red Bank 1.3 NW                 1.9   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  CREAM RIDGE                     1.6   638 AM  1/21                          
  Howell Twp 2.5 W                1.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  MANASQUAN                       0.4   700 AM  1/21                          
  Eatontown 1.2 NE                0.4   600 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...MORRIS COUNTY...
  MARCELLA                        4.8   935 AM  1/21                          
  Rockaway Twp 0.7 NE             4.8   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  LAKE HOPATCONG                  4.7   841 AM  1/21                          
  Mount Olive Twp 2.1 WNW         4.7   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Randolph Twp 2.1 ESE            4.7   730 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Roxbury Twp 1.7 S               4.6   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Harding Twp 2.6 NNW             4.6   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  GREEN POND                      4.5   705 AM  1/21                          
  Mine Hill Twp 0.4 NE            4.5   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Chatham 0.6 NW                  4.5   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Jefferson Twp 2.4 ENE           4.4   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Randolph Twp 2.0 E              4.4   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  ROCKAWAY                        4.3   856 AM  1/21                          
  Randolph Twp 0.8 W              4.3   600 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp 2.1 E 4.3   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Denville Twp 2.0 NNE            4.2   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  BUTLER                          4.0   732 AM  1/21                          
  LONG HILL TWP                   4.0   615 AM  1/21                          
  Rockaway 0.4 NNW                4.0   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Boonton Twp 1.6 SSE             4.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...OCEAN COUNTY...
  Jackson Twp 4.1 NNW             0.8   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Jackson Twp 2.4 NE              0.5   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Point Pleasant Beach 0.5 SW       T   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Berkeley Twp 2.9 ENE              T   900 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
  CLIFTON                         4.5   845 AM  1/21  PUBLIC   
  1 WNW LITTLE FALLS              4.3   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS                               
  HAWTHORNE                       4.1   715 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  WAYNE                           4.0   702 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  HASKELL                         4.0   900 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  Hawthorne 1.0 SSE               4.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  WEST MILFORD                    3.9   700 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  1 S WANAQUE                     3.7   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS  
  West Milford Twp 3.2 NE         3.7   600 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
  Bernards Twp 0.6 NNW            4.5   720 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Bernards Twp 0.9 ENE            4.3   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  POTTERSVILLE                    4.2   715 AM  1/21                          
  BRANCHBURG PARK                 4.2   900 AM  1/21                          
  SOMERVILLE                      4.1   800 AM  1/21                          
  NW BRIDGEWATER TWP              4.0   746 AM  1/21                          
  NESHANIC                        4.0   715 AM  1/21                          
  Bernards Twp 0.7 NW             4.0   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Bridgewater Twp 1.9 W           3.9   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  BELLE MEAD                      3.5   745 AM  1/21                          
  SOMERSET                        3.4   710 AM  1/21                          
  Franklin Twp 3.8 ENE            3.4   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  HILLSBOROUGH                    3.3   730 AM  1/21                          
  Montgomery Twp 3.0 NE           3.0   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Montgomery Twp 1.8 NNE          2.5   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
  SUSSEX 2 NW                     4.7   700 AM  1/21  COOP
  Wantage Twp 2.4 SW              4.7   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  SPARTA                          4.5   837 AM  1/21                          
  Hardyston Twp 3.2 SE            4.3   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  WANTAGE                         4.0   725 AM  1/21                          

...UNION COUNTY...
  1 ESE NEW PROVIDENCE            4.0   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
  CLARK                           3.8   730 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  GARWOOD                         3.8   645 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  
  ELIZABETH                       3.8   800 AM  1/21  SKYWARN SPOTTER         
  WESTFIELD                       3.5   700 AM  1/21  PUBLIC                  

...WARREN COUNTY...
  Blairstown Twp 2.0 SE           5.3   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Allamuchy Twp 1.7 NNW           5.2   800 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  BLAIRSTOWN                      4.5   600 AM  1/21                          
  HACKETTSTOWN                    4.5   613 AM  1/21                          
  Independence Twp 2.8 SE         4.5   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Liberty Twp 1.7 WSW             4.2   500 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  Washington 0.6 ENE              4.0   600 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  BELVIDERE                       3.8   700 AM  1/21                          
  STEWARTSVILLE                   3.6   820 AM  1/21                          
  Greenwich Twp 1.6 S             3.6   700 AM  1/21  CoCoRaHS
  PHILLIPSBURG                    3.5   651 AM  1/21                          
  RIEGELSVILLE                    3.5   730 AM  1/21                         

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