Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Glenn 1-2" for Philly at 11pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I saw Earthight posted the latest RUC maps in the NYC weenie thread. Looks decent for most of NJ going into extreme eastern PA. Smally delay but not denied. Not really too concerned if it is 2 inches of 5 inches. I expect around 4 inches in Edison when all said and done..maybe around 3.5 inches HRRR posted in the previous page says you'll get 3, with 3-4 at NYC. Big gradient NW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ooh Glenn has 1-2" all the way up to Quakertown Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ouch... Yeah that was a kick in the pants. Oh well, on to the 1993 redux on the 0z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WGAL dude just said don't expect more than a dusting in Lancaster and points SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here above freezing and absolutely nothing happening. Clear view of the moon through some high clouds. i love posts like this......... people giving "local obs" but providing no location whatsoever.... none.... not in the post.... not in the poster's profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to me like the greatest pressure falls are much further SE than what the models are showing. I would think this is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow has stopped at my location at ABE........... Lucky if we have a quarter inch... Going to need to snow really hard these next few hours to hit that 4-6 number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to me like the greatest pressure falls are much further SE than what the models are showing. I would think this is a good sign. You may be right. This thing's evolving to the extent the HiRes models are a bit herky jerky. The latest run for me was discouraging, but some of us may be in for some wrinkles we didn't expect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One thing I'll definitely say is that the band that's trying to organize just north of DC will make or break this system... especially in areas that have yet to see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Good band breaking out now just upstream from Allentown, looks to be heading right for north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One thing I'll definitely say is that the band that's trying to organize just north of DC will make or break this system... especially in areas that have yet to see a flake. looking at that on the local radar down there it looks like the precip/virga is developing and expanding overhead down there, as opposed to simply moving thru from west to east (or sw to ne). so is that going to expand north and engulf NJ or something far less encouraging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I got moderate snow falling, temp 31.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah that was a kick in the pants. Oh well, on to the 1993 redux on the 0z GFS! Mainly rain in the cities OK, I just broke my own rule... back to the current storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looking at that on the local radar down there it looks like the precip/virga is developing and expanding overhead down there, as opposed to simply moving thru from west to east (or sw to ne). so is that going to expand north and engulf NJ or something far less encouraging? Yeah it should expand north and east. Its a matter of how long it stays around and how intense it gets which will determine ultimate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Now i am concerned for my area, doughnut hole of death still not filled in as of midnight. would certainly hedge my expectations down to somewhere between 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One thing I'll definitely say is that the band that's trying to organize just north of DC will make or break this system... especially in areas that have yet to see a flake. Definitely, though unless the radar fills in substantially, even that band isn't going to be a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah it should expand north and east. Its a matter of how long it stays around and how intense it gets which will determine ultimate snowfall. it looks better with each new frame and is the only encouraging thing i've seen all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Mainly rain in the cities OK, I just broke my own rule... back to the current storm... yea ray, shame on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Precip really breaking out now north of BWI and in E. PA. Everyone will get their snow, show some patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yea ray, shame on you I was wondering where you were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it looks better with each new frame and is the only encouraging thing i've seen all night. This band is essentially what the NAM and GFS have been keying on with their higher QPF in central NJ and SE PA up to NYC. Its just a matter of whether it can really get its act together enough to produce like the earlier runs, or if it has trouble like the latest GFS and NAM suggest. Just a note, so far this evening I've only expressed "concerns" about my forecast, I haven't actually altered anything We'll just have to sit back and watch now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just started here, I landed at phl at 10:20. There was snow aloft SW of the airport at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was wondering where you were tracking the rainstorm on the ggem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This band is essentially what the NAM and GFS have been keying on with their higher QPF in central NJ and SE PA up to NYC. Its just a matter of whether it can really get its act together enough to produce like the earlier runs, or if it has trouble like the latest GFS and NAM suggest. Just a note, so far this evening I've only expressed "concerns" about my forecast, I haven't actually altered anything We'll just have to sit back and watch now... I happen to like when you express concerns and or updates as things move along...you where very good with that 2 events ago where we got 4-8. Its nice to have someone updating how things are going,,,and not just post preciep output from a short range model......snowgoose also does the same as you in the nyc thread...its def apprciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems like those pressure falls are happening as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems like those pressure falls are happening as predicted. If you take a look at the higher res pressure falls, you can see the low looks to pop near VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well I was hoping we could declare this a bust so I dont have to get up in 3 hours to plow. Oh well looks like we will get something, probably 2-3 for my area but I wouldnt mind looking at the window to pavement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snowing nicely now @21.1...passing the 1" mark for Acc.,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If you take a look at the higher res pressure falls, you can see the low looks to pop near VA. Pressure falls really don't define where the low center is located/forming, at least from what I've learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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